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Iran War?
Posted by: p8712
Date: May 14, 2019 01:30PM
120k Troops Would be Bad

Quote

A former aide in President George W. Bush’s administration expressed shock on Tuesday at a report that President Donald Trump’s staff reviewed a plan last week that would deploy 120,000 troops to counter Iran.

“I really cannot believe that we failed to learn anything from the first decade of this century,” Elise Jordan, who worked in the Bush White House, said during an appearance on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “And we are actually considering escalating with Iran in a war that would further destabilize the region and unleash God knows what in terms of chaos in a very troubled region already.”
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: May 14, 2019 02:01PM
Probably just amp up battles against Iran proxies like the Houthi and Hezbollah.

I'm reconsidering this even as I type it. We're dealing with moron and Putin puppet Trump here. He is a very dangerous individual.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: May 14, 2019 02:21PM
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Elise Jordan, who worked in the Bush White House, said...

So what? trump’s twice the man she is!
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: steve...
Date: May 14, 2019 02:44PM
I looked up hawk John Bolton's military experience. He joined the National Guard to avoid possibly getting drafted and sent to Vietnam.




Northern California Coast
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Ted King
Date: May 14, 2019 04:33PM
I think there's a collision of at least two things that pass for "strategic" thinking in Trump's head. One is that what he considers to be his primary allies in the region - Saudi Arabia and Israel - really want the US to overthrow the Iranian Mullahs. But I think that collides with his isolationist inclinations and, I think, an instinct that most large wars the US has gotten into in the past several decades have been losers.

I suspect that in his mind, he wouldn't have to decide between those two things because all he would have to do is drop Obama's agreement with Iran (felt good to do that one, for sure) and bluster a lot and then Iran would buckle under and give him an agreement better than Obama's. But, the guy is mentally ill so it is probably just as possible that he has wanted a war with Iran all along and my projection that he has some instincts as an anti-big war isolationist is a bogus projection.

It's also possible that because of Trump's mental illness that he has not ever formed enough coherent thoughts on the matter for any extended time that there is no meaningful way to talk about what drives him in this situation.

Whatever, it's not hard to see how easily this can blow up into a world economic destabilizer and worse, a huge bloody mess. And we have a mentally ill guy calling the shots. Maybe his buddy, Putin, will do him a favor and keep things from getting out of control.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: samintx
Date: May 14, 2019 05:22PM
With the delicate planning that goes into Cheeto’s day to day mundane activities I can’t imagine how he would conduct a war. Maybe watch a video game? Or Mad ?Max?
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: TheCaber
Date: May 14, 2019 06:02PM
Don't forget the immediate and lasting boost in support for any warlike activities by a sitting president. "Shoring up the base," I believe it's called.



=TC
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: May 14, 2019 06:08PM
I doubt Putin will allow him to Wag The Dog with Iran... maybe it's just to keep Assad on a short leash, or let Russia see our latest hardware?



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Ted King
Date: May 14, 2019 06:30PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
I doubt Putin will allow him to Wag The Dog with Iran... maybe it's just to keep Assad on a short leash, or let Russia see our latest hardware?

I can seriously see Putin presenting himself as the most "neutral" arbiter to reduce tensions. He's been angling for that (e.g., his schmoozing of Erdogan). If so, then I can see how he might pull off getting himself into a central arbiter position, but seeing what his longer term agenda is, is tougher for me to make out. I suspect that at least part of the longer term agenda he has in mind is to leverage Russian oil and natural gas resources by coordination with other producers.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/14/2019 06:31PM by Ted King.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 14, 2019 06:45PM
Quote
Ted King
...he considers to be his primary allies in the region - Saudi Arabia and Israel - really want the US to overthrow the Iranian Mullahs.

Gee, do ya think?

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"This is an open meeting with representatives of leading Arab countries that are sitting down together with Israel in order to advance the common interest of war with Iran," Netanyahu said.

And after unspecified intelligence saying Iran is gonna do something bad, we send warships, and then, there's a mysterious "sabotage" of oil tankers (that doesn't injure anyone, or severely damage ships - but Saudi Arabia is all over it).

Oh, my.

Bolton (the National Security Advisor of our country) has long dreamed of war with Iran, and seems to have the Orange one's ear.

Be verrrry skeptical folks. Your dog is being wagged.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 14, 2019 08:03PM
Putin's a far more nuanced influencer than anyone the U.S. has. Years of KGB training and membership taught him to play the long game.

tl;dr
Putin wants to be seen as the world's fixer and easy peasy answer (to whatever).

*****************

One of Trump's greatest attributes is his natural disinclination to get involved in other peoples' drama. What I'm saying is that yes, a bit of a break from our historical "nation building" is likely a healthy idea worth pursuing these days. To put it mildly.

Of course, his permanent need to be seen as The Man With the Largest Penis causes him to hire people like Bolton who, if given enough lead, would get us all dead.

Sleep tight!
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: May 14, 2019 08:30PM
Quote
deckeda

Of course, his permanent need to be seen as The Man With the Largest Penis causes him to hire people like Bolton who, if given enough lead, would get us all dead.


Trump and his staff are a fine tuned machine
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 15, 2019 08:52AM
The bullet points (apt, that particular phrase) today:

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U.S. officials are pointing the finger at elite Iranian military forces for the sabotage attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf.

RollingEyesSmiley5

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A week after claiming Iranian "preparations for possible attack" on U.S. forces in the region, the U.S. has ordered most State Department personnel out of neighboring Iraq.

eye twitch smiley

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U.S. and Iranian officials insist nobody wants a war (except John Bolton and Bibi and the Saudis) and President Trump has denied plans to send 120,000 troops to the region.

Checking my secret decoder ring - Ah. If Trump says there aren’t plans, there are.

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The U.S. military has refuted a senior British commander's assessment that there has been "no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria."

Damn Brits. Forever getting in the way of a good pretext for war story.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: May 15, 2019 10:01AM
Quote
pdq


Bolton (the National Security Advisor of our country) has long dreamed of war with Iran, and seems to have the Orange one's ear.

I think you've nailed the central theme.

Bolton 2019 = Dick Cheney circa 2003

He's always wanted it. He has a pliable commander-in-chief. Neither cares what allies think.

What they don't have is a public looking for revenge and an easy scapegoat, as Bush and Cheney did in 2003. I can't see a Democratic-led House getting behind this. As Pelosi said "there is no appetite in our country for war."
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 15, 2019 10:30AM
They don’t need Congress’ blessing for this upcoming war. We were TOLD they did back in elementary school, but those days have passed. All he has to do is order the troops/planes/whatever and it’ll be On Like Donkey Kong. With Congress continuing to say, “Huh, look at what happened. Guess we should increase funding for it now.”
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 15, 2019 10:44AM
Here’s some more detail of that British attempt to deflate the war balloon:

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As the Trump administration draws up war plans against Iran over what it says are threats to American troops and interests, a senior British military official told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday that he saw no increased risk from Iran or allied militias in Iraq or Syria.

...“We are aware of their presence clearly and we monitor them along with a whole range of others because of the environment we are in,” General Ghika said.

But he said, “No, there has been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq or Syria.”

This guy, Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, is also the deputy commander of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State. He ...um...should know, y’know?

Also, the coalition of the willing for war with Iran just shrank by one:

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On Tuesday, Spanish defense officials withdrew a Spanish frigate that was part of an American-led carrier strike group heading to the Persian Gulf, to avoid entanglement in any upcoming conflict with Iran.

They don’t want to be anywhere near the potential debacle coming. And just to be clear:

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Privately, several European officials described Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo as pushing an unsuspecting Mr. Trump through a series of steps that could put the United States on a course to war before the president realizes it.

I mean, I know he’s smarter than all his generals, and all. But (entirely hypothetical, I know) ...could Bolton pull a fast one on this very stable genius?
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 15, 2019 10:57AM
Iran will become a real, legitimate threat due entirely to Trump continuing to make them one. "His hands will be tied" at the point, as intended. Before or after, they'll resume nuke development he also allowed.

And he won't really care one way or another.

We're really good at getting into conflicts "reluctantly."
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: Sam3
Date: May 15, 2019 11:07AM
... And having young men and women come back in body bags with many parents and siblings mourning for no real reason.

Maybe we do need to re-institute the draft, let the politicians feel the pain of losing their own kids.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/15/2019 11:08AM by Sam3.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: May 15, 2019 11:46AM
Quote
Sam3
Maybe we do need to re-institute the draft, let the politicians feel the pain of losing their own kids.

Ah, in most cases, their kids don't get drafted.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: JoeH
Date: May 15, 2019 12:10PM
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DeusxMac
Quote
Sam3
Maybe we do need to re-institute the draft, let the politicians feel the pain of losing their own kids.

Ah, in most cases, their kids don't get drafted.

True, but they often end up in cushy NG and Reserve units not likely to be sent. What really starts to matter to the politicians is the reluctance to accept the draft by the parents and families of the non-willing draftees who are potential voters for their opponents. As much as anything, that is what ended our involvement in Viet Nam.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 15, 2019 01:23PM
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JoeH
Quote
DeusxMac
Quote
Sam3
Maybe we do need to re-institute the draft, let the politicians feel the pain of losing their own kids.

Ah, in most cases, their kids don't get drafted.

True, but they often end up in cushy NG and Reserve units not likely to be sent. What really starts to matter to the politicians is the reluctance to accept the draft by the parents and families of the non-willing draftees who are potential voters for their opponents. As much as anything, that is what ended our involvement in Viet Nam.

The fact that rich kids get deferments is as much a matter of politics as reinstating the draft. Draft requirements tend to be slippery as conflicts go on - conscription is a dangerous business.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: hal
Date: May 15, 2019 01:50PM
Stolen from Twitter:

Hypothesis: in the face of clear threats of war from the US, Iran is preparing for a counter-attack. The US then cites those preparations as reason to escalate threats. Repeat.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: p8712
Date: May 15, 2019 01:51PM
Quote
Sam3
... And having young men and women come back in body bags with many parents and siblings mourning for no real reason.

Maybe we do need to re-institute the draft, let the politicians feel the pain of losing their own kids.

FWIW, McCain's son was active duty while he was running for pres.
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Re: Iran War?
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: May 15, 2019 02:57PM
Quote
p8712
FWIW, McCain's son was active duty while he was running for pres.

Some choose to join, but they’re rarely, if ever, drafted.
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