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GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 18, 2017 08:00PM
First big test to see what Dems are made of ... in a district that's gone Republican every time since 1978.

Everyone is running against each other. If anyone gets 50%, they get Tom Price's seat. If not, the two leaders face a runoff election in June.

This the "Jon Ossoff" one that the nation is watching. He's 30 and a neophyte. And with 3% of votes counted, he's well above 50% so far, but isn't expected to win it tonight.

[politics.blog.ajc.com]
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 18, 2017 08:30PM
I think he could have won had he resided in the district rather than promising to move into the district only if he wins. My state does not require a representative to live in the district that elects them to the House and apparently the same is true of Georgia.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 18, 2017 09:02PM
I don't see how that's an issue. You win, you move there, it's done. You get to work. It's not as if anyone really cares if he did or didn't grow up there.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 18, 2017 09:09PM
This is Newt Gingrich's old district.

It looks, unfortunately, like he'll end up around 48%. But that may be close enough to win the runoff.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 18, 2017 09:09PM
Looks like a runoff, as expected. That gives Republicans plenty of time to knock Ossoff down with more attacks. Handel didn't necessarily shine as Sec. Of State, couldn't muster enough to become Gov, so perhaps Congress will be her landing zone.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: lost in space
Date: April 18, 2017 09:12PM
As of 7 minutes ago, he's at 50.4%.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/18/2017 09:12PM by lost in space.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 18, 2017 09:12PM
Quote
pdq
This is Newt Gingrich's old district.

It looks, unfortunately, like he'll end up around 48%. But that may be close enough to win the runoff.

I'm quietly optimistic and openly pessimistic. I just hope he does reach upper 40s or momentum may dwindle in 2 months. But there's no better upset available than to take Gingrich and Price's turf away.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 18, 2017 09:14PM
Quote
lost in space
As of 7 minutes ago, he's at 50.4%.

Yes but only half the precincts are reporting, and the rest skew red(der) most likely. He "started" in the 70s.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 18, 2017 09:15PM
Quote
deckeda
I don't see how that's an issue. You win, you move there, it's done. You get to work. It's not as if anyone really cares if he did or didn't grow up there.

The representative prior to our current representative was redistricted out of our district for the 2012 election and it was an issue. Of course, former Rep. Michele Bachmann had other issues.

In 2006 she won her seat:
50% to 42%

In 2008:
46 - 43

In 2010:
52 - 40

In 2012:
4,298 more votes or about 1%

She did not run in 2014. [en.wikipedia.org]



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 18, 2017 09:36PM
Fox News appears to be sandbagging against an unfavorable result:

Quote

Key electronic voter logs used in the Georgia special election to fill a vacant Congressional seat were swiped from the pickup truck of a poll worker during a grocery run, according to a police report obtained by Fox News.

The theft of early voting check-in books has raised the specter of fraud in the hotly contested race to fill the state's sixth district seat left open when Tom Price was named Health and Human Services secretary.

As of yet, this appears to be the only report...which first appeared 8 hours ago.

Odd that.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 18, 2017 09:51PM
I have a feeling CNN.com might be the best pace to monitor this.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 18, 2017 09:57PM
Quote
Dennis S
I have a feeling CNN.com might be the best pace to monitor this.

CNN says:

Quote

As of 10:40 p.m. ET, Ossoff had 50.3% of the vote, with 77% of the vote in, according to Edison Research.

...but the NYT live update says only 54% of the vote is in.

dunno smiley
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 18, 2017 10:37PM
It's almost 11:40 EST and CNN hasn't updated from 10:40. I think I've figured the time zones right.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 18, 2017 11:02PM
NYT has him at 48.6 at midnight EST.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Sam3
Date: April 19, 2017 03:54AM
Ossoff vs Handel, Ossoff got 48.1% of the vote. [www.nytimes.com]
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: April 19, 2017 03:57AM
From Atlanta Journal Constitution

U.S. HOUSE - DISTRICT 6
Jon Ossoff (D)92,390 48.1%
Karen Handel (R)37,993 19.8%
Bob Gray (R)20,755 10.8%
Dan Moody (R)16,994 8.8%
Judson Hill (R)16,848 8.8%
others 7,104 3.7%

100% Precincts Reporting



"The only true wisdom is knowing you know nothing" -- Socrates
“I’m, like, a really smart person.” -- Donald Trump
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 19, 2017 06:44AM
All the ballots for the Democrats combined were 49%, not enough to win in June. This was Ossoff's best shot.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 19, 2017 07:21AM
Quote
Speedy
All the ballots for the Democrats combined were 49%, not enough to win in June. This was Ossoff's best shot.

And that's the reality. GA06 is nearly all "leafy suburbs" --- filled not so much with crazy, illiterate, rabid troglodytes that liberals love to hate, but normal conservatives who will reliably vote Republican, no matter who the President is. They "got theirs" and wanna keep it. Case closed. "Politics" doesn't matter to them.

I have good friends in GA06 who fit that description. I understand it, and them. I also understand that it's these folks who delivered Trump to the White House, not poor, rural America.

2018 will be interesting. I'm not aware of any swing districts having elections until then.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/19/2017 07:23AM by deckeda.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: billb
Date: April 19, 2017 10:02AM
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.



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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: April 19, 2017 10:04AM
Quote
deckeda
Quote
Speedy
All the ballots for the Democrats combined were 49%, not enough to win in June. This was Ossoff's best shot.

And that's the reality. GA06 is nearly all "leafy suburbs" --- filled not so much with crazy, illiterate, rabid troglodytes that liberals love to hate, but normal conservatives who will reliably vote Republican, no matter who the President is. They "got theirs" and wanna keep it. Case closed. "Politics" doesn't matter to them.

I have good friends in GA06 who fit that description. I understand it, and them. I also understand that it's these folks who delivered Trump to the White House, not poor, rural America.

2018 will be interesting. I'm not aware of any swing districts having elections until then.

Your description of the GA06 is incomplete.
GA06 has a high percentage of well-educated immigrants (who tend to vote Dem) and other progressive minded people. The district went 46% for Hillary in November with almost no campaign effort on her part, so moving up on that is a good sign for Dems.

I personnally cannot stand Karen Handel, she's the person who messed up Komen with her wacky social conservatism. I'll be fighting to defeat her and elect Joe Osoff in June and so should everyone, even though it's a long shot.

I think people should avoid reading too much into these special elections, which have never been bellwethers for either party or for midterms. If Osoff loses in June it doesn't mean Dems didn't support him on a national level (they have and will) and if he wins it doesn't mean big trouble for the GOP. It's only one local race.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: April 19, 2017 11:29AM
This will also depend on the turnout. In this case the Dems are motivated and may turn out better. Add that the Republicans will need all the votes that were cast for all the GOP candidates combined. Voters who did not support Handel the first time, may not be highly motivated to vote the second time.



"The only true wisdom is knowing you know nothing" -- Socrates
“I’m, like, a really smart person.” -- Donald Trump
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 19, 2017 01:01PM
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.



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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 19, 2017 02:29PM
Quote
billb
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.

Spending was approximately equal on both the Dem and Republican side:

Quote

The Ossoff campaign reported a record amount of fundraising in the race. His $8.3 million in fundraising and $2.1 million on hand [at the end].

Hill had the second-most amount of funds raised, reporting $473,000 with $113,000 on hand.

Handel was third in fundraising with $463,000 being raised as of the April 6 reporting date. She reported over $183,000 on hand heading into the last days of campaigning.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund has provided $2.1 million in ads while the GOP’s National Congressional Campaign Committee chipped in another $1.8 million for the race.

Moody has self-funded a lot of his campaign for about $2 million in ads, and the Club for Growth, which is backing Gray has spent $500,000 in ad money on the race.

Handel is the beneficiary of $700,000 in ad spending from Ending Spending, a super PAC founded by the Ricketts family.

If you add it up, and subtract what's left on hand, it looks like the Dem spent $6.2M, and the combined total for the R's was $7.2M. I doubt if that includes dark money "issue ads", although I don't know if there were such ads. It's not clear to me if the DNC did anything beyond funding 9 staffers.

PS- I think the $700K from "Ending Spending" is ironic...
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 19, 2017 02:35PM
Also, this interesting tidbit from the WSJ by way of the WaPo:

Quote

Consider this: Democrats control nine of the 10 congressional districts with the highest percentage of college-educated voters. Georgia-6 is the only exception, Dante Chinni pointed out last week in the Wall Street Journal.

Wait. I thought only "low-information" voters voted Dem?

wink smiley

Maybe they can make it 10 for 10 in June.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 19, 2017 10:15PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.

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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 19, 2017 10:39PM
Quote
billb
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.

As usual, the Democrats will be voted in to clean up the mess left by the Republicans. Been that way since 1976.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 19, 2017 11:25PM
Quote
Speedy
Quote
billb
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.

As usual, the Democrats will be voted in to clean up the mess left by the Republicans. Been that way since 1976.

Try 1932.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 19, 2017 11:33PM
Quote
Dennis S
Quote
Speedy
Quote
billb
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.

As usual, the Democrats will be voted in to clean up the mess left by the Republicans. Been that way since 1976.

Try 1932.

Pres. Eisenhower did some good and left no disaster.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 20, 2017 12:04AM
Quote
Speedy
Quote
Dennis S
Quote
Speedy
Quote
billb
When will Democrats win again.
Money couldn't buy one, again.

As usual, the Democrats will be voted in to clean up the mess left by the Republicans. Been that way since 1976.

Try 1932.

Pres. Eisenhower did some good and left no disaster.

Hoover did. Ike was an anomaly.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/2017 12:05AM by Dennis S.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 20, 2017 09:38PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.



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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Acer
Date: April 21, 2017 09:07AM
Disaffected Sanders voters are throwing Georgia representative elections? That man has a long reach.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 21, 2017 04:01PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 21, 2017 06:36PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...



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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 23, 2017 09:56PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 23, 2017 11:31PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.

I chime in when it's stupidly obvious that what the DNC is doing is the wrong thing.

[www.washingtonpost.com]





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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 24, 2017 09:18AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.

I chime in when it's stupidly obvious that what the DNC is doing is the wrong thing.

[www.washingtonpost.com]


Do you chime in on RNC minutia? No. You're like "Hey, I don't like the way you painted your house." you spend more time attacking Democrats than Republicans. You chose Independent. Attack Jill Stein.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 24, 2017 09:33AM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.

I chime in when it's stupidly obvious that what the DNC is doing is the wrong thing.

[www.washingtonpost.com]


Do you chime in on RNC minutia? No. You're like "Hey, I don't like the way you painted your house."

No, I am pointing out your house is getting egged because you picked the worst colors in recent history.

Quote

you spend more time attacking Democrats than Republicans.

Prove it.



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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 24, 2017 01:44PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.

I chime in when it's stupidly obvious that what the DNC is doing is the wrong thing.

[www.washingtonpost.com]


Do you chime in on RNC minutia? No. You're like "Hey, I don't like the way you painted your house."

No, I am pointing out your house is getting egged because you picked the worst colors in recent history.

Quote

you spend more time attacking Democrats than Republicans.

Prove it.

I think that's just some Russian intel you Bros sucked down. Attacking Dems is your thing. Prove it's not true. If you "do" prove it. I don't care. Trump is in the White House because of people like you. That's not going to change. Instead of turning your focus on him, you turn it on the entity that rightly places the blame on you. So you have to vigorously prove that it isn't cuz you can't ever say. I was wrong to not support the only opposition to Trump which meant that I was fine with the prospect of Trump becoming President. Man up and be honest.
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Re: GA District 6's "jungle" election / whatever
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 24, 2017 02:11PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Another election where the Dems lose their chance to flip a seat by 6,000 voters.


I thought I wasn't needed.

Mischief makers.

Pointing out your purity requirements is costing the DNC seats is mischief? Whatevs...

Either join and try to make it better or start something else. You chime in issues that don't involve the Bros.

I chime in when it's stupidly obvious that what the DNC is doing is the wrong thing.

[www.washingtonpost.com]


Do you chime in on RNC minutia? No. You're like "Hey, I don't like the way you painted your house."

No, I am pointing out your house is getting egged because you picked the worst colors in recent history.

Quote

you spend more time attacking Democrats than Republicans.

Prove it.

I think that's just some Russian intel you Bros sucked down. Attacking Dems is your thing. Prove it's not true. If you "do" prove it. I don't care. Trump is in the White House because of people like you. That's not going to change. Instead of turning your focus on him, you turn it on the entity that rightly places the blame on you. So you have to vigorously prove that it isn't cuz you can't ever say. I was wrong to not support the only opposition to Trump which meant that I was fine with the prospect of Trump becoming President. Man up and be honest.

Once again blaming others when the cause was the known shortcomings of your candidate. Man up and take the blame. Then make some changes so you might start winning again.



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