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PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: tortoise
Date: March 16, 2020 06:38PM
We happen to have two friends who were unfortunate enough to be on the Princess Cruise that has been all over the news. Now they are trapped in quarantine at Travis Air Force base nearby and we are in regular contact with them via email and text. Much to our surprise and contrary to a lot of what is reported in the news and by the government as of yesterday afternoon they have not even been tested for the COVID-19. I personally do not trust our president surrounded by his army of yes men and am really growing concerned about just how bad things are likely to become.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: hal
Date: March 16, 2020 06:47PM
You're gonna need to edit this post or it will end up on the 'other' side

Sorry about your friends distress - what a nightmare, but also... litigation!
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: March 16, 2020 07:05PM
I guess you missed all the posts about how there are very few tests. The current best option is if third party lab has developed their own test and gotten approved.

The University of Washington medical research lab has drive through testing... only for employees or current patients with symptoms.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: samintx
Date: March 17, 2020 12:03AM
Let’s see, first we have 1 mill and then 4 mill to be delivered by Monday. That seems like a good start...."..................................if it ever happenedRollingEyesSmiley5
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: March 17, 2020 12:34AM
Quote
samintx
Let’s see, first we have 1 mill and then 4 mill to be delivered by Monday. That seems like a good start...."..................................if it ever happenedRollingEyesSmiley5

I believe there are some 1-million-plus kits on-order and expected this week. They're the kits that Pence promised by the end of last week. I genuinely believe that he requested those kits. He was just being his usual dumb self expecting god to step in and miracle-up the kits for him when he wanted them instead of asking how long it might take for them to be manufactured.

But once they're delivered to the gov't, the tests then have to be repackaged and distributed to test-centers and people need to be trained on them. And they have to work out how to process requests for testing. And the kits need to be checked for quality-control somewhere along the way.

My guess is that we'll only be up another thousand or so tests for the week, even if those potentially-fictional test kits ever make it out of the potentially-fictional factory.



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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Sam3
Date: March 17, 2020 04:16AM
Getting back to the topic, these 2000 or so people who have been quarantined on the various military bases are being treated quite poorly. Most have not been tested, they even haven't had a basic triage done no temperatures taken, etc, they are kept in unsanitary conditions, lacking basic items like soap. It's as if they are prisoners in a prison.

[www.usatoday.com]

[www.courant.com]



The arts are not luxuries but assets that give way more than they cost.
--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 17, 2020 10:41AM
Quote
Sam3
Getting back to the topic, these 2000 or so people who have been quarantined on the various military bases are being treated quite poorly. Most have not been tested, they even haven't had a basic triage done no temperatures taken, etc, they are kept in unsanitary conditions, lacking basic items like soap. It's as if they are prisoners in a prison.

[www.usatoday.com]

[www.courant.com]

I'm really sorry to hear that. Makes no sense.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: March 17, 2020 11:28AM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
samintx
Let’s see, first we have 1 mill and then 4 mill to be delivered by Monday. That seems like a good start...."..................................if it ever happenedRollingEyesSmiley5

I believe there are some 1-million-plus kits on-order and expected this week. They're the kits that Pence promised by the end of last week. I genuinely believe that he requested those kits. He was just being his usual dumb self expecting god to step in and miracle-up the kits for him when he wanted them instead of asking how long it might take for them to be manufactured.

But once they're delivered to the gov't, the tests then have to be repackaged and distributed to test-centers and people need to be trained on them. And they have to work out how to process requests for testing. And the kits need to be checked for quality-control somewhere along the way.

My guess is that we'll only be up another thousand or so tests for the week, even if those potentially-fictional test kits ever make it out of the potentially-fictional factory.

Aaaaaand, even at 100% test kit processing efficiency, once everyone who needs a test kit has a test kit, the entire United States will be able to complete.......


.......wait for it.......

.......roughly 28,000 samples per day.

1,000,000 / 28,000 = 37 days to process a million kits (at 100% efficiency, if we put all other PCR tests on hold nationwide).

That's well over a month. Before we find out who is positive right now.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 17, 2020 12:12PM
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
samintx
Let’s see, first we have 1 mill and then 4 mill to be delivered by Monday. That seems like a good start...."..................................if it ever happenedRollingEyesSmiley5

I believe there are some 1-million-plus kits on-order and expected this week. They're the kits that Pence promised by the end of last week. I genuinely believe that he requested those kits. He was just being his usual dumb self expecting god to step in and miracle-up the kits for him when he wanted them instead of asking how long it might take for them to be manufactured.

But once they're delivered to the gov't, the tests then have to be repackaged and distributed to test-centers and people need to be trained on them. And they have to work out how to process requests for testing. And the kits need to be checked for quality-control somewhere along the way.

My guess is that we'll only be up another thousand or so tests for the week, even if those potentially-fictional test kits ever make it out of the potentially-fictional factory.

Aaaaaand, even at 100% test kit processing efficiency, once everyone who needs a test kit has a test kit, the entire United States will be able to complete.......


.......wait for it.......

.......roughly 28,000 samples per day.

1,000,000 / 28,000 = 37 days to process a million kits (at 100% efficiency, if we put all other PCR tests on hold nationwide).

That's well over a month. Before we find out who is positive right now.


One thing that might mitigate that. Maybe...this thing is going across the country in waves. WA should need fewer tests and can help other states, as our numbers start to go down, for example. Our labs have been asked to help others by the feds but right now can only handle western Washington.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: March 17, 2020 12:23PM
I think we have lots of competent and dedicated people who will do their absolute best to keep this from spreading as quickly as it might.

I don't think we'll have any real perspective on it, though, until well after we have weathered it. I have great admiration for those doing the hard work right now, because they have to do it half-blind. My expectations are low, but not because of their commitment or competency - rather, because a leadership vacuum at the very top has hobbled everyone else.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: bfd
Date: March 17, 2020 01:01PM
Quote
Sam3
Getting back to the topic, these 2000 or so people who have been quarantined on the various military bases are being treated quite poorly. Most have not been tested, they even haven't had a basic triage done no temperatures taken, etc, they are kept in unsanitary conditions, lacking basic items like soap. It's as if they are prisoners in a prison.

[www.usatoday.com]

[www.courant.com]


Why would this poor excuse for a government treat these travelers US Citizens any differently than travelers who are caged up at the border? Wonder how they're doing right about now?
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Blankity Blank
Date: March 17, 2020 03:10PM
Quote
rjmacs
I think we have lots of competent and dedicated people who will do their absolute best to keep this from spreading as quickly as it might.

I don't think we'll have any real perspective on it, though, until well after we have weathered it. I have great admiration for those doing the hard work right now, because they have to do it half-blind. My expectations are low, but not because of their commitment or competency - rather, because a leadership vacuum at the very top has hobbled everyone else.

A ‘leadership’ that will with a straight face and mouthful of lies claim credit for being the font of all successes and slough off responsibility for any shortcomings. “A perfect response to the virus” will be legend in its own mind.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: SteveO
Date: March 17, 2020 04:08PM
>being his usual dumb self expecting god to step in and miracle-up the kits for him when he wanted them instead of asking how long it might take for them to be manufactured.

LOLOL thanks needed that.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: March 18, 2020 02:47AM
Does anybody have a detailed explanation of how a corona virus test actually works? I've done a few hundred pcr's but each one started with a measure of how much RNA we started with. I wonder how you do this on a human sample -- is it blood, saliva? Each step requires additional time, manipulations, and, if you want to get it right, a measurement of something (typically absorbance at 260 nanometers). The picture that Kevin Drum showed was the result of a reverse-transcription pcr, which is different than qpcr.
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Re: PSA: things are not as they appear
Posted by: pdq
Date: March 18, 2020 08:31AM
Quote
Ca Bob
Does anybody have a detailed explanation of how a corona virus test actually works? I've done a few hundred pcr's but each one started with a measure of how much RNA we started with. I wonder how you do this on a human sample -- is it blood, saliva? Each step requires additional time, manipulations, and, if you want to get it right, a measurement of something (typically absorbance at 260 nanometers). The picture that Kevin Drum showed was the result of a reverse-transcription pcr, which is different than qpcr.

I don’t know the deets, but it sounds like you were doing more of a quantitative PCR, and I would guess this is more of a qualitative test - positive or negative. The specimens are swabs, and I think the preferred swab is nasopharyngeal - ie - in the nostrils all the way through the nose to the back (the nasopharynx). But I think some throat swabs are being done as well.
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