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What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: August 10, 2017 11:09AM
People have lost their minds.

Slightly more than half of Republicans say they would support postponing the 2020 presidential election if President Trump proposed it to make sure only eligible American citizens can vote, according to a new survey.

According to a poll conducted by two academic authors and published by The Washington Post, 52 percent of Republicans said they would back a postponement of the next election if Trump called for it.


[thehill.com]
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: August 10, 2017 11:34AM
It's a grand thing that such morans have as little understanding of how our nation is governed as they have sense in their heads.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: August 10, 2017 11:49AM

Those GOPers are pretty flocked up.


That being said, I'm rather leery about this survey.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: August 10, 2017 12:17PM
Quote
Steve G.
That being said, I'm rather leery about this survey.

The survey interviewed a sample of 1,325 Americans from June 5 through 20. Respondents were recruited from the Qualtrics online panel who had previously reported identifying with or leaning toward one of the two major parties with a focus on the 650 respondents who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. The sample was weighted to match the population in terms of sex, age, race and education.

After some initial questions, the survey then asked two questions about postponing the 2020 election.

1)If Donald Trump were to say that the 2020 presidential election should be postponed until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote, would you support or oppose postponing the election? (52% agreed)

2)What if both Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress were to say that the 2020 presidential election should be postponed until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote? Would you support or oppose postponing the election? (56% agreed)



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: August 10, 2017 12:43PM
....and the other half want to impeach him.......??



____________________________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Ted King
Date: August 10, 2017 12:56PM
Those poll results dovetail nicely with the results of a YouGov poll of Republican voters I mentioned in another thread that had this response:

Quote

47 percent explicitly say that punishing biased news outlets is more important than protecting freedom of the press.




Well, I guess they are still holding on to their God and their guns.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 08/10/2017 01:07PM by Ted King.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: $tevie
Date: August 10, 2017 01:04PM
Why do these folks stay in this country when any number of dictatorships would be more to their taste?



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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2017 01:37PM
Well, you have to cut them a little slack, because of when Obama declared martial law and suspended elections as part of Jade Helm, just like we were warned.

Oh wait.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 10, 2017 01:55PM
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: August 10, 2017 02:07PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

Huh? There are sampling flaws here, but the sample size itself is fine.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2017 02:13PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

WTF?

In general, a smaller sample size means a broader margin of error, sure. But unless there were other errors, this sample size is not that far off from the typical political poll.

...and yes, as the survey authors note, these are hypothetical situations. All that said, I don't think you should blithely reject the poll results indicating that roughly half of self-identified Republicans would be just fine postponing the next presidential election just because the incumbent told them they should, based on a theory he frequently espouses, but for which there has been little to no evidence of.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Ted King
Date: August 10, 2017 02:57PM
I was poking around about what the Constitution says about when presidential elections will be held and I guess I had assumed that there was a fairly hard time frame wired into the Constitution - but evidently there isn't, exactly. The language of Article II seems to suggest that Congress has the power to set the date of federal elections, so I guess the Republican controlled Congress could actually change the current law for the date of federal elections if they could get the votes to do so. It does seem like the language of the Constitution does mandate an election for president every four years so though Congress theoretically could delay the vote, there is probably a limit of a few months or so that they could get away with it before the courts made them go ahead with the elections.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: August 10, 2017 05:38PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

the sample size for the survey was 1,325 American adults, which is higher than the average sample size for a national poll (the average is around 1,000)
A lot of people respond emotionally that a sample of 1,000 people can't represent the views of all Americans, but scientifically it does.
more interesting stuff about the methodology behind sample size here:
[www.pewresearch.org]
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: August 10, 2017 05:40PM
Quote
Ted King
I was poking around about what the Constitution says about when presidential elections will be held and I guess I had assumed that there was a fairly hard time frame wired into the Constitution - but evidently there isn't, exactly. The language of Article II seems to suggest that Congress has the power to set the date of federal elections, so I guess the Republican controlled Congress could actually change the current law for the date of federal elections if they could get the votes to do so. It does seem like the language of the Constitution does mandate an election for president every four years so though Congress theoretically could delay the vote, there is probably a limit of a few months or so that they could get away with it before the courts made them go ahead with the elections.

I'm curious about how the issue of term limits factors in. Congress has two years, the Prez 4 and Senators 6. If that is up and there's been no election, then what?
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 10, 2017 06:49PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

the sample size for the survey was 1,325 American adults, which is higher than the average sample size for a national poll (the average is around 1,000)
A lot of people respond emotionally that a sample of 1,000 people can't represent the views of all Americans, but scientifically it does.
more interesting stuff about the methodology behind sample size here:
[www.pewresearch.org]

To get a reliable and repeatable result (so that a significan minority is represented by more than 5 people), a poll needs to be around 4,000 minimum. People doing the polls can post a margin of error of something like plus/minus 4%, but that's statistically derived and can be off by 50%. This was a poll of 1,325 but the "Republican" portion of people polled was only 650. It's barely enough to identify a change in a trend. It's borderline for a general opinion like "Half of Republicans."



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: August 10, 2017 09:24PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

the sample size for the survey was 1,325 American adults, which is higher than the average sample size for a national poll (the average is around 1,000)
A lot of people respond emotionally that a sample of 1,000 people can't represent the views of all Americans, but scientifically it does.
more interesting stuff about the methodology behind sample size here:
[www.pewresearch.org]

To get a reliable and repeatable result (so that a significan minority is represented by more than 5 people), a poll needs to be around 4,000 minimum. People doing the polls can post a margin of error of something like plus/minus 4%, but that's statistically derived and can be off by 50%. This was a poll of 1,325 but the "Republican" portion of people polled was only 650. It's barely enough to identify a change in a trend. It's borderline for a general opinion like "Half of Republicans."

the attached article addresses your questions - you don't need 4,000 people to do a very scientifically sound national survey.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Speedy
Date: August 10, 2017 09:56PM
Fake poll.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 10, 2017 11:47PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
650 people isn't enough to accurately represent the US population. The poll was flawed before they even started phoning.

the sample size for the survey was 1,325 American adults, which is higher than the average sample size for a national poll (the average is around 1,000)
A lot of people respond emotionally that a sample of 1,000 people can't represent the views of all Americans, but scientifically it does.
more interesting stuff about the methodology behind sample size here:
[www.pewresearch.org]

To get a reliable and repeatable result (so that a significan minority is represented by more than 5 people), a poll needs to be around 4,000 minimum. People doing the polls can post a margin of error of something like plus/minus 4%, but that's statistically derived and can be off by 50%. This was a poll of 1,325 but the "Republican" portion of people polled was only 650. It's barely enough to identify a change in a trend. It's borderline for a general opinion like "Half of Republicans."

the attached article addresses your questions - you don't need 4,000 people to do a very scientifically sound national survey.

It glosses over them pretty well.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: August 11, 2017 09:54AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
To get a reliable and repeatable result (so that a significan minority is represented by more than 5 people), a poll needs to be around 4,000 minimum. People doing the polls can post a margin of error of something like plus/minus 4%, but that's statistically derived and can be off by 50%. This was a poll of 1,325 but the "Republican" portion of people polled was only 650. It's barely enough to identify a change in a trend. It's borderline for a general opinion like "Half of Republicans."

I don't have any idea what idea you're trying to convey here, but it sounds like you don't understand probability and statistics.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: Ted King
Date: August 11, 2017 11:28AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Ted King
I was poking around about what the Constitution says about when presidential elections will be held and I guess I had assumed that there was a fairly hard time frame wired into the Constitution - but evidently there isn't, exactly. The language of Article II seems to suggest that Congress has the power to set the date of federal elections, so I guess the Republican controlled Congress could actually change the current law for the date of federal elections if they could get the votes to do so. It does seem like the language of the Constitution does mandate an election for president every four years so though Congress theoretically could delay the vote, there is probably a limit of a few months or so that they could get away with it before the courts made them go ahead with the elections.

I'm curious about how the issue of term limits factors in. Congress has two years, the Prez 4 and Senators 6. If that is up and there's been no election, then what?

Good question. Hopefully we won't have to find out.
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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: August West
Date: August 12, 2017 04:36PM
Quote

...but it sounds like you don't understand probability and statistics.

I, for one, welcome your explanation.



Picasso in his studio after the liberation of Paris, taken by my friend and mentor.

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Re: What? Half of Republicans OK with postponing the 2020 election (if Trump wants to)
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: August 14, 2017 01:32PM
Well, it doesn't take more than 650 well-selected participants to produce statistically powerful results for a known population. This survey uses Qualtrics-picked respondents, which means that the sample is balanced to be demographically similar to the actual population. When other factors are well controlled (this is what good sampling does), you can determine significance to 98% certainty with a population of 650. I honestly don't know what Filliam means by "something like plus/minus 4%, but that's statistically derived and can be off by 50%," but it sounds like he's referring to studies with expansive confidence intervals. You wouldn't need such imprecision with 650 data points.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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