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different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Fritz
Date: March 23, 2020 08:59PM
[www.latimes.com]

no paywall



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If there are spelling issues, please pardon, Owen the cat is sitting on my keyboard.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/23/2020 09:00PM by Fritz.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 23, 2020 09:24PM
Reads a bit like FDR's "We have nothing to fear but fear itself" speech and in that it address' a lot of truths about public perceptions and reactions, it's on target.

I'm not informed enough to address his conclusions about the runtime of this virus but did notice he never mentioned the very real possibility of a second wave. This one may be a unique creature and have no second wave but that would be exceptional, previous pandemics have always seemed to have a second wave.

Maybe someone more informed of pandemic history might chime in.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Speedy
Date: March 23, 2020 11:01PM
Quote
Fritz
[www.latimes.com]

no paywall

Pay wall was there for me.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: vision63
Date: March 23, 2020 11:04PM
Quote
Speedy
Quote
Fritz
[www.latimes.com]

no paywall

Pay wall was there for me.

They know you rich.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Speedy
Date: March 23, 2020 11:07PM
Interesting that the virus is subsiding in China. Perhaps it is mutating into something harmless like what happened to SARS and MERS.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: vision63
Date: March 24, 2020 12:02AM
Quote
RgrF
Reads a bit like FDR's "We have nothing to fear but fear itself" speech and in that it address' a lot of truths about public perceptions and reactions, it's on target.

I'm not informed enough to address his conclusions about the runtime of this virus but did notice he never mentioned the very real possibility of a second wave. This one may be a unique creature and have no second wave but that would be exceptional, previous pandemics have always seemed to have a second wave.

Maybe someone more informed of pandemic history might chime in.

Yeah. I say we just give it the effort China has, which clearly has proven results.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: March 24, 2020 12:12AM
Quote
Speedy
Interesting that the virus is subsiding in China. Perhaps it is mutating into something harmless like what happened to SARS and MERS.

There have been reports that China has just stopped testing/reporting new cases unless it is a citizen coming into the country with symptoms.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: RgrF
Date: March 24, 2020 12:23AM
China acted late, after the fact. They used their dictatorial power to lock down the country and the figures they report are always suspect. Their primary goal was to keep their economy breathing - at what cost in lives no one will ever know.

Here they are getting ready to raid the treasury for personal gain and playing with the idea of an early reopening of trade - at what cost in lives we'll probably never know.

We're beginning to see the fruits of putting people who don't like or respect government, in charge of government. Government has the power to do good for it's people in times like this, unfortunately the levers are in the hands of people who are both indifferent and/or incompetent.

But all's well with the populace as long as he hits the tube and sells the snake oil people so seem to want.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Fritz
Date: March 24, 2020 07:12AM
The post was more about "science".

But ...
China did act late. Don't know that I'd trust their math or Russias or Indias, both of whom, have extremely low counts.


"We're beginning to see the fruits of putting people who don't like or respect government, in charge of government. Government has the power to do good for it's people in times like this, unfortunately the levers are in the hands of people who are both indifferent and/or incompetent."

for sure.
Time will tell.



!#$@@$#!

If there are spelling issues, please pardon, Owen the cat is sitting on my keyboard.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Janit
Date: March 24, 2020 07:37AM
Paywall for anyone who has recently read other articles in latimes.

Can you post the text?
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: d4
Date: March 24, 2020 08:04AM


NO ARTICLE FOR YOU



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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Fritz
Date: March 24, 2020 09:32AM
try removing your cookies from LATimes, then try again.
I'm on FFx 74 and it worked. Same thing has worked on Beezees WashPost.
It's a long article, but if you can't get in, I will try.



!#$@@$#!

If there are spelling issues, please pardon, Owen the cat is sitting on my keyboard.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: pdq
Date: March 24, 2020 09:33AM
Well, yes. This too shall pass.

But we need to learn from this to prepare for the next similarly-contagious, yet much more deadly, new virus.

I’m not aware of one. But it seems inevitable.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Janit
Date: March 24, 2020 10:26AM
Quote
Fritz
try removing your cookies from LATimes, then try again.
I'm on FFx 74 and it worked. Same thing has worked on Beezees WashPost.
It's a long article, but if you can't get in, I will try.

Thanks. Cookie removal worked for me on both Safari and FF.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Fritz
Date: March 24, 2020 10:30AM
woo hoo! I made it to the rant side!



!#$@@$#!

If there are spelling issues, please pardon, Owen the cat is sitting on my keyboard.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Janit
Date: March 24, 2020 11:12AM
Quote
Speedy
Interesting that the virus is subsiding in China. Perhaps it is mutating into something harmless like what happened to SARS and MERS.

I don't believe there is any evidence that SARS or MERS viruses are circulating in a harmless form. It is more likely that the outbreaks were simply well contained. Since the animal reservoirs still exist, it is always possible that new outbreaks may occur. One reason why they were contained was the severity of the disease, which meant that everyone who caught it got sick very quickly, and there were no silent carriers. It's the silent carriers that account for the explosive spread of Covid-19.

The long term epidemiology of Covid-19 may also be different because of this mixed level of pathology among infected people.

This dramatic onset and possible early peaking of Covid-19 also makes me wonder what other factors are involved in the epidemiological pattern.

Factors other than age or state of health may also influence severity of Covid-19 disease. For example, if the cell surface protein that the virus binds to has any variability in the population, then some people may be less susceptible to infection, or may experience milder disease because of it.

In such a scenario, the cases we are seeing now would be predominantly in people whose cell surface proteins bind the virus most strongly. Once the virus burns through them, the remaining people may experience less extreme symptoms or no symptoms at all.

Or there may be other reasons for the pattern Levitt sees. This work warrants serious exploration.

Therefore, it is still wise to isolate everyone now, and constantly reevaluate the state of the disease spread as well as our understanding of the virus from week to week and from month to month.

In the case of a new virus, there is very little certainty, and a need for constant vigilance.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/24/2020 11:14AM by Janit.
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: rexs
Date: March 25, 2020 01:00AM
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’
Health workers
A health worker checks a patient’s temperature at a COVID-19 screening station at Watts Health Center.(Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)
By JOE MOZINGOSTAFF WRITER
MARCH 23, 20209:13 PM
Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”


Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.

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Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. In his view, the fact that new cases were being identified at a slower rate was more telling than the number of new cases itself. It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted.

Think of the outbreak as a car racing down an open highway, he said. Although the car is still gaining speed, it’s not accelerating as rapidly as before.

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“This suggests that the rate of increase in the number of deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.

Workers disinfect equipment in coronavirus ward
Hospital equipment is disinfected.(Getty Images)
Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.

This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.


Now Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even those that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.

He analyzed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 newcases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery” in many of them. He’s not focusing on the total number ofcases in a country, but on the number of new cases identified every day — and, especially, on the change in that number from one day to the next.

“Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth.”


In South Korea, for example, newly confirmed cases are being added to the country’s total each day, but the daily tally has dropped in recent weeks, remaining below 200. That suggests the outbreak there may be winding down.

In Iran, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases per day remained relatively flat last week, going from 1,053 last Monday to 1,028 on Sunday. Although that’s still a lot of new cases, Levitt said, the pattern suggests the outbreak there “is past the halfway mark.”


Italy, on the other hand, looks like it’s still on the upswing. In that country, the number of newly confirmed cases increased on most days this past week.


In places that have managed to recover from an initial outbreak, officials must still contend with the fact that the coronavirus may return. China is now fighting to stop new waves of infection coming in from places where the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries are bound to face the same problem.

Levitt acknowledges that his figures are messy and that the official case counts in many areas are too low because testing is spotty. But even with incomplete data, “a consistent decline means there’s some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers,” he said.

In other words, as long as the reasons for the inaccurate case counts remain the same, it’s still useful to compare them from one day to the next.

The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said, since it follows the same basic trends as the new confirmed cases. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected, and eight died.

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This unintended experiment in coronavirus spread will help researchers estimate the number of fatalities that would occur in a fully infected population, Levitt said. For instance, the Diamond Princess data allowed him to estimate that being exposed to the new coronavirus doubles a person’s risk of dying in the next two months. Most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, so that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said the analysis was thought-provoking, if nothing else.

“Time will tell if Levitt’s predictions are correct,” Reich said. “I do think that having a wide diversity of experts bringing their perspectives to the table will help decision-makers navigate the very tricky decisions they will be facing in the upcoming weeks and months.”

Levitt said he’s in sync with those calling for strong measures to fight the outbreak. The social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it, and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies,” he said.

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Getting vaccinated against the flu is important, too, because a coronavirus outbreak that strikes in the middle of a flu epidemic is much more likely to overwhelm hospitals and increases the odds that the coronavirus goes undetected. This was probably a factor in Italy, a country with a strong anti-vaccine movement, he said.

But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

Levitt fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down.

The virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it, Levitt said. That’s what happened in South Korea last month, when it ripped through a closed-off cult that refused to report the illness.

“People need to be considered heroes for announcing they have this virus,” he said.

Temperature screening in China
A guard holds a thermal gun to check the body temperature of visitors at the entrance of a restaurant area in China.(Hector Retamal / AFP-Getty Images)
The goal needs to be better early detection — not just through testing but perhaps with body-temperature surveillance, which China is implementing — and immediate social isolation.

While the COVID-19 fatality rate appears to be significantly higher than that of the flu, Levitt says it is, quite simply put, “not the end of the world.”

“The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” he said.

Dr. Loren Miller, a physician and infectious diseases researcher at the Lundquist Institute for Biomedical Innovation at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, said it’s premature to draw any conclusions — either rosy or bleak — about the course the pandemic will take.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” he said. “In China they nipped it in the bud in the nick of time. In the U.S. we might have, or we might not have. We just don’t know.”
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Re: different pov from a Nobeler
Posted by: Fritz
Date: March 25, 2020 07:35AM
dunno where, but just heard from a friend of a ...
someone returned from down under a few days ago and was asked if they had any symptoms by TSA. they said no, and in they came.
yeow ....
supersize that curve



!#$@@$#!

If there are spelling issues, please pardon, Owen the cat is sitting on my keyboard.
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