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Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: lost in space
Date: March 13, 2020 07:24PM
Good move, but I'm afraid even six weeks won't be enough.

There are a lot of events postponed for two weeks. I don't see how two weeks--or even six--will make a difference. Seems like it postpones the inevitable. Are they just arbitrary shots in the dark? Any opinions?







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2020 07:25PM by lost in space.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: davemchine
Date: March 13, 2020 07:33PM
I just received my notice via email from my kids school. They will be ramping up the online learning tools next week. It's going to be interesting. Fortunately it does not create a scheduling problem for me.

I would like to think that the six week timeline is on the outside and perhaps if things improve they will shorten it. We will see.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: mattkime
Date: March 13, 2020 07:49PM
I think six weeks is a good starting point. I think its more likely to get longer than shorter.



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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: lost in space
Date: March 13, 2020 08:01PM
Quote
mattkime
I think six weeks is a good starting point. I think its more likely to get longer than shorter.

I think it will get longer too.

Is the closure to stall for time? Do those who make these decisions think things will be better when they reopen? There's no hope of a vaccination that soon. I think things are going to be a lot worse--at least here in the US--in six weeks.



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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Racer X
Date: March 13, 2020 08:03PM
So, how many of the inner city kids in Seattle and Tacoma have high speed internet and an appropriate platform at home? They are screwed.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 13, 2020 09:10PM
Quote
Racer X
So, how many of the inner city kids in Seattle and Tacoma have high speed internet and an appropriate platform at home? They are screwed.

There are also kids who rely on local libraries for access, that's gone for them now.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: space-time
Date: March 13, 2020 09:16PM
I think kids will go back to school in the fall.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: March 13, 2020 10:59PM
A lot of kids get breakfast and lunch at school. Some schools are setting up drive through that lets families pick up lunch and breakfast for the next morning.



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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: March 13, 2020 11:12PM
People are starting to realize that schools provide MUCH more than just an education. Food, internet, safety, etc. Maybe now schools will start getting the funding they need.



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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Racer X
Date: March 14, 2020 12:42AM
Interesting take Chris, we can only hope. Same for GOOD childcare.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: neophyte
Date: March 14, 2020 09:08AM
Quote
lost in space
Good move, but I'm afraid even six weeks won't be enough.

There are a lot of events postponed for two weeks. I don't see how two weeks--or even six--will make a difference. Seems like it postpones the inevitable. Are they just arbitrary shots in the dark? Any opinions?

I think it is meant to slow the spread of the virus, especially to allow healthcare facilities to cope with the influx of patients.

Studies of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic showed death rates in St. Louis, which closed large venues, versus Philadelphia, which did not initially do so:

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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: davemchine
Date: March 14, 2020 01:38PM
neophyte, do you have a link for where you found that graph. Super interesting.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 14, 2020 02:42PM
The 1918 epidemic landed right in the midst of war mobilization that saw hundreds of thousands of recruits packed shoulder to shoulder on trans-Atlantic troop carriers with little or no medical resources.

WW I afforded that flu a world wide petri dish for incubation.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: neophyte
Date: March 14, 2020 03:34PM
Quote
davemchine
neophyte, do you have a link for where you found that graph. Super interesting.

I'm at work now; I posted it from home. The graph was originally published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). A reproduced graph and explanation is here.

It may be the basis for the current "flattening curves" that are making the rounds, for example here.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Racer X
Date: March 14, 2020 04:30PM
Quote
RgrF
Quote
Racer X
So, how many of the inner city kids in Seattle and Tacoma have high speed internet and an appropriate platform at home? They are screwed.

There are also kids who rely on local libraries for access, that's gone for them now.

Seattle Public Libraries closed at 6pm the 13th. Tacoma and likely others as well.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Rolando
Date: March 14, 2020 07:03PM
Quote
lost in space
Good move, but I'm afraid even six weeks won't be enough.

There are a lot of events postponed for two weeks. I don't see how two weeks--or even six--will make a difference. Seems like it postpones the inevitable. Are they just arbitrary shots in the dark? Any opinions?

Pretty sure they are shots in the dark, buying time.

Quote
neophyte
I think it is meant to slow the spread of the virus, especially to allow healthcare facilities to cope with the influx of patients.

Studies of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic showed death rates in St. Louis, which closed large venues, versus Philadelphia, which did not initially do so:


The Spanish Flu is a great template for avoiding previous mistakes.Will anyone follow?

Quote
RgrF
The 1918 epidemic landed right in the midst of war mobilization that saw hundreds of thousands of recruits packed shoulder to shoulder on trans-Atlantic troop carriers with little or no medical resources.

WW I afforded that flu a world wide petri dish for incubation.

The world is MUCH more mobile and urbanized than it was a century ago.



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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: Janit
Date: March 14, 2020 07:06PM
Quote
lost in space
Good move, but I'm afraid even six weeks won't be enough.

There are a lot of events postponed for two weeks. I don't see how two weeks--or even six--will make a difference. Seems like it postpones the inevitable. Are they just arbitrary shots in the dark? Any opinions?

Presumably these closings will be extended if it seems advisable.

Given the properties of this virus, it seems likely that COVID-19 will eventually become endemic and that a large number of people will eventually catch it. Nevertheless such closings do more than just "postponing the inevitable."

Spreading the infections out over an extended period is a way to keep the "critical" cases low enough at any given time that the hospital capacity we have can actually cope with them. It reduces the ultimate death rate. It may be that most of us will eventually catch this virus, but how and when makes a big difference.

It is particularly important to postpone infections of vulnerable segments of the population as long as possible. The danger to vulnerable populations may even decrease with time as a result of a variety of factors: development of a vaccine, development of treatments, development of some degree of herd immunity in the general population, attenuation of the more lethal properties of the virus as it passes through the population.

The above developments are not guaranteed, but they have been observed/obtained for other diseases, and postponing infection of vulnerable populations is a good thing in and of itself.
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Re: Washington K-12 schools closed for SIX weeks
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 14, 2020 07:47PM
Quote
Rolando
The world is MUCH more mobile and urbanized than it was a century ago.

It's also much more advanced medically and able to respond more quickly. The 1918 pandemic killed somewhere between 30 to 100 million mainly young adults. This current pandemic seems to be skipping kids and young adults primarily targeting the elderly.

So comparisons are more informative than useful. The aftermath of 1918 was almost like a worldwide amnesia; it was buried and forgotten, not widely known to later generations.
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