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The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 29, 2020 10:48AM
Latest ABC/WaPo national poll shows Biden only 2 points ahead, essentially a tie.

Same polling company on Friday showed Trump having his first positive approval poll, with 48% approve and 46% disapprove.

Worried? I'm always worried about this but it looks a bit worse at the moment.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: sekker
Date: March 29, 2020 10:50AM
It's a national emergency bump.

Other presidents, this would be a 30 point bump.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: PeterB
Date: March 29, 2020 10:59AM
Quote
sekker
It's a national emergency bump.

Other presidents, this would be a 30 point bump.

Bingo. [www.washingtonpost.com]

... bottom line, the longer this goes on (and it doesn't look like it's going to end anytime soon), the worse it is for Trump.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 29, 2020 10:59AM
Quote
sekker
It's a national emergency bump.

Other presidents, this would be a 30 point bump.

I certainly agree. George W Bush had a 90% approval rating at some point after 9/11/.
He only needs a very small bump to win in November.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: btfc
Date: March 29, 2020 11:04AM
And Biden, being old school, isn’t going after Trump in the midst of the crisis. When it starts to wane, expect that to change.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: PeterB
Date: March 29, 2020 11:10AM
Quote
btfc
And Biden, being old school, isn’t going after Trump in the midst of the crisis. When it starts to wane, expect that to change.

Biden has to be careful about his criticisms; timing is everything, and he's biding (pardon the pun) his time. When things really go south, he might be more vocal... pointing out all the bungling, but again he has to be careful, because it could appear that he's attacking someone who did the best he could under the circumstances. He's essentially got to wait until that point when the bungling becomes SO obvious that it simply can't be denied any longer.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: March 29, 2020 11:19AM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
btfc
And Biden, being old school, isn’t going after Trump in the midst of the crisis. When it starts to wane, expect that to change.

Biden has to be careful about his criticisms; timing is everything, and he's biding (pardon the pun) his time. When things really go south, he might be more vocal... pointing out all the bungling, but again he has to be careful, because it could appear that he's attacking someone who did the best he could under the circumstances. He's essentially got to wait until that point when the bungling becomes SO obvious that it simply can't be denied any longer.

Yes. I see many impetuous posts from people lighting Biden up over this, but they don't understand psychology well enough. The person delivering bad news and scolding others, esp in times of crisis, runs a high risk of being seen as negative. Cuomo is the exception here, as he has a state to run and has very specific details of failings related to capacity. He's also a New Yorker and knows how to command an audience, something at which Biden is not good.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 11:20AM by mrbigstuff.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 29, 2020 11:31AM
I watched Biden's CNN town hall a few nights ago and I thought he did an excellent job balancing criticism of the administration's pandemic response with a counter message of what he would do, and what he's doing now. He also communicates empathy and compassion in ways that our current president cannot or does not.

That's all good, not many people are paying attention to it though.

It's not really about what Biden does, IMO, it's about whether Trump can convince a few hundred thousand people that he has done a good enough job getting us through one of the country's most serious crises. I think the numbers currently show he can do that.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: PeterB
Date: March 29, 2020 12:12PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
It's not really about what Biden does, IMO, it's about whether Trump can convince a few hundred thousand people that he has done a good enough job getting us through one of the country's most serious crises. I think the numbers currently show he can do that.

Right, but those numbers could change on a dime, particularly if this gets much worse and it becomes patently obvious that he bungled (think Katrina images on network news when Bush Jr. was saying "heckuva job").




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: sekker
Date: March 29, 2020 01:13PM
US response to this pandemic is the worst in the world (so far, though Russia is now coming to terms with its denial).

No way this ends well for us.

Whether the public understands is another story.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 01:13PM by sekker.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 29, 2020 01:24PM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Lemon Drop
It's not really about what Biden does, IMO, it's about whether Trump can convince a few hundred thousand people that he has done a good enough job getting us through one of the country's most serious crises. I think the numbers currently show he can do that.

Right, but those numbers could change on a dime, particularly if this gets much worse and it becomes patently obvious that he bungled (think Katrina images on network news when Bush Jr. was saying "heckuva job").

Agree, but I believe this could also happen: Because such extreme doomsday scenarios were put forward, particularly with number of deaths, Trump has a good chance of coming out looking like he did better than expected. And that won't be because of him but despite him - but he'll have the data to make his case to just enough marginally engaged people.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: March 29, 2020 02:37PM
Trump's numbers are up solely based on his non-negative (idiotic, but non-negative) rants. That's it. People hoping for good news, and someone to tell it to them.

Once things do go south that could change quickly, as PeterB notes. I will say that if the results are not horrific, though, he may come out of this virtually unchanged, and possibly up a bit. "See, it wasn't _that_ bad!"
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: March 29, 2020 07:55PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
sekker
It's a national emergency bump.

Other presidents, this would be a 30 point bump.

I certainly agree. George W Bush had a 90% approval rating at some point after 9/11/.
He only needs a very small bump to win in November.

And his dad seemed a shoe-in for re-election after beating Iraq out of Kuwait.

But the economy had other ideas by election day.
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Re: The Trump Bump accelerates
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: March 30, 2020 10:05AM
Quote
Lux Interior
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
sekker
It's a national emergency bump.

Other presidents, this would be a 30 point bump.

I certainly agree. George W Bush had a 90% approval rating at some point after 9/11/.
He only needs a very small bump to win in November.

And his dad seemed a shoe-in for re-election after beating Iraq out of Kuwait.

But the economy had other ideas by election day.

His Dad's opponent was also young and inspiring and different, hopey changey kind of guy.
We'll be in a deep recession in November, no doubt about that. Trump just defies all the playbooks.
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