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Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: rgG
Date: June 27, 2012 09:50PM
My husband thinks they will throw out the mandate with something like a 7-2 ruling. He thinks they will leave most of the rest of the bill intact.

I really don't have a clue what they will do.

Anyone else care to speculate, before they announce in the morning?




Alpharetta, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: June 27, 2012 10:20PM
5-4
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Kiva
Date: June 27, 2012 11:16PM
5-4 throw out mandate only...which blows...


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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: AllGold
Date: June 28, 2012 12:20AM
If only the mandate is struck down and the rest remains then the whole law will end up being reworked--or completely dismantled--by the legislative and executive branches.

Guaranteed issue without the mandate is unsustainable.

The mandate is the only part that attempts to control costs. (And I personally think the law did not do nearly enough as it is to address costs.)


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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: June 28, 2012 05:56AM
Mandate is gone: 6-3

Then nothing happens until after the election. If Obama is reelected the battle starts again; if Romney wins then the dismantling starts.


You can tell a lot about a woman by her hands...
- For example, if they are wrapped around your throat she's probably slightly upset.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Gutenberg
Date: June 28, 2012 06:34AM
5-4, party vote.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Spock
Date: June 28, 2012 06:46AM
I predict that both sides will claim a victory no matter what SCOTUS rules.





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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: June 28, 2012 07:32AM
All I know is that our healthcare cost will go Up. Regardless of the ruling.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: lafinfil
Date: June 28, 2012 07:44AM
I'll be the outlier and say that they will rule that the mandate is a tax so they can not judge it yet because
it has not been implemented (aka a punt) I don't really believe it, but it would be an interesting twist.


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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: rgG
Date: June 28, 2012 08:00AM
Quote
AllGold
If only the mandate is struck down and the rest remains then the whole law will end up being reworked--or completely dismantled--by the legislative and executive branches.

Guaranteed issue without the mandate is unsustainable.

The mandate is the only part that attempts to control costs. (And I personally think the law did not do nearly enough as it is to address costs.)

agree smiley




Alpharetta, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Avenger
Date: June 28, 2012 08:09AM
Quote
cbelt3
All I know is that our healthcare cost will go has gone up. Regardless of the ruling.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: michaelb
Date: June 28, 2012 08:33AM
If they strike it down it will be remembered for a 100 years as the worst decision since Korematsu. It will throw the structure of our government into chaos (as if we aren't there enough). So while I am not guessing, I am hoping that Roberts and Kennedy understand all of that and want to avoid it. So some complicated and nuanced 6-3 split that allows the law to stand in some fashion.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Ted King
Date: June 28, 2012 08:44AM
I have no idea, but my weak guess is that the mandate will be tossed on a 5-4 vote. I wouldn't be shocked if it goes 6-3 to uphold the whole law (pleasantly surprised, though).
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: swampy
Date: June 28, 2012 09:36AM
Good call lafinfil.




If you don't stand for something, you'll probably fall for anything.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: June 28, 2012 09:45AM
'fil for the Win !

So we'll see this material again in 2014.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: michaelb
Date: June 28, 2012 09:49AM
Quote
cbelt3
'fil for the Win !

So we'll see this material again in 2014.

Not to take this personally, but lafinfil was not right, since they did rule on the tax provision. I called 6-3, so I was wrong on Kennedy, but otherwise this was a complicated and nuanced split upholding the law.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: davester
Date: June 28, 2012 09:52AM
I really don't have a good feeling for which way it'll go, but I predict that Thomas will as usual vote for the parties who are paying him (or his wife) off this week.



"So be proud to be a decent American instead of just a w'anker whipping up fear!" - Michael D. Higgins, President of Ireland
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: $tevie
Date: June 28, 2012 10:38AM
I predict that they will uphold the entire law. grinning smiley


"Stop thinking about art works as objects, and start thinking about them as triggers for experiences." ~ Brian Eno
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: June 28, 2012 03:44PM
I predict that it will be a 5-4 decision with a surprise entry from the conservative side, and that they will uphold all the major provisions but toss out one provision that is a lot less important. I also predict that this all will happen 6 hours ago.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: Black
Date: June 29, 2012 02:09AM
Quote
Ca Bob
I predict that it will be a 5-4 decision with a surprise entry from the conservative side, and that they will uphold all the major provisions but toss out one provision that is a lot less important. I also predict that this all will happen 6 hours ago.

You are a smart man.


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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: RgrF
Date: June 29, 2012 05:01AM
Laurence Tribe (remember him) actually called the decision specifics on a TV program a day or two before the announcement. His reasoning was that Roberts would be more concerned with his place in Court history than his standing with the right.

He (Tribe) further reasoned that another split on political lines might cause Roberts, as Chief, to go down in history as a reincarnation of Roger Taney. If Tribe is correct, Roberts twisted his normal bent to find a way to vote for Roberts. Bringing it to a higher level he voted to save the Court from public disrepute and scorn.

For either of the above reasons that vote would be a vote against personal standards and conscience and one for personal long term gain and/or political reality.

Don't leave this with any sort of warm and fuzzy thoughts about our Chief Justice or the highly political nature of the current day majority.

They'll be the same makeup come September and Roberts will have some fence mending to do, at our expense.
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: davester
Date: June 29, 2012 02:00PM
Quote
RgrF
They'll be the same makeup come September and Roberts will have some fence mending to do, at our expense.

Perhaps, but you've got no basis for making that statement. History is rife with examples of supreme court justices who left behind their party alignments after a few years on the court, after it had sunk in that they didn't have to answer to anybody.



"So be proud to be a decent American instead of just a w'anker whipping up fear!" - Michael D. Higgins, President of Ireland
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Re: Post your predictions for the SCOTUS Obamacare ruling tomorrow
Posted by: RgrF
Date: June 29, 2012 09:08PM
Quote
davester
Quote
RgrF
They'll be the same makeup come September and Roberts will have some fence mending to do, at our expense.

Perhaps, but you've got no basis for making that statement. History is rife with examples of supreme court justices who left behind their party alignments after a few years on the court, after it had sunk in that they didn't have to answer to anybody.

Only his judicial history. It'd be nice to think he might become another Earl Warren but that's simply not going to happen. Warren was a politician, Gov of California, before Ike picked him for the court. A choice he later described as one of the biggest mistakes he'd ever made.
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