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Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 08:50AM
[twitter.com]

"The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful."

Election races generally tighten SOME, but this is all on HRC and her management team. I don't see a David Axelrod or James Carville allowing the mistakes that this campaign has made to continue to snowball.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: mspace
Date: September 26, 2016 09:01AM
Interesting perspective . . .

[politicalwire.com]
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: billb
Date: September 26, 2016 09:01AM
Off to the races




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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: September 26, 2016 10:22AM
Quote
mspace
Interesting perspective . . .

[politicalwire.com]

"Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.”

I think Plouffe has it right. hillary is winning the states she needs to win. she doesn't have to win them all.

tightening of the polls was inevitable, because Republicans finally have to come around and say who they are going to vote for, and when push comes to shove, most people stay loyal to their party. it's all about turnout at this point.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 11:27AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
mspace
Interesting perspective . . .

[politicalwire.com]

"Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.”

I think Plouffe has it right. hillary is winning the states she needs to win. she doesn't have to win them all.

tightening of the polls was inevitable, because Republicans finally have to come around and say who they are going to vote for, and when push comes to shove, most people stay loyal to their party. it's all about turnout at this point.

I think that this is beyond a standard tightening.

It is indeed all about turnout. Whose voters are most enthused about turning out, HRC or Trump?

I'm not saying that I feel that if the election were held right now, Trump would win. I AM saying that Team HRC is not reversing the trendlines.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2016 11:35AM by beagledave.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: pdq
Date: September 26, 2016 03:12PM
Quote
beagledave
Election races generally tighten SOME, but this is all on HRC and her management team. I don't see a David Axelrod or James Carville allowing the mistakes that this campaign has made to continue to snowball.

Okay, as an HRC supporter, I've got to ask (genuinely) what mistakes? Getting pneumonia? Using the word "deplorable"? I think the email stuff was not perfectly handled, but that was largely before the Clinton vs Trump campaign, and honestly, I think took them off guard because it's so much fuss over something so inconsequential (and similar to past practice for SoSes).

Should she have attacked Trump more? Or less? The convention appeared to come off pretty well, and she got a much bigger (and longer-lasting) convention bounce than Trump. Is she targeting the wrong states? By all accounts, Trump has.

My point is not to whine about how unfair it all is - I actually feel pretty much at ease at this point with how they've done. She's not an immediately likable personality, and maybe she will lose on that point. But if she loses, it's not going to be because of "mistakes", like some technical campaign issue, nor lies or "scandals", since the other side has waaay more of both of those.

It'll be because people just plain don't like her. I'd like to think the American electorate could get past that for the sake of the country...but that may not be the case.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 05:50PM
Quote
pdq

It'll be because people just plain don't like her. I'd like to think the American electorate could get past that for the sake of the country...but that may not be the case.

If she loses, it will be because not enough of the "I don't really like HRC a lot, but I hate Trump worse" voters bother to vote. They won't vote for Trump, they'll just stay home. Trump voters will turn out.

#turnout



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2016 05:50PM by beagledave.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 06:06PM
To answer your question, pdq (what mistakes)..yes the deplorables thing was dumb (why else would she apologize (well sort of) if it wasn't. The very slow response from Team HRC about what was ailing her (when they knew earlier that she DID have pneumonia). The dumb posturing.."we have a bazillion paths to victory, 269 EVs are a "lock".

Can I flip the question? If Team HRC DIDN'T make mistakes, then why did she go from a double digit lead post convention to a dead heat? Did Trump suddenly become more likable?
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: pdq
Date: September 26, 2016 06:29PM
Honestly, I think when people actually see Clinton and hear her talk, they realize she's not the monster some folks make her out to be.

Can you honestly say you've seen or heard much from her since the convention? I haven't. That's just not news, and there's been zero adverts in my state.

People are expecting Trump to win just by showing up and not doing anything dumb. I'm betting that it's Clinton that gets the bump just for showing up.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 06:32PM
Quote
pdq

People are expecting Trump to win just by showing up and not doing anything dumb. I'm betting that it's Clinton that gets the bump just for showing up.

You might be right about that.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: $tevie
Date: September 26, 2016 07:06PM
Quote
beagledave
The dumb posturing.."we have a bazillion paths to victory, 269 EVs are a "lock".
What are you referring to, exactly? Your link doesn't explain it. I don't remember the Clinton campaign saying it was a lock. In fact, their never-ending emails to me since the convention ended have been about how it was anything BUT a lock. Please give us more money.

Quote
beagledave
Can I flip the question? If Team HRC DIDN'T make mistakes, then why did she go from a double digit lead post convention to a dead heat? Did Trump suddenly become more likable?
Do you honestly think that the three "mistakes" you listed overwhelm Trump's endless wrong moves? Or is it that the media thought that spending three days on pneumonia was appropriate, while spending three hours on President Barack Obama is the "founder of ISIS" was too excessive so why bother?



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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 07:27PM
Quote
$tevie
Quote
beagledave
The dumb posturing.."we have a bazillion paths to victory, 269 EVs are a "lock".
What are you referring to, exactly? Your link doesn't explain it. I don't remember the Clinton campaign saying it was a lock. In fact, their never-ending emails to me since the convention ended have been about how it was anything BUT a lock. Please give us more money.

Quote
beagledave
Can I flip the question? If Team HRC DIDN'T make mistakes, then why did she go from a double digit lead post convention to a dead heat? Did Trump suddenly become more likable?
Do you honestly think that the three "mistakes" you listed overwhelm Trump's endless wrong moves? Or is it that the media thought that spending three days on pneumonia was appropriate, while spending three hours on President Barack Obama is the "founder of ISIS" was too excessive so why bother?

1) This

“She is sitting at 269 electoral votes guaranteed right now,” said David Plouffe, the architect of Barack Obama’s two victories and an outside adviser to Clinton’s campaign, including the battleground state of Pennsylvania in his count. “I would argue she is sitting at 347 but for argument’s sake we can suspend reality for a moment.”

Oh yeah..he's the same dude up thread saying "Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.” That David Plouffe.

Of course he's not the only one in the article crowing about multiple paths to victory.

2) Do I think that HRC's mistakes overwhelm "Trump's endless wrong moves"?

Not sure how to answer that. Do I think that Trump has made more "mistakes", "gaffes" and "lies"? Absolutely.

Do I think it matters in terms of Electoral Votes? See my link to the current 538 forecast upthread.

Do I think that it SHOULD matter more? Yup. But I'm more interested in HRC being president than complaining about media coverage or complaining about Trump getting a pass on things. And not having discipline and good campaign decision making is the kind of thing that can make it more likely (however small...but there's not much room for that) for HRC to lose.

I think that she did a pretty reasonable job in the primaries against Sanders (and more importantly, preventing OTHER Dem candidates from running). The Dem convention was demonstrably better than the Reps convention. Then to have this stuff in September..it's reflected in the polling IMHO.

That article came out at the start of September. Is there ANYONE right now who can credibly say, even before October, that HRC "should prepare for a landslide?"



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2016 07:29PM by beagledave.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 26, 2016 07:32PM
Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: $tevie
Date: September 26, 2016 11:34PM
You can't count something David Plouffe said as a mistake by Clinton. So that's only two mistakes. And trust me, the pneumonia thing is going to go away because it was only propelled by the persistent illness rumors which will die when Clinton doesn't die, it will all be a joke by mid-October.

I stick with my prediction of Clinton: 369 / Neon-Tinted Hellion: 169



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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: Sam3
Date: September 27, 2016 04:02AM
This election is Mrs. Clinton's to lose, and it seems that her campaign is doing everything to make that to happen. I have not seen any Clinton signs or bumper stickers where I live, and yes, it is a conservative area, but usually there will be at least a few signs for the Democratic nominee. I'm seeing more and more Trump signs, and I still see Bernie bumper stickers. But not one Hillary.

The media still doesn't seem to have learned from Trump pulling the wool over their eyes with the not-a-birther press conference turned into a Trump Properties promo, this morning on ABC I saw a story regarding both candidates lying during the debate, with a horrible picture of Mrs. Clinton.

The marketing of candidate Clinton just isn't there.
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Re: Baskets of Panic
Posted by: beagledave
Date: September 27, 2016 07:20AM
Quote
$tevie
You can't count something David Plouffe said as a mistake by Clinton.

I did mention that in my initial post.

..."and her management team"

That's what campaign discipline is about. Controlling the message from the candidate AND her advisers. .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/27/2016 07:46AM by beagledave.
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