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NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: Ted King
Date: April 02, 2020 03:15PM
Again, via Kevin Drum:

[www.nytimes.com]



Quote

Stay-at-home orders have nearly halted travel for most Americans, but people in Florida, the Southeast and other places that waited to enact such orders have continued to travel widely, potentially exposing more people as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates, according to an analysis of cellphone location data by The New York Times.

The divide in travel patterns, based on anonymous cellphone data from 15 million people, suggests that Americans in wide swaths of the West, Northeast and Midwest have complied with orders from state and local officials to stay home. Disease experts who reviewed the results say those reductions in travel — to less than a mile a day, on average, from about five miles — may be enough to sharply curb the spread of the coronavirus in those regions, at least for now.

“That’s huge,” said Aaron A. King, a University of Michigan professor who studies the ecology of infectious disease. “By any measure this is a massive change in behavior, and if we can make a similar reduction in the number of contacts we make, every indication is that we can defeat this epidemic.”

But not everybody has been staying home.

More maps, graphs and explanation at the NY Times link above.
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: Acer
Date: April 02, 2020 03:25PM
Wow, Montana! Or is there something skewing those sparsely populated areas?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/02/2020 03:26PM by Acer.
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: pdq
Date: April 02, 2020 03:41PM
Quote
Acer
Wow, Montana! Or is there something skewing those sparsely populated areas?

Yeah, that's possible - here's the coverage map for, say, Boost Mobile:



No coverage, they don't know where you're going...
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: Acer
Date: April 02, 2020 03:56PM
Quote
pdq
Quote
Acer
Wow, Montana! Or is there something skewing those sparsely populated areas?

Yeah, that's possible - here's the coverage map for, say, Boost Mobile:



No coverage, they don't know where you're going...

That may be it. In Montana, you have to drive thirty miles just to take the trash to the curb.
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: April 02, 2020 04:12PM
I expect there is also a correlation with those who believed that "It's all a lot of Librul fake news". Despite people dying right and left, I still hear this from time to time.
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: hal
Date: April 02, 2020 05:18PM
I saw a tweet today pointing out that USA and S Korea had the first case on the same day, but Korea took immediate action and the US did not.

Stolen from twitter: As a reminder, ten million Americans lost their jobs in March. South Korea, which recorded its first COVID case the same day the US did, handled this pandemic without an economic shutdown because its government took the virus seriously from day one. This didn’t have to happen.

The difference is striking:

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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: Mr Downtown
Date: April 03, 2020 08:49AM
Most of those red counties sprinkled across the West, I wonder if there's more than one cell tower in the whole county. Any time a call is handed off to the next cell, it's going to show up in the data as a shift of 10 or 20 miles.
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Re: NYTimes: "Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread"
Posted by: Ted King
Date: April 03, 2020 09:20AM
Quote
Mr Downtown
Most of those red counties sprinkled across the West, I wonder if there's more than one cell tower in the whole county. Any time a call is handed off to the next cell, it's going to show up in the data as a shift of 10 or 20 miles.

Yeah, I don't know much about the methodology used here but it seems likely that it probably has low resolution in rural areas and likely gives only a fuzzy look even in denser populated areas. But the red in the South probably does reflect lesser social distancing there in a general sense.
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