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"The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: April 09, 2019 09:32PM
Quote

Probability of Biden dying within four years of election: 20.7%

Within eight years of election: 44.5%

Probability of Sanders dying within four years of election: 22.8%

Within eight years of election: 48%

Now the real fun starts.

Risk of developing dementia by end of first presidential term:

Biden: 7%

Sanders: 9%

Risk of developing dementia by end of second presidential term:

Biden: 12%

Sanders: 16%

These are admittedly rough cut estimates. They are based on lots of studies that show that in geriatric populations the risk of dementia doubles every five years with age, so that while approximately 2% of 70 year olds are demented, around 32% of 90 year olds have achieved this mental state.

But I’d say this is close enough for government work. Now it’s not completely valid, statistically speaking, to just add these probabilities up, given that one sort of confounds the other (dead men don’t have dementia), but again, close enough for our purposes.

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What happens when creepy Uncle Joe or shouty Uncle Bernie starts to seem not exactly all there any more, at least some of the time, but is still miles away from a formal Alzheimer’s diagnosis? I don’t think we want to find out the answer to that question.

[www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com]



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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: Blankity Blank
Date: April 09, 2019 10:19PM
Laughably full of holes.

Those aren’t likelihoods for Biden or Sanders, they’re general statistics sloppily applied to individuals with or without knowledge of their particular actual health and risk factors. No account given for the fact that if elected, they would have virtually unparalleled healthcare.

Clickbait conclusions drawn to reinforce the biases shown in the use of the dismissive nicknames.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: April 09, 2019 10:43PM
Be that as it may, I see no reason to elect an old codger when we have literally dozens of people running. And I, myself, am an old codger, so I know whereof I speak.

PS: did you read the article? It was filled with caveats.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/09/2019 10:44PM by $tevie.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: davester
Date: April 09, 2019 11:09PM
Missing from this analysis is that the current president is 100% mentally incapable of running a street corner lemonade stand, let alone a government agency.



"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/09/2019 11:10PM by davester.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: April 09, 2019 11:27PM
And yet we venerate RBG, and other Supremes as having th wisdom and the moral guidance to act in the appropriate vein. I'm pretty sick of this ageism, even if we have to accept that some will develop dementia, because some will develop cancer, and ALS, and cardiovascular disease, too.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: Blankity Blank
Date: April 10, 2019 12:01AM
Quote
$tevie
Be that as it may, I see no reason to elect an old codger when we have literally dozens of people running. And I, myself, am an old codger, so I know whereof I speak.
I see no reason to finally start jettisoning simplistic, stereotypical assumptions and biases, and instead try really hard to make choices on candidates based on their actual ideas, policies, record and abilities.

Quote

PS: did you read the article? It was filled with caveats.
The selected excerpts and the sloppiness, casual dismissiveness and “close enough for government work” stance didn’t encourage the idea the full article would be redeeming to any significant degree.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2019 12:02AM by Blankity Blank.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: bfd
Date: April 10, 2019 12:16AM
While we might be right to at least question an 88 year old surgeon operating on us or an 88 year old attorney defending us, the fact remains that if they can still do it - and there are those who can do so, and do so quite well - there is an experience factor that can't be overlooked when thinking about age. In the case of the Bern and the Bide, their experience in navigating the nonsense, knowing where the bodies are buried in the Capitol, having numerous "accounts payable " and getting things done in Congress can't really be duplicated by the up-and-comers and shouldn't be ignored by the rest of us.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 10, 2019 12:23AM
I'll always prefer the smartest, most capable person possible.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: sekker
Date: April 10, 2019 02:14AM
My FIL is approaching age 91, and he is still sharp as a tack.

He was so energetic into his early 80s that if our next President had his constitution, we would be fine.

My only issue with age is perception and the reality that if they WERE having mental issues, it would be hidden from the public.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: p8712
Date: April 10, 2019 06:33AM
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bfd
While we might be right to at least question an 88 year old surgeon operating on us or an 88 year old attorney defending us, the fact remains that if they can still do it - and there are those who can do so, and do so quite well - there is an experience factor

I just had an 82 year old surgeon work on me in December. I'm glad I went with him.

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Missing from this analysis is that the current president is 100% mentally incapable of running a street corner lemonade stand, let alone a government agency.

I'd take a semilucid dementia victim over what we have now.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: April 10, 2019 08:42AM
It's not the physical age, it's the mental age.
Anyone remember Ross Perot's running mate ? From VP candidate to nursing home in a few months.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: Acer
Date: April 10, 2019 09:52AM
Let's look at the sample set of recent Presidents over 70.

Reagan was 78 when he left office, and it's an open question whether he was beginning to slip mentally in his last years of office. His diagnosis was announced when he was 83.

Trump is 72 and well, you know.

Given a choice between two otherwise equals for this office I'd take someone younger over someone in their 70s.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2019 09:53AM by Acer.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: Blankity Blank
Date: April 10, 2019 09:58AM
Quote
Acer
Let's look at the sample set of recent Presidents over 70.

Reagan was 78 when he left office, and it's an open question whether he was beginning to slip mentally in his last years of office. His diagnosis was announced when he was 83.

Trump is 72 and well, you know.

Given a choice between two otherwise equals for this office I'd take someone younger over someone in their 70s.
tRump has shown ‘interesting’ cognitive behavior long before he hit his seventies.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: vision63
Date: April 10, 2019 12:30PM
We've only had one president that has chosen to absolutely reject our constitution. Now, they all have worked hard to put themselves in a position that enhances their powers. But even Nixon, a fighter, chose to resign over being further humiliated. We know who the outlier is.

A president dying or being sick in office isn't the worst thing that can happen in theory. I'd vote for an 81 year old Jerry Brown in a heartbeat. I'm not satisfied with caretaker presidencies. I want us to move forward. Only the smartest people can do that.
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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 10, 2019 12:34PM
The open question about Reagan was if he was suffering effects before he took office, not after.

45's father was known to have it, so there is about a 1 in 8 chance that he is absolutely suffering early effects right now. I think the evidence is pretty clear.

I just wonder who's actually behind this topic as a supposed news item. It seems fairly obvious to me that it is actually an early push poll to find out what percentage of the likely voting population really cares about the topic. Get the subject out there, and try to make it a talking point about two of the stronger Democratic candidates.



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Re: "The absurdity of an 80something president"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: April 11, 2019 01:40AM
It’s a blog post, not a news item.

People say they don’t like blind links, but if one does preview the link, then nobody bothers to click on the link and read it. Who the hell thinks Lawyers, Guns & Money is a news source, for crying out loud, let alone a place for push polls?



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