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Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: RgrF
Date: February 14, 2020 09:31PM
Forget the prediction; the comments will make you weep for the future of our country.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: February 14, 2020 09:53PM
The name is COVID-19. What's really sad is 1,300 health care workers are infected, at least 6 dead so far. It looks like older people with a previous health condition are the most at risk of death.

According to genetic forensics, the first human case was in a few days of November 16.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: February 14, 2020 10:17PM
Several news sites are suggesting that it's peaking early. Might start a decline as early as the end of February in Wuhan and the rest of the world in mid-March.

New cases are being reported less often. (The recent peak was the result of a change in reporting methods, including people who had any sort of symptom resembling the virus even if they tested negative.)

And most cases are mild or asymptomatic.



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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: February 14, 2020 10:18PM
ref: [forums.macresource.com]
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: space-time
Date: February 14, 2020 10:46PM
Quote
Sarcany
Several news sites are suggesting that it's peaking early. Might start a decline as early as the end of February in Wuhan and the rest of the world in mid-March.

....

I am curious what makes a virus like this spread early and then slow down. we do not have a vaccine yet, we did not build immunity for it. Why does it slow down?
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Wags
Date: February 14, 2020 11:18PM
This article get's at it somewhat:

How fast the new virus may spread is also uncertain. Researchers are still calculating how many people on average a newly infected person might transmit the virus to — a number called R0. The World Health Organization estimates 2019-nCoV’s R0 is between 1.4 and 2.5, while a study posted January 27 on SSRN reports it could be as high as 6.5. A flurry of additional papers estimate the number to be between 1.4 and 3.8 (SN: 1/24/20).

R0 is a tricky number to pin down, as the varying estimates reflect. It can also change as control measures are put in place, suggesting that as more cases emerge, these estimates will probably continue to shift.


[www.sciencenews.org]

Lots of good info at this site.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: February 14, 2020 11:34PM
Quote
space-time
Quote
Sarcany
Several news sites are suggesting that it's peaking early. Might start a decline as early as the end of February in Wuhan and the rest of the world in mid-March.

....

I am curious what makes a virus like this spread early and then slow down. we do not have a vaccine yet, we did not build immunity for it. Why does it slow down?

I don't think there's an easy answer to that. There are too may variables to account for.

Isolating the ill may be working better than expected. Or maybe it's not a significant factor at all. Most of the experts making the news lately have been saying that it doesn't help.

Weather plays some part with some viruses (notably influenza strains in the Western world) doing better in cold/dry conditions, but some studies have shown influenza thriving in warm humid regions. Social events with lots of travel and large gatherings (Thanksgiving/Xmas/New Year) probably work into it. Nutrition and general health tend to wane in the winter on some continents, and as the weather warms and people get more exercise and vitamin D, immune systems may get boosted. Viruses of this sort tend to mutate pretty quickly and it's possible that subtle adaptations in the virus may work against transmission.

SARS came on quickly and then disappeared. It had almost a 10% fatality rate. I don't think that anyone knows with great certainty why it disappeared. A few more people wearing respirators didn't stop it. But it's gone. No cases since 2004. Maybe it burnt through hosts too quickly. Or maybe it mutated and died off. It's just gone.



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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Wags
Date: February 15, 2020 12:37AM
I think we should call the Mexican beer plague, MBP.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: February 15, 2020 12:49AM
Japan just had a case where they could not figure out how the person got infected (not yet at least).

1,300 doctors and nurses across China had the opportunity to spread it while they were asymptomatic. If they were only dealing with known infected patients at work it could be just their friends and families that get infected. China is still reporting deaths in almost exact proportion to known infections so it's very hard to trust them on numbers of any group.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: February 15, 2020 08:44AM
sorry, Gary Larson was there first-

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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: February 15, 2020 09:55AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Japan just had a case where they could not figure out how the person got infected (not yet at least).

The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind....



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: February 15, 2020 03:26PM
Quote
Sarcany
Several news sites are suggesting that it's peaking early. Might start a decline as early as the end of February in Wuhan and the rest of the world in mid-March.


No. No.

I have heard from an extremely stable and intelligent source that the heat will kill it in April.
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Re: Coronavirus Pandemic: 40% to 70% of World Could Be Infected This Year
Posted by: CJsNvrUrly
Date: February 15, 2020 04:16PM
Quote
Lux Interior
Quote
Sarcany
Several news sites are suggesting that it's peaking early. Might start a decline as early as the end of February in Wuhan and the rest of the world in mid-March.


No. No.

I have heard from an extremely stable and intelligent source that the heat will kill it in April.

smiley-laughing001Careful...lest this gets moved to "the other side"... LOL




bunny smileyCentral VA
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