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Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: pdq
Date: March 21, 2020 10:25AM
In the NYT. Does a nice, yet unsettling presentation of possible national outcomes as calculated by a group at Columbia U using Census Bureau and NYT data. Several interesting/informative/frightening interactive graphics, including state-by-state guesses of the expected peaks.

This kind of thing is frankly hard to believe:



Really? August 1st? And that’s with “some control measures”? That’s one orange map.

I honestly tend to think (and hope!) this is more worst-case, with my wife and I sitting in our house still sheltering in place, and all restaurants/bars closed, along with many stores and other gathering places, and empty streets. But who the hell knows?

Yikes. I don’t think I can do this until August.
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: davester
Date: March 21, 2020 10:54AM
Time to move to Montana!

I see that they colored it to match the skin color of the person whose inaction is the direct cause of such a bad scenario.



"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: Acer
Date: March 21, 2020 11:02AM
Hmm. If lockdown last to august, there's going to be massive layoffs, myself included. Even the most generous boss can't write checks from an empty account.
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: March 21, 2020 11:03AM
Quote
davester
Time to move to Montana!

Is there a dental floss shortage yet?
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: March 21, 2020 11:07AM
The more drastic the measures, the shorter the time until it burns out. After welding (yes, welding, great for fire safety) stubborn people into their apartments, China has zero new cases among current residents for the last 3 days. The only new cases they are reporting are from the trickle of people returning home from other countries.

Maybe the new economy will be to build hazmat suits for everybody as daily use items (please don't put the factories in China).



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: Blankity Blank
Date: March 21, 2020 11:50AM
Trump lit into Peter Alexander from NBC news the other day, simply for asking Trump what words of reassurance he could give to frightened Americans.

I suspect he’s seeing the same types of projections from his own people, they’re not letting him close his eyes to what may be ahead, and it has him very frightened.

Not for humanitarian reasons, of course. More likely how it may rattle the sandcastle he’s built out of Trump rallies and MAGA hats.
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: S. Pupp
Date: March 21, 2020 01:00PM
Quote
Lux Interior
Is there a dental floss shortage yet?

As long as my wife has long hair, I'm OK there.
I'd be willing to sell you a year's supply of hair-based dental floss for $1,500.
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: pdq
Date: March 21, 2020 02:49PM
Eww.
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Re: Disturbing, comprehensive piece on Covid spread projections
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: March 21, 2020 03:06PM
Quote
pdq
Does a nice, yet unsettling presentation of possible national outcomes as calculated by a group at Columbia U using Census Bureau and NYT data. Several interesting/informative/frightening interactive graphics...

That's very useful and informative. Thanks!!



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