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Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Gutenberg
Date: March 06, 2012 01:20PM
It shows that none of the four Republican candidates has stronger positives than negatives, and that the negative perception of each of the candidates has grown since campaigns started in earnest back in Dec. Not good news for the GOPs.

[www.washingtonpost.com]
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: beagledave
Date: March 06, 2012 01:35PM
Interesting.

I'd like to compare that to say the 2008 Democratic primaries and see what the favorables/unfavorables were at this point in the cycle. The perception (and my instinct agrees with it) seems to be that this has been more corrosive for the GOP than 2008 was for the Dems. I wonder if that historical data backs that up.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: hal
Date: March 06, 2012 01:45PM
As Mark Shields pointed out on PBS newshour last week - this process has damaged all repub candidates. They ALL look worse as the process rolls on, but in 2008, Obama and Clinton sharpened each other as the process rolled on making them both better candidates.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2012 01:45PM by hal.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Gutenberg
Date: March 06, 2012 01:47PM
A quick look at this supports your view. Caveat: It's Wikipedia. Still, the charts are well attributed.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Ted King
Date: March 06, 2012 01:51PM
A little more of a summary of the data for those whose eyes tend to gloss over when looking at tables of data:

[abcnews.go.com]

Quote

Mitt Romney’s rebounded among strong conservatives since his wins in the Michigan and Arizona primaries, potentially bolstering his prospects in the race for the Republican nomination. But he and his GOP opponents face continued challenges in popularity more broadly.

All four Republican contenders remain underwater in overall favorability in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, marking the difficulties the survivor may face against Barack Obama. More Americans hold negative than positive views of Romney by a 10-point margin, Rick Santorum by 8 points, Ron Paul by 9 points and Newt Gingrich by a whopping 33 points.

Among customarily swing-voting independents, moreover, all but Paul is seen more unfavorably than favorably in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. And Paul’s got trouble, as does Gingrich, within the GOP itself.

Overall ratings are little changed from previous measurements. Notably, though, Romney has improved among both “very” and “somewhat” conservative Americans, as well as among conservative Republicans in particular – up by 12, 10 and 11 points in these groups, respectively, versus a week ago. His gain among very conservatives comes from the ranks of the undecided in this group; among somewhat conservatives, by contrast, negative views moved to positive ones.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: beagledave
Date: March 06, 2012 01:53PM
Quote
Gutenberg
A quick look at this supports your view. Caveat: It's Wikipedia. Still, the charts are well attributed.

Yeah but that is a preference poll, not a popularity poll.

I could favor Romney over Santorum, but still not have a high favorable for him. That seems to be the GOP's problem.

I don't think that this was as much of an issue back in March 2008...but I'd like to see comparative data.

Here we go.

McCain: 67% favorable
Hillary Clinton: 53% favorable
Obama: 62% favorable



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2012 01:55PM by beagledave.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Gutenberg
Date: March 06, 2012 02:01PM
I would like to see numbers taken at several dates across the primary process to see where the worm turned against McCain. I'm guessing it was after the convention as people began to get horrified over Palin's potential seat one heartbeat away from the Presidency.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: March 06, 2012 02:13PM
The Republicans are all running against each other, and are trying to one-up each other on who can pander to which special audience. They're coming across like monkeys at a buffet. They keep trying to 'run' against Obama, but since Obama isn't running against them individually, it's not working.

Thus the strength of the incumbent.

It's a lot like the Democratic ticket in 2004.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Gutenberg
Date: March 06, 2012 02:29PM
The point is that the Democrats ran against each other in 2008 without crippling the winner. The Republicans seem hell-bent on getting the nomination at any price, including a loss in the general.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: $tevie
Date: March 06, 2012 03:03PM
Quote
Gutenberg
The point is that the Democrats ran against each other in 2008 without crippling the winner. The Republicans seem hell-bent on getting the nomination at any price, including a loss in the general.
agree smiley



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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: March 06, 2012 04:14PM
It's not all that complicated. In 2008 the Democrats were running against each other but in the context of centrist politics. In other words, they treated the Democrats and the debates as representative of the country as a whole, or at least as representative of the majority of the country. For the most part they stayed in the centrist area of foreign policy, and they promised to protect popular programs like social security.

This year, the Republicans find themselves in a very uncomfortable place, because they are fighting over the votes of a highly conservative minority. In so doing, they antagonize anyone else who happens to be looking. They take radical positions on foreign policy, they talk about downsizing popular programs, and they adopt a political style that is irritating to the majority.

I think that Romney is keeping his fingers crossed that he can gain a knockout today, or at most within a few weeks, and then he can try to move towards the center. I don't think this will work all that well, but short of a worsening of the recession, I don't see a winning strategy for him. He has made too many outrageous statements during the debates, and these will be brought back in television ads in the fall.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: hal
Date: March 06, 2012 04:30PM
Quote
Ca Bob
I think that Romney is keeping his fingers crossed that he can gain a knockout today, or at most within a few weeks, and then he can try to move towards the center. I don't think this will work all that well, but short of a worsening of the recession, I don't see a winning strategy for him. He has made too many outrageous statements during the debates, and these will be brought back in television ads in the fall.

I agree - Romney's last real chance is a BIG day today follow by immediate consolidation of the right. If Santorum is hanging on next week, it'll be the end of their chances I suspect...
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: J Marston
Date: March 06, 2012 11:40PM
I don't actually think the candidates are worried much about what they'll look like when the primary ordeal is over, because I don't believe that any one of them is thinking of a general election campaign based on his own merits. The Republican nominee will try to make the November election about Obama: since about 40% cannot reconcile themselves to Obama, the Republican candidate only needs to convince 10% of voters that Obama is an obstacle to better polices. That voter doesn't have to believe much at all about the Republican candidate.

Obama, of course, will try to make this about the Republican candidate, or at least a contest between two candidates with different visions for the future--that would be a difficult election for any Republican after all the flubs and missteps of such a protracted primary campaign.

So the Republicans can say foolish things about contraception and NASCAR team owners and infidelities as the result of excess patriotism in the expectation that it won't matter in November. All that matters is winning the nomination.
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Re: Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 07, 2012 05:17AM
I suspect all the data goes south once you factor in the "I hate Obama at all costs vote". This is a solid 40% of the electorate. Allows Romney to key on that other 10%.

With his access to resources, it's now probable he'll buy his way into the White House.

PS: Oops seems I just reiterated JM's post prior to reading the same, but what the hell brilliant minds think alike.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/07/2012 05:21AM by RgrF.
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