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"The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 04, 2019 10:46AM
[www.vox.com]

Quote

The NYT/Siena polling — which is framed as a look at the state of the 2020 race exactly one year before Election Day — indicates the Electoral College advantage that landed Trump in the White House (despite him receiving nearly 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton) is still very much in play. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren in six battleground states that Trump won in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina — Trump is still extremely competitive.

Trump is broadly unpopular in each of those states, with his approval rating ranging from 2 percentage points underwater in Florida to 11 percentage points underwater in Wisconsin. But the story is different when Trump matches up against the top Democratic contenders. Here’s the state-by-state breakdown, via Nate Cohn, who wrote the Times piece about the polling:

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Beyond showing Biden better positioned to defeat Trump in battleground states than Sanders or Warren, the poll illustrates the “nightmare” scenario for Democrats outlined by David Wasserman in a July piece for MSNBC — one in which Trump loses the Electoral College by as many as 5 million votes, but still prevails in the Electoral College. To put it succinctly, no matter how much the Democratic nominee runs up the score in states like California and New York, it won’t matter if they can’t win in a handful of the aforementioned states that Trump won in 2016. And as of now, only Biden is positioned to do that — and even in that case his edge over Trump is within the margin of error.

What explains Trump’s enduring appeal in battleground states? According to the NYT/Siena poll — his overwhelming popularity with white voters who don’t have college degrees, which is just as strong now as it was three years ago.

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Cohn writes that “In contrast to recent national surveys, the Times/Siena polls find that the president’s lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016 ... The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far.”

Democrats, of course, dominated the 2018 midterms and took control of the House of Representatives by winning 40 seats nationwide. But Cohn’s piece indicates that those results aren’t necessarily predictive of what will happen in the presidential race next year, since “[n]early two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents.”

Still early and the open impeachment hearings are about to commence, but worrying never-the-less.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/04/2019 10:47AM by Ted King.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 04, 2019 11:32AM
“It’s the economy, stupid.” All Pres. Trump needs to do to win is sign a trade deal that lets him end the tariffs and he is a shoo-in.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/04/2019 11:34AM by Speedy.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: deckeda
Date: November 04, 2019 12:47PM
If unemployment keeps rising in MI and WI, he's gonna be hurting there.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: AllGold
Date: November 04, 2019 04:39PM
Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. The GOP has gerrymandered the @#$%& out of the state and there were reports of extremely long lines and long wait times in heavily Democratic Detroit. Add in the overall Democratic apathy created mainly by the russians. I really don't see Trump winning Michigan in 2020.



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 04, 2019 07:33PM
With the gutting of EPA environmental laws and safety rules, PA did gain about 600 jobs in the coal industry. This is only because there is still a demand for anthracite coal for metallurgical needs.



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 04, 2019 07:58PM
Quote
AllGold
Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. The GOP has gerrymandered the @#$%& out of the state and there were reports of extremely long lines and long wait times in heavily Democratic Detroit. Add in the overall Democratic apathy created mainly by the russians. I really don't see Trump winning Michigan in 2020.

Today's NYT/Sienna Polls for Michigan:
Biden 45, Trump 44
Warren 40, Trump 45
Sanders 46, Trump 42

Other battleground state polls at: [www.realclearpolitics.com]



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

"WE CALL BS!" -- Emma Gonzalez
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 04, 2019 08:17PM
So Sanders voters would not vote for Warren? Here we go again.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 04, 2019 09:26PM
Not voting for a female candidate is an echo of just one of the reasons why Bernie would have beaten Cheeto when Clinton couldn't.

Don't assume it's Bernie voters not voting for Warren unless you have parsed the poll results to prove that. While it's one of the first times recently that they had a reasonable size poll sample, the poll results are PDF images (not text) split across eight different documents which makes it very difficult to try to wrangle the data.



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: decay
Date: November 04, 2019 10:29PM
How are all those clean coal jobs working out?



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 04, 2019 10:46PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Not voting for a female candidate is an echo of just one of the reasons why Bernie would have beaten Cheeto when Clinton couldn't.

Don't assume it's Bernie voters not voting for Warren unless you have parsed the poll results to prove that. While it's one of the first times recently that they had a reasonable size poll sample, the poll results are PDF images (not text) split across eight different documents which makes it very difficult to try to wrangle the data.

Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular. Instead, he got his ass kicked. The natural assumption is if you lose, you'll win because you're some kind of special man.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 05, 2019 12:45AM
Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 05, 2019 01:02AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

You talked about it, you didn't "cover" it. People choose to stay home every election and they will again. More than 10,000 voted for that Jill Stein in Michigan.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 05, 2019 10:18AM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

You talked about it, you didn't "cover" it. People choose to stay home every election and they will again. More than 10,000 voted for that Jill Stein in Michigan.

This is apparently something new for you. Elections have had third and sometimes fourth party candidates going back as far as anyone can recall. Ever hear of Harold Stassen?
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: November 05, 2019 11:29AM
Quote
RgrF
Elections have had third and sometimes fourth party candidates going back as far as anyone can recall. Ever hear of Harold Stassen?

Was he ever a "third party" candidate?

"He further sought the Republican nomination for president in 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992."
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 05, 2019 11:45AM
He was an outsider like Bernie was in challenging for the nomination. As for the idea that Jill Stein voters would ever be tempted to vote for Hillary or any other party regular, well...
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 05, 2019 01:52PM
Quote
RgrF
Quote
vision63
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

You talked about it, you didn't "cover" it. People choose to stay home every election and they will again. More than 10,000 voted for that Jill Stein in Michigan.

This is apparently something new for you. Elections have had third and sometimes fourth party candidates going back as far as anyone can recall. Ever hear of Harold Stassen?

Everybody has heard of third party candidates. You can't possibly "cover" that for any single person reading this. What you're "covering" for is a candidate put up by a foreign government. That's not normal.
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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: AllGold
Date: November 05, 2019 06:01PM
Quote
Ombligo
Quote
AllGold
Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. The GOP has gerrymandered the @#$%& out of the state and there were reports of extremely long lines and long wait times in heavily Democratic Detroit. Add in the overall Democratic apathy created mainly by the russians. I really don't see Trump winning Michigan in 2020.

Today's NYT/Sienna Polls for Michigan:
Biden 45, Trump 44
Warren 40, Trump 45
Sanders 46, Trump 42

Other battleground state polls at: [www.realclearpolitics.com]

Sure. But just to be clear, my point was that apathy and active voter suppression is what tipped the state to Trump. I know the numbers you posted says otherwise, but I don't think the apathy will be there this time and it will take a lot of voter suppression for Trump to win.



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Re: "The Electoral College could save Trump in 2020"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 06, 2019 01:13PM
The 2016 race started with voter suppression. Even before the bad feelings generated when Clinton strong-armed the nomination away from Bernie, there was 5% to 7% of Dems and leaning Dems that would have never voted for her.



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/06/2019 01:24PM by Filliam H. Muffman.
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