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O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: August 26, 2006 01:01PM
Keep in mind, there's usually a high degree of uncertainty to the projected path/position 5 days out (in this case, the 8 AM Thu point):


More information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov (National Hurricane Center).

Just to quote what I've seen at other reputable sources on the Internet (Central Florida Hurricane Center via www.skeetobiteweather.com):

Residents of the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast should pay particular attention to this storm over the weekend, particularly from Baton Rouge, LA east to Panama City, FL. If current trends continue, we should have a better handle of what to expect early next workweek. But by all means, don't panic! All residents along the entire Gulf coast and in the southeast US should keep an eye on this one too in case trends reverse over the weekend. Any potential impact to the US is likely still 5-6 days away.

The upper level environment surrounding the storm, while still somewhat hostile, is becoming increasingly favorable for development. The upper low that had been situated just to the west of the storm is starting to exit the picture quite rapidly. Conditions are projected to be favorable for significant intensification over the next five days, particularly after the next 24-48 hours, and the current NHC forecast is for a major hurricane in the northern Gulf in 5 days. Unfortunately, this is a quite reasonable forecast, and admittedly perhaps a tad conservative. Recon flights will be heading into Ernesto every 6hr from here on out, so we should start to get more information on its intensity soon.
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: August 26, 2006 04:43PM
Wow, forcast track is shifting to the right. Earlier today they had it making a beeline towards New Orleans.
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: samintx
Date: August 26, 2006 06:50PM
Well, NO will probably get so water they don't need. We are having such a drought here in East TX and other places beacoup H2O
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: August 26, 2006 08:34PM
I've heard. My dad and bro' live in Dallas. They've got lawn irrigation restrictions (but that is probably the least of their worries) as well as some kind of Level 2 (?) drought conditions.
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: karsen
Date: August 26, 2006 10:04PM
I'm in the cone of probability. No worries though, I have the plywood and chainsaws ready!
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: August 27, 2006 08:55AM
Well, the thing is tracking to the east farther than they thought it would (the few models that suggested this initially were not given very much reput).

Hurricanes are bad enough, but it appears that this one won't develop into a monster record setter due to extended land interaction with Cuba and limited over water exposure in the eastern Gulf (relative to a south central Gulf entrance).

It could've easily been otherwise, for as it turns out the atmospheric conditions became very ideal (couple this with very warm water which is a plenty).

Sucks that you folks in Florida are gonna have to deal with a hurricane, and that's not something to take lightly, but it shouldn't be anything worse than a Cat 2 or 3.

P. S. - It seems that in some of the back room discussions, there is apparantly a lot of concern that there's a good chance that (have I said "that" enough) Cuba may not impair the storm very much...there is a lot of concern FL might be looking at Cat 4...even a little concern the eastern shift in the track may not last long and that it may indeed spend more time in the Gulf...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/27/2006 09:12AM by Carnos Jax.
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Zoidberg
Date: August 27, 2006 10:51AM
I had gotten calls from relatives still back in N.O. throughout the day yesterday (Saturday) asking me for hotel phone numbers here in the Little Rock area; the news was reminding everyone that even if it stays a tropical storm but comes to N.O., you cannot ride it out in a FEMA box (aka emergency trailer) (aka your home for the past and next year).

The new track is good news for them but of course everything can change in a heartbeat. And I have always kept my eye on tracks and said prayers for whomever got hit on the coast by a storm. We all used to help each other out after each hit; folks from LA would help the MS coast, the guys from FL too, AL as well. We all helped each other. When Katrina hit *everyone* in that help network, we just couldn't help fast enough.



(BTW, it's spelled < y'all >.)
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: August 27, 2006 11:14AM
Zoid', being that you and I are both in Little Rock, we oughta do a 'pseudo' MR gathering over at the River Market some time (couple of good bars over there if you haven't checked it out yet).
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Re: O. T. - Update on Ernesto
Posted by: Grateful11
Date: August 27, 2006 01:48PM
I know it's been linked before but it is a good one also.

[skeetobiteweather.com]



Grateful11
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