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Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: samintx
Date: October 13, 2018 06:19PM
I thought 45 was buds with China..he keeps throwing out how much he likes them. However I’m reading articles from people that should know we, Orange Cheeto, is going to begin a Cold War with China. Even our Navy is going to be more aggressive.

Is the Trump family still getting all their stuff made in China or is that going to be cut off by China.

Sorry, no more double chocolate cake for you, President Shee.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Acer
Date: October 13, 2018 08:03PM
To be fair, China has been throwing its weight around a bit, mainly squatting on some disputed tiny islands. A little saber rattling lets everyone know we're paying attention. When you don't rattle at the right time, suddenly Kuwait gets invaded.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: billb
Date: October 14, 2018 04:58AM
It's about time.
It's about time for a level playing field in trade.
Tariffs are an attempt to level that playing field.

When China's economy was small it made sense to allow for them to have economic advantages. Now that their economy is larger than ours it is time for balance. In fact it may actually be time to reverse the advantages.



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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 14, 2018 09:16AM
Quote
billb
It's about time.
It's about time for a level playing field in trade.
Tariffs are an attempt to level that playing field.

When China's economy was small it made sense to allow for them to have economic advantages. Now that their economy is larger than ours it is time for balance. In fact it may actually be time to reverse the advantages.

FYI: The imbalance has actually gotten considerably worse -- the worst in history -- since Drumpf imposed the tariffs.

The trade deficit is at $31.7 billion as of September 2018, up from from $27.4 billion a year earlier.

The thing about tariffs is that they tax us, not them. We still need the same goods, we still can't make the stuff in the United States, we just pay more for everything and it's that much harder to survive on salaries that haven't risen to match cost of living since the early 1990s.

These tariffs are stupid. Drumpf is a dangerous idiot.



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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: samintx
Date: October 14, 2018 09:28AM
[www.businessinsider.com]

Why did he lift sanctions in May on ZTE? Mixed signals.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: max
Date: October 14, 2018 10:00AM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
billb
It's about time.
It's about time for a level playing field in trade.
Tariffs are an attempt to level that playing field.

When China's economy was small it made sense to allow for them to have economic advantages. Now that their economy is larger than ours it is time for balance. In fact it may actually be time to reverse the advantages.

FYI: The imbalance has actually gotten considerably worse -- the worst in history -- since Drumpf imposed the tariffs.

The trade deficit is at $31.7 billion as of September 2018, up from from $27.4 billion a year earlier.
Bill does have a point, a point understood by every American business affected I talked to in the last two months.
The reason for the increase in the deficit is the retaliatory tariffs Chinese imposed. Ours right now are 10 percent, Chinese are 25. Ten percent although painful, can be dealt with, 25percent increase in costs stops the trade, you find other sources, or make alternate solutions.
I talked to American exporters of high technology and exporters of raw materials, importers of varied industrial and consumer products. As these businesses were the the first to be hit I expected a very critical stance on the tariffs. Surprisingly it was 90 percent supportive. With one caveat. Time.
They understood the tariffs were a negotiating ploy, and that structural correction in China trade was badly needed, but all of this needed to be concluded fairly soon...

Quote
Sarcany
. We still need the same goods, we still can't make the stuff in the United States, we just pay more for everything and it's that much harder to survive on salaries that haven't risen to match cost of living since the early 1990s.
That is a pure FUD.
True we will not be making stuff that requires dirty manufacturing, that was one reason we dumped it on China. True our costs of doing business are not very competitive, that was another reason we manufacture consumer goods in the third word and China. But if we dont get it from China, we will buy it from somewhere else. Vietnam and India are the new manufacturing frontiers. If China tariffs stick, the only disruption you are going to see is the time it takes to shift the sources of supply, from six months to a year....




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end.
One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution;
one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship."
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 14, 2018 10:09AM
Quote
max
Quote
Sarcany
. We still need the same goods, we still can't make the stuff in the United States, we just pay more for everything and it's that much harder to survive on salaries that haven't risen to match cost of living since the early 1990s.
That is a pure FUD.
True we will not be making stuff that requires dirty manufacturing, that was one reason we dumped it on China. True our costs of doing business are not very competitive, that was another reason we manufacture consumer goods in the third word and China. But if we dont get it from China, we will buy it from somewhere else. Vietnam and India are the new manufacturing frontiers. If China tariffs stick, the only disruption you are going to see is the time it takes to shift the sources of supply, from six months to a year...

"Dirty" manufacturing is the tiniest part of it.

"Agile" manufacturing is the key. If you need it done, it can take less than a month to dedicate a factory and get a labor force going in China. The same thing can take 5 years in the United States.

Sure, we can build up other countries to replace Chinese manufacturing. At great expense and a heck of a lot longer than six months. Might take 20 years. And then we'll have a bigger trade deficit spread out among those other countries.

To do so would be a waste of billions upon billions of dollars spent fighting a non-existent problem.

Trade deficits aren't bad. The word "deficit" isn't a negative in this context. A trade deficit most frequently occurs when the economy is doing well because we can afford to buy more stuff. The deficit is going to go down when the impact of the new tax bill is felt next year and that won't be because of tariffs. It'll be because more people will be broke and begging in the streets.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/14/2018 10:10AM by Sarcany.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: max
Date: October 14, 2018 11:20AM
Quote
Sarcany
"Agile" manufacturing is the key. If you need it done, it can take less than a month to dedicate a factory and get a labor force going in China. The same thing can take 5 years in the United States.
Thanks for sharing your experience, I have only done it several times in China and almost as many here. I am sure you could tell us more about your experience.....

Quote
Sarcany
Sure, we can build up other countries to replace Chinese manufacturing. At great expense and a heck of a lot longer than six months. Might take 20 years..

Total bullcrap.
Nobody is talking about "building up", but shifting production to an already established industrial base.
I always have a back up lined up for existing overseas production and from the countries I have looked at in Asia the two quoted would be a six to 9 nine month process. With preliminary contacts already in place. Both Japanese, Koreans and French are already firmly established in Vietnam with quite sophisticated manufacturing operations. The costs of production are lower than China. My potential partners there are the Koreans. I also have a secondary, all Vietnamese partnership lined up. In India I have several local, existing manufacturing operations inspected and qualified. Even Malaysia could be an option, but after having Vietnam as the best option and a 2nd backup, I skipped a closer look, turning to Europe instead for long range planning.

My great expense would be staying 3 months in some factory dorm in Vietnam, overseeing initial production....

20 years indeed....




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end.
One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution;
one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship."
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Acer
Date: October 14, 2018 11:38AM
Serious comment, and not a snark, as I very much respect first-hand knowledge in these discussions. If we merely shift the dirty and agile manufacturing from China to India or Southeast Asia, isn't this just spreading around the trade deficit, not actually reducing it? Now, decentralizing so as not to be over-dependent on one country is a good thing from my perspective. But Trump didn't run on spreading the trade among other nations, he ran on bringing it home. How does the tariff war bring it home if we can't do these things at home?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/14/2018 11:41AM by Acer.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: max
Date: October 14, 2018 12:41PM
I do not think we will decrease, much less eliminate trade deficit at all, Trump's beliefs aside (even if they are or not genuine). But decreasing the structural barriers in a market as critical as China is a good thing and might decrease some of the trade deficit with that country. At least it would lessen the rise of our deficits with them in the future and strengthen some of our exporting industries. A secondary benefit would be setting up a model of dealing with a similar economy in a future.

Again, this is not my personal sentiment, (I am more neutral on this, with most of my efforts directed of dealing with the political reality and setting up alternate solutions) but of most importers and exporters, "Trump is our opportunity to deal with the issue, as normal administrations would not, and this is important for the country, well overdue" ...
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 14, 2018 02:14PM
Quote
max

Again, this is not my personal sentiment, (I am more neutral on this, with most of my efforts directed of dealing with the political reality and setting up alternate solutions) but of most importers and exporters, "Trump is our opportunity to deal with the issue, as normal administrations would not, and this is important for the country, well overdue" ...

If it's not your personal sentiment then leave off that bogus argument.

There's nothing to "deal with."

Trade "deficits" are, in and of themselves, meaningless numerical blips.

Oh, I had a "gray" deficit today because the sky was too blue. Better kick up the coal-burning to make the sky gray again. That'll fix my "deficit!"



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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: October 14, 2018 03:11PM
Quote
max
"Trump is our opportunity to deal with the issue, as normal administrations would not, and this is important for the country, well overdue" ...

Citation?




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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Speedy
Date: October 14, 2018 03:20PM
The robots will win in the end.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 14, 2018 05:05PM
Quote
Speedy
The robots will win in the end.

The nanobots will win in the end.



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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: max
Date: October 14, 2018 08:50PM
Quote
DeusxMac
Quote
max
Citation?
Really?
Illustrating your acute comprehension disorder, again, DeusxMac?
Read the tread again, my boy, maybe this time you will manage to learn something...

Quote
Sarcany
If it's not your personal sentiment then leave off that bogus argument.
It is funny, you are totally clueless on the subject, yet spouting your personal BS views as if it was biblical dogma.

I have spent last two months actually working the issue, meeting both exporters and importers on both sides, and because their views are inconvenient to to your preconceived narrative, they must be"bogus".

Sure Chak, the only mistake I made was taking you seriously and giving you serious answer....


The truly hysterical paert is where you are trying to instruct somebody who actually has the expertise and experience on setting up both domestic and foreign production on how to do so....




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end.
One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution;
one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship."
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Re: Cold War coming with China?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 14, 2018 09:04PM
Quote
max
It is funny, you are totally clueless on the subject, yet spouting your personal BS views as if it was biblical dogma.

I have spent last two months actually working the issue, meeting both exporters and importers on both sides, and because their views are inconvenient to to your preconceived narrative, they must be"bogus".

Sure Chak, the only mistake I made was taking you seriously and giving you serious answer....

The truly hysterical paert is where you are trying to instruct somebody who actually has the expertise and experience on setting up both domestic and foreign production on how to do so....

Wow.

Two things about that post are astonishing!

First, you are defending a statement as your "expert" opinion after you published with an explicit disclaimer that it wasn't your opinion.

Second, your intuition about the ignorance of strangers on the Internet is a super-power!







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/14/2018 09:06PM by Sarcany.
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