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Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 25, 2020 10:28PM
Follow up from May 15: [forums.macresource.com]

[www.cnbc.com]

“Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Some reinfections, or reactivations, of the coronavirus have been reported.

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”

“Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes and we are investigating the cause of that,” he said.”



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Rolando
Date: April 25, 2020 11:03PM
[www.businessinsider.com]

Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.

Sweden — which has yet to order any lockdown amid the novel coronavirus pandemic — 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far.
The virus has been nearly 10 times as deadly as in Sweden than in other Nordic countries.
Norway, which has half as many people as Sweden, has seen 7,191 cases and 182 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 141 deaths.




San Antonio, TX (in the old city)


"All that is required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
“Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." - Eli Weisel

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

"I don’t want to see religious bigotry in any form. It would disturb me if there was a wedding between the religious fundamentalists and the political right. The hard right has no interest in religion except to manipulate it." - Billy Graham 1981

"Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise" - Barry Goldwater
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: deckeda
Date: April 25, 2020 11:05PM
It’s easier to get herd immunity by thinning it first.
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: btfc
Date: April 25, 2020 11:11PM
" 'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says"

[www.npr.org]
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Acer
Date: April 25, 2020 11:16PM
Lockdown isn't about stopping the disease. It's about managing the resources to treat it, and to give medical researchers time to develop the best treatments for symptoms in the short term and a vaccine in the long term. What price will Sweden pay for moving quickly to herd immunity?
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Rolando
Date: April 25, 2020 11:58PM
Quote
Acer
What price will Sweden pay for moving quickly to herd immunity?

So far, about 4 times per capita than Finland!



San Antonio, TX (in the old city)


"All that is required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
“Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." - Eli Weisel

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

"I don’t want to see religious bigotry in any form. It would disturb me if there was a wedding between the religious fundamentalists and the political right. The hard right has no interest in religion except to manipulate it." - Billy Graham 1981

"Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise" - Barry Goldwater
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: April 26, 2020 09:49AM
American epidemiologists are saying we do not under any circumstance want to achieve "herd immunity" through natural transmission of this disease. We want it through vaccination. It's not 1918, we don't need to do that.

And 60% is a very long way off from 20%, in terms of prevalence. That claim is ridiculous and based on the updated article (linked in the OP) appears to have been pulled back.

Sweden has not protected their elderly population, with half of their deaths in nursing homes, and they have not tested well. They have no idea how many are infected.

I'll take Germany instead.
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: RgrF
Date: April 26, 2020 10:35AM
I think LD's correct beside it's waaaay too early to start with speculation about results. Singapore looked to be on a path until it wasn't. Will there be a second wave, if so will it replicate the even worse second wave of the 1918 pandemic?

It might be nice to have an answer to these questions before doing a postmortem on this thing.
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Ted King
Date: April 26, 2020 11:22AM
Quote
btfc
" 'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says"

[www.npr.org]

Hopefully over time we will find that a lot of people develop some kind of immunity after infection, but without evidence that that is the case, making herd immunity your main strategy for dealing with the virus seems foolish.
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: JoeH
Date: April 26, 2020 03:59PM
Some "immunity" gained from exposure to a virus is only partial. You can still get the disease again, just not quite as bad. So, instead of being fatal, just nearly fatal...
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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: AllGold
Date: April 26, 2020 05:19PM
Wow! I see the word "might" a lot in those quotes.



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Re: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 28, 2020 04:43AM
Quote

It might be nice to have an answer to these questions before doing a postmortem on this thing.

Add this to the postmortem:

1. One week before Trump’s inauguration, officials briefed Trump on a likely viral pandemic.

2. In 2017, Trump cut the Federal health department by nearly 18%.

3. Trump was briefed on a 69-page NSC report in 2017 for dealing with a pandemic, “Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents”.

4. In 2018 Trump fired the NSC pandemic preparedness team and the global health security team.

5. Jan. 2019, the DNI released the “worldwide threat assessment of the intelligence community report” which outlined a pandemic threat for Human Security and Global Health for the US.

6. In 2019, Trump placed large tariffs on Chinese imports of medical supplies that would be needed to fight a pandemic

7. In 2019 a joint CDC/HHS exercise showed large problems with pandemic preparedness.

8. Azar and Tim Morrison, at the BioDefense Summit in April 2019 briefed Trump about the threat of a pandemic

9. FEMA released “The 2019 The National Treat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment” in July that predicted that a nationwide pandemic would result in a shortage of medical supplies, hospitals would be overwhelmed and the economy would shut down.

10. Sept. 2019, Trump cut the Pandemic Early Warning System (PREDICT) to save 200 million dollars.

11. In late 2019 the W.H.O. transmitted real-time information about the Covid-19 discovery and spread in China to Trump.

12. Trump is stalling the release of the 2020 Intel report warning that the U.S. isn’t ready for a global pandemic.

13. Nov. 2019 the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) analysts reported that the upcoming possible pandemic “could be a cataclysmic event.”

14. Dec. 2019-Feb 2020 NCMI briefed the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the WH several times.

15. Trump ended a $200M program of US scientists working in the Wuhan lab USAID’s Predict Program.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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