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The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 01:13PM
Poll
Dudes and dudettes, this is a tsunami?
Only registered users are allowed to vote for this poll.
8 votes were received.
Good practice for the real thing because we get a nasty one every 2 or 3 hundred years. 5
 
63%
Oops, we cried wolf. Ignore us next time. 3
 
37%



5AM - Tsunami sirens start going off all up and down the Oregon Coast.

Reverse 911 begins calling everyone and warning them to run for their lives.

All the local news media interrupt regular programming, rush their cameras down to the coast and begin to show non-stop footage of 1-2 foot waves pounding the coast.

10:50AM -largest tsunami wave yet hits the coast - a little over 2 feet, pushes inland 5 feet.

Emergency gurus issue an all clear (never mind... )
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: bazookaman
Date: March 11, 2011 01:15PM
It's kind of like when they canceled school b/c of the snow forecast and it didn't actually start snowing until 5 or 6 o'clock in the evening.




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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: March 11, 2011 01:15PM
It was the prudent thing to do. Until we know better, it should be standard operational procedure whenever you have a major earthquake of this type.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: March 11, 2011 01:15PM
I would WAY rather have a LITTLE over-reaction than thousand of dead piled up like cordwood in my coastal california town...

Unfortunately, it's (apparently) damn difficult to be certain how BIG a Tsunami is going to be after it crosses the Pacific.



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

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Eureka, CA
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: rz
Date: March 11, 2011 01:17PM
I've lived in Florida for almost 17 years. Every summer we get predictions for hurricanes, which usually turn out to be nothing. But sometimes (summer of 2004 comes to mind) they end up being pretty serious.

Yeah, so this time it was a non-event. But I bet if they hadn't sounded the warnings, and there was even one life lost to rising waters, they would have slammed the Emergency Management folks for not warning people.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 01:20PM
I agree with the above, consider it a useful drill and have gratitude that your area was spared.
I've been on the Washington and Oregon coasts when the sirens were going off for tsunami drills. It's annoying, but it reminded everybody to think about tsunami escape routes.
There has been loss of life from tsunamis on the west coast as recently as 1964, we're always vulnerable to this.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 01:21PM
My favorite part of the programming was as the commentators were spieling doom and gloom monologues while showing an "ominous" view of the waves a guy casually jogged by.

Thing is, the worst case scenario is going to be when an earthquake strikes just off the coast. In that case there will be very little time to get to high ground, maybe a matter of minutes.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: hal
Date: March 11, 2011 01:31PM
"Thing is, the worst case scenario is going to be when an earthquake strikes just off the coast. In that case there will be very little time to get to high ground, maybe a matter of minutes."

that is an extremely rare event, but a massive earthquake in california or alaska is much less rare and could generate a tsunami capable of wiping out vast areas of the OR or WA coast, but with a good deal of warning time.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: M A V I C
Date: March 11, 2011 01:34PM
I forget which coastal town it was, but one in Oregon has the signs that show you the tsunami evacuation route. They go in a circle. I guess the locals figured the highway wouldn't fit all the locals and tourists, so they would jam up the tourists while they took the real route out of town.




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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: March 11, 2011 01:38PM
Bad news...
At least four dead in Crescent City, CA :-(

Swept out to sea.



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

--

--

--
Eureka, CA
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 01:52PM
That is tragic, haven't heard that. Crescent City, which is about 20 miles south of the Oregon border, was the town that lost a dozen or so people in the '64 tsunami, which was triggered by a huge quake in Alaska.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: March 11, 2011 01:59PM
I'm getting snippets of news that say the harbor of Crescent City is completely destroyed... with at least four dead.

Nothing compared to what's going on in Japan, but Crescent City is not a very big town, and this is HUGE for their economy...

I'm 90 miles south of Crescent City.



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

--

--

--
Eureka, CA
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 02:10PM
Quote
hal
"Thing is, the worst case scenario is going to be when an earthquake strikes just off the coast. In that case there will be very little time to get to high ground, maybe a matter of minutes."

that is an extremely rare event, but a massive earthquake in california or alaska is much less rare and could generate a tsunami capable of wiping out vast areas of the OR or WA coast, but with a good deal of warning time.

The Oregon coast is in the Cascadia Subjunction Zone which makes for the worst local tsunamis. A massive earthquake in Cal or Alaska has some risk for the Oregon Coast, but not nearly as much as an earthquake located offshore in the subjunction plates. According to studies there is a 10 to 14% chance for a major local tsunami generated by an earthquake every 50 years. Warning time would be 10 to 30 minutes in such an event and loss of life would be in the thousands. This type of event is what they should be preparing people for.

This time they had good data from the buoys and satellites about both the size and arrival time of the waves. Not sure what good it does to set off the sirens 3 to 5 hours ahead of what they knew would most likely be a relatively minor event on our coast.

When the real thing happens people will have as little as 10 minutes to get to high ground, which would be at least 100 feet. I'm just saying, if this comes to pass anytime soon how many will die because they remember the last time when they were dragged out of their houses at 5AM to sit around in a school gymnasium until noon and watch 2 foot waves roll in, then decided this time there's no big hurry.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: steve...
Date: March 11, 2011 02:12PM
”The harbor has been destroyed,” said Crescent City Councilman Rich Enea in a phone interview at 9:45 a.m. “Thirty-five boats have been crushed and the harbor has major damage. Major damage.”

Del Norte County Sheriff Cmdr. Bill Steven said most of the docks at the harbor are gone. Additionally, a recent surge filled the entire harbor and they are expecting that some of the other waves could send water into the harbor's parking lot, Steven said.


Times-Standard



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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: March 11, 2011 02:15PM
I know I'll be branded as an insensitive prick for this... but one TV news outlet just announced one dead in "northern california" (probably Crescent City, but they didn't say...) after being swept out to sea while standing on the beach taking pictures of the waves....

Chlorine for the gene pool...

I'll reserve my sympathy for the Japanese, and for the people in Crescent City who have lost their livelihoods to the harbor damage, who had the good sense to get off the damn beach!



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

--

--

--
Eureka, CA
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: hal
Date: March 11, 2011 02:24PM
Paul - you're insensitive

Have some sympathy for people that don't know better... their kids, their mom's are going to miss them... and you might even know one of them - wouldn't you feel like a turd if you find out that you know the family of one of the victims?

I understand you view, but you aren't thinking really...
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: March 11, 2011 02:28PM
If it turns out he was a tourist, or new to the area, I'll retract my statement.
If he WAS in Crescent City, and a local, he damn well knew better - or damn well should have! They have drills several times a year, public programs on what to do, and what NOT to do, in a Tsunami alert... not to mention the police have the beaches BLOCKED OFF.

Yes, I am assuming some details not in evidence (where he was, for one)...
But NO ONE who has lived on the west coast any period of time has not been exposed to what to do in a Tsunami alert; you STAY THE HELL AWAY FROM THE WATER UNTIL YOU GET THE ALL CLEAR!



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

--

--

--
Eureka, CA
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 02:31PM
As for those Oregon warnings...

1 missing, 4 rescued as tsunami hits West Coast

JAYMES SONG and MARK NIESSE | March 11, 2011 03:20 PM EST | AP


HONOLULU — The Coast Guard is searching for a man swept out to sea in Northern California while taking pictures of tsunami waves.

Nearby, authorities in Brookings, Ore., say four people have survived after a tsunami surge swept them off a beach in Curry County and into the sea.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: haikuman
Date: March 11, 2011 02:39PM
I would encourage you to proceed to the Mouth of the Columbia river or SS Beach, The Wilson, the Trask, The Nestucca, Nehalem, Sandy and utter rivers for early Spring run Salmon *(:>*

Rudie *(:>*



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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: btfc
Date: March 11, 2011 02:46PM
[www.latimes.com]
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: billb
Date: March 11, 2011 03:19PM
danm
I was watching a live feed of a CG helicopter flying over either Santa Cruz or Crescent City earlier.
Water was going up and down within the same depths as the tide - just every thirty minutes instead of several hours.
Should have kept watching .....



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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 03:49PM
Cities trumpet new disaster plan
Lincoln City, Newport to launch new tsunami early warning system in 2011


When a devastating tsunami struck Indonesia in 2004, many were saved because of an unexpected phenomenon: elephants on the coast bolted from their pens and headed inland, en masse.
As communities along the Oregon Coast continue to enhance and update their planning and preparation for the threat of tsunamis, they are taking those lessons to heart.

That’s right. Starting Friday, April 1, 2011, as many as 15 Asian elephants will be lodged in new holding pens near the shoreline at various points throughout Lincoln County. Oregon Zoo staffers, along with “mahouts,” elephant wranglers from the Elephant Nature Park in Thailand, are helping train fire department and CERT volunteers on care and feeding of these massive early-warning devices. “They’re like sirens,” Kusz said. “Only they don’t rust, they never forget … and they’re affordable: you can feed them for peanuts. Literally.”




Elephant Tsunami Alert System
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 03:59PM
Quote
haikuman
I would encourage you to proceed to the Mouth of the Columbia river or SS Beach, The Wilson, the Trask, The Nestucca, Nehalem, Sandy and utter rivers for early Spring run Salmon *(:>*

Rudie *(:>*

Mmmm.... Spring Chinook, yum. I'd rather wait for the local Indians to show up around town selling them off the backs of their pick-up trucks.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: pqrst
Date: March 11, 2011 06:06PM
Think of it as practice for the Cascadia fault when it goes. [en.wikipedia.org] It is a subduction fault just like the one in Japan. In southern California, we have parallel faults which are much less likely to create tsunamis. There still are posted tsunami evacuation route signs on coastal roads.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/11/2011 06:17PM by pqrst.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: pqrst
Date: March 11, 2011 06:13PM
Quote
Grace62
That is tragic, haven't heard that. Crescent City, which is about 20 miles south of the Oregon border, was the town that lost a dozen or so people in the '64 tsunami, which was triggered by a huge quake in Alaska.

The underwater geography of Crescent City apparently makes it particularly prone to tsumanis. There are some underwater canyons which are thought to funnel the force directly into the harbor. [www.triplicate.com] By the way, we should all give thanks to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Network. part of NOAA, for giving such timely warnings. [en.wikipedia.org]
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 06:41PM
Quote
pqrst
Think of it as practice for the Cascadia fault when it goes. [en.wikipedia.org] It is a subduction fault just like the one in Japan. In southern California, we have parallel faults which are much less likely to create tsunamis.

I sincerely hope to be no longer living (or not living here) if that bad boy comes along. I know that the cities of this region are always working on that, but we aren't close at this point to knowing how to handle something of this magnitude.

A magnitude 8 or 9 subduction quake, which happens every 500 to 600 years just off Western Washington/Oregon is very, very different than the California quakes. Those are bad enough, but nothing like this.
The shaking would last for 4 minutes at around 9.0 and thousands of people would be killed instantly. The tsumani would be around 30 feet and would wipe out the entire Hwy 101 area and also do damage all the way over to the Cascades, cutting off transportation in all directions and basically cutting off the entire region. It would happen too quickly and be too powerful for the warning systems to help much. The last one was in 1700, when the area's inhabitant's did not use any written language and so left no record. But we have the earth to tell us what happened, and the records of the related tsunami that hit Japan the next day.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: M A V I C
Date: March 11, 2011 07:13PM
Quote
Grace62
A magnitude 8 or 9 subduction quake, which happens every 500 to 600 years just off Western Washington/Oregon is very, very different than the California quakes. Those are bad enough, but nothing like this.
The shaking would last for 4 minutes at around 9.0 and thousands of people would be killed instantly. The tsumani would be around 30 feet and would wipe out the entire Hwy 101 area and also do damage all the way over to the Cascades, cutting off transportation in all directions and basically cutting off the entire region. It would happen too quickly and be too powerful for the warning systems to help much. The last one was in 1700, when the area's inhabitant's did not use any written language and so left no record. But we have the earth to tell us what happened, and the records of the related tsunami that hit Japan the next day.

I thought it was about every 300 years, with the last one in 1700?




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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 07:31PM
The intervals for the last 13 are 300 to 900 years, so in order to sleep at night I'll go with the average.

I have also heard something about a 40 percent chance of this happening within the next 50 years, and that the tsunami could be 80 to 100 feet. That'll be bye bye birdie so no use worrying.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 11, 2011 08:52PM
Now should we move on to volcanoes?
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: haikuman
Date: March 11, 2011 09:10PM
devil smileyGood thing some of you are are going to heaven you will already be 0n high ground *(:>*



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"






Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/11/2011 09:34PM by haikuman.
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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Grace62
Date: March 11, 2011 09:26PM
Quote
Wags
Now should we move on to volcanoes?

We'll know way ahead of time if this beauty is gonna blow. Would be an awful mess for sure but I think most people would be out of the way.

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Re: The Great Oregon Tsunami Event!
Posted by: Wags
Date: March 12, 2011 12:13AM
Quote
Grace62
Quote
Wags
Now should we move on to volcanoes?

We'll know way ahead of time if this beauty is gonna blow. Would be an awful mess for sure but I think most people would be out of the way.


True that, to a certain extent, as far as eruptions go. But, a massive lahar event can happen without warning and there's 150,000 people living on top of the last one that took place 500 years ago in the Puyallup Valley.

About 5,000 years ago Mt. St. Helens erupted so massively that more than half the state of Washington was uninhabitable for over 1,000 years. If an eruption on that same scale took place today millions would perish. Then there's also Mt. Hood, Baker, Adams, Shasta, Lassen Peak, and a fairly long list of others active in our zone.

We know a lot about volcanoes, but not enough to accurately predict what they're going to do in the short term. It would not be easy to convince the entire Seattle or Portland Metro area to relocate. Just do what millions of others do, ignore it.
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