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NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: Ted King
Date: September 12, 2018 12:56PM
The polling averages have been showing a pretty consistent loss by Trump in his approval rating the last few weeks. This NPR article focuses on polling in the Midwest:

[www.npr.org]

Quote

The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in July — and largely because of voters in the Midwest. They have swung 13 points in Democrats' direction since July. That Midwestern shift is consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed Trump's support there starting to erode.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

Trump has waged trade wars with several countries, aiming to renegotiate deals and has instituted tariffs on imports that have been met with retaliatory tariffs on exports. Many of those have taken a toll on Midwestern farmers, for example. And some automakers have come out against Trump's moves on car imports, hitting Trump with some tough headlines.
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"It's not that Democrats are going to carry rural America," Miringoff stressed, "but [Republicans are] not performing the way the president needs them to."

In small towns, for example, there was an 11-point swing toward Democrats, and there was a 6-point drop-off among rural voters on the congressional ballot.

The president's approval rating in the suburbs is just 34 percent. And in those same suburbs, Democrats enjoy a whopping 56-to-34-percent advantage over Republicans on who Americans are more likely to vote for.

That is particularly problematic for Republicans, because many of the key House races for control of the House run through the suburbs.

There is also a massive gender gap. Men approve of the job Trump is doing by a 50-to-42-percent margin. But women, who are fueling Democratic hopes in these midterm elections, disapprove of his job 62-to-28 percent.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won 41 percent of women, according to exit polls.

"This is an election about gender," Miringoff said, pointing out that party identification and race are still major factors, but the gender numbers are much bigger than might be expected after 2016.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: bfd
Date: September 12, 2018 01:00PM
Unfortunately, he's not up for re-election. Much can - and likely will - happen before then.

At least for now, the data suggests that there could be a shift in power in Congress - which would hog-tie him in much the same way Obama was hindered. (we know how that worked out) We could see Trump running wild with what he will claim are Executive Privileges … He's almost there now.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: pdq
Date: September 12, 2018 01:57PM
Being a midwesterner, this is encouraging.

I won't be counting chickens until November 7th, though. But if Scott Walker finds himself out on his Keister, I might even celebrate with chicken soup.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 12, 2018 02:40PM
Polling has been even less reliable since 2016. We have to wait to see if the 3% of secret 45 supporters will balance out the feeble attempts of the Democrats to lure independents and millennials to actually show up to vote.



In tha 360. [url=Zee Maps Now requires a subscription/payment to work]MRF User Map[/url]
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: September 12, 2018 03:01PM
Eh, I'm going to take good news where i can get it.



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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: September 12, 2018 04:13PM
I'll believe it all when I see the idiots scraping the "TRUMP" stickers off their rusty pickups with the confederate flag on the back window.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 12, 2018 04:33PM
Time for a war! He could invade Puerto Rico.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: September 12, 2018 04:57PM
Quote
cbelt3
I'll believe it all when I see the idiots scraping the "TRUMP" stickers off their rusty pickups with the confederate flag on the back window.

That'll never happen. Its not necessary. Nixon had a core group that never wavered through impeachment yet history's judgement is not in question.



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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 12, 2018 08:47PM
Quote
mattkime
Quote
cbelt3
I'll believe it all when I see the idiots scraping the "TRUMP" stickers off their rusty pickups with the confederate flag on the back window.

That'll never happen. Its not necessary. Nixon had a core group that never wavered through impeachment yet history's judgement is not in question.

Many are still alive and are the same group that will back Pres. Trump.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 12, 2018 09:32PM
The plummeting farm prices are showing a real effect in my neck of the woods.

And the Chinese tariffs have converted a small businessman I know from Pro-Trump to anti-Trump.
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 12, 2018 11:09PM
Will the Chinese or Russian oligarchs buy up failing family farms?



In tha 360. [url=Zee Maps Now requires a subscription/payment to work]MRF User Map[/url]
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Re: NPR: "Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress"
Posted by: deckeda
Date: September 13, 2018 02:53PM
My reaction is meh.

Gender is only part of it. "We" thought "for sure" gender (or ethnicity, or ...) would elect someone else in 2016. "They" did not.

Race plays a role, white men play the biggest role (unfortunately). And so on.

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Didn't NPR just get finished doing a series on why people don't vote?

"We don't matter, our vote doesn't matter ...." Poor baby! Your single vote was not heard? How can that BE?

Education is hard.
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