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Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: $tevie
Date: October 31, 2012 06:31PM
Now they are polling people not only about whom they will vote for, but who they think will win.
[www.slate.com]

POLL OVERKILL!!!



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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: davester
Date: October 31, 2012 06:39PM
They need to poll people about what they think the next poll result will be.



"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: October 31, 2012 06:48PM
Quote
davester
They need to poll people about what they think the next poll result will be.

thumbs up
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: lafinfil
Date: October 31, 2012 06:57PM
Sounds like we need some poll locks

<ducks>



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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: beagledave
Date: October 31, 2012 06:57PM
I'll disagree.

Asking people who they think will win IS a relevant factor in voting trends. Certainly in recent times, who people "think" will win the presidency has turned out to be true. AND, as others have pointed out, people like to vote for "winners".

Even right leaning RCP now has the popular vote at a tie, with Obama ahead in electoral votes for the first time in awhile at RCP.

Intrade has Obama at 68%

THAT'S why there has been such a strong backlash against Nate's model. (Obama currently at 77.4%)

It's why Drudge keeps spewing nonsense like outlier polls suggesting that Romney will win a landslide. (His current tease is "SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN... DEVELOPING...)

It's why Dick Morris has to do a lot of hand waving.

Do I think Obama is a shoo-in? Nope. But I do think that the path for Romney to 270 is quite narrow. It's why he didn't dare take a day or 2 off the campaign trail after Sandy. I think that there is a growing perception that Obama will win. And Romney has to fight that tooth and nail.

It "may" be too late.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: October 31, 2012 08:00PM
RCP has 11 states in toss-up category right now, which is really unusual for this close to the election. They haven't changed their no toss-up scenario, which has Obama winning with 290 EV's.

And Gallup issued a post yesterday that might explain why their polls are differing so much from others - they are expecting low turnout this year, lower than '04 or '08, they think it might even look like 2000, which had unusually low turnout. That helps Republicans.

So I think the more important question is not who do you think will win, but rather are you motivated to vote this year, are you going to do it?
It's about turnout levels and not much else at this point.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: October 31, 2012 08:06PM
Quote
$tevie
Now they are polling people not only about whom they will vote for, but who they think will win.
[www.slate.com]

POLL OVERKILL!!!

37% of those questioned agreed with this position, 29% disagreed, and 11% had no opinion. The 3 numbers are all within the margin of error, with a sample size of 4 unlikely voters.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: October 31, 2012 08:30PM
If we institute a mandatory recursive polling of pollsters, will they all end up in rubber rooms asking themselves increasingly inane questions ?big grin smiley
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Bread Crumbs
Date: October 31, 2012 09:52PM
$tevie,

You just gotta get used to the idea that your guy is done.

Welcome to four years of the Rominator.

This is gonna be a landslide like Reagan over Carter 1980.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: $tevie
Date: October 31, 2012 10:02PM
Yeah, sure, that's why I'm complaining about a poll that says Obama is going to win.



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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Acer
Date: October 31, 2012 10:06PM
Quote
Bread Crumbs
$tevie,

You just gotta get used to the idea that your guy is done.

Welcome to four years of the Rominator.

This is gonna be a landslide like Reagan over Carter 1980.

Thank you for that analysis, Karl Rove.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Black
Date: October 31, 2012 10:06PM
Quote
$tevie
Yeah, sure, that's why I'm complaining about a poll that says Obama is going to win.

You can't argue with bread crumbs.




New forum user map 8/2015: [www.zeemaps.com]
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: wave rider
Date: November 01, 2012 12:01AM
Quote
Black
Quote
$tevie
Yeah, sure, that's why I'm complaining about a poll that says Obama is going to win.

You can't argue with bread crumbs.

Nothing a middling Dust Busterâ„¢ can't handle...

=wr=
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: RoadToad
Date: November 01, 2012 12:19AM
64.7% of all statistics are just made up.




Badger, Badger, Badger, Badger, Badger...
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: November 01, 2012 09:00AM
"If you break a crumb in half, you don't have two half-crumbs. You got two crumbs, man!"
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 01, 2012 02:44PM
I did hear that on Faux Benghazi News. Dick Morris and Karl Rove proclaim it.

Quote
Bread Crumbs
$tevie,

You just gotta get used to the idea that your guy is done.

Welcome to four years of the Rominator.

This is gonna be a landslide like Reagan over Carter 1980.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: hal
Date: November 01, 2012 03:05PM
Quote
Speedy
I did hear that on Faux Benghazi News. Dick Morris and Karl Rove proclaim it.

Yeah, I read those two. I think Morris is truly delusional and didn't even present a case for the view. Rove is just pretending to be dumb and just rattles off all of the BS points. That man is EVIL!
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Re: Okay, that's it, I'm done with polls
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 01, 2012 03:44PM
Rove truly believes that most of the citizens of this country are idiots who can be led by the nose, and who can blame him really? So he will go around proclaiming victory for Romney with the idea that the dimwits will go "vote for the winner". I hope it backfires and the dimwits all stay home on Tuesday. judge smiley



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