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Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 21, 2020 09:11AM
FWIW, there’s a new study that says, yeah, actions matter in these pandemics (especially early on, when you might be tempted to downplay the threat and call it a “Democratic hoax”):

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If the US had encouraged people to stay home and had put social distancing policies in place just a week earlier, more than half the number of deaths and infections could possibly have been prevented, according to new research from Columbia University.

Had the US locked the country down two weeks earlier, 84% of deaths and 82% of cases could have been averted, said the research team led by epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman.

smiley-shocked003

I think this kind of thing is a bit speculative, but it certainly would have been better if we would have had a leader who believed science over his own gut, and didn’t feel he had a special flair and innate ability for medical matters, when it was quite the opposite.

But ultimately, who cares? After all, Americans would rather die (or, y’know, have other people die) than do anything that might impact the glorious leader’s economy, even temporarily.
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: May 21, 2020 10:08AM
Models are always speculative. But there are also cases in point.. nations that DID aggressively lock down, and are seeing MUCH lower death counts per population. Needless to say, testing availability and reported number integrity are a HUGE variable. With governments controlling information we may never know accurately. For example, I fully expect the US death count to be higher. And I also expect the China death rate to be higher as well. 0.33 ? I totally doubt it, although their viral control methods were staggeringly aggressive, once the reality was well known.

Example:
US deaths/100K population is at 28.56
NZ deaths/100K population is at 0.43
[coronavirus.jhu.edu]
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 21, 2020 10:14AM
Still way too soon to speculate anything, just don't!
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 21, 2020 10:24AM
Bank of America speculates on the economy:

Quote

“An earlier reopening has prompted health experts to increase estimates for the number of COVID cases, which will slow the recovery,” the firm writes. “We have also become increasingly concerned about solvency issues and a sticky-high unemployment rate. We now think it will take until the end of 2022, or later, to return to the pre-COVID level of GDP.”

Kind of ironic that the folks who would rather die (or, like I said, have other people die) to save the economy may actually slow down recovery.

But honestly, IMHO the Repubs are (understandably) nervous, watching the Econ numbers and hoping they will be looking better by November. After that, the need will be less pressing.
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 21, 2020 10:45AM
Two additional items that I'd add here instead of starting yet another Covid thread. This scientist thinks a vaccine may not be so easy:

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While a COVID-19 vaccine could be developed, he said, “I wouldn’t count on it.”

Vaccines developed previously for other types of coronavirus had failed to protect mucous membranes in the nose where the virus typically enters the body, he said.

What does he recommend?

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...the virus can be controlled by identifying infections, finding people who have been exposed and isolating them, he said. He urged people to wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a distance.

He said China and some other Asian countries used that strategy successfully, while the United States and other countries did not do enough to “forcibly isolate” all who were exposed to the virus.

Forcibly isolate? Tell that to Bernie! We can't get people to wear a mask in Costco!
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 21, 2020 12:28PM
A scientific model isn’t a guess simply because it’s not fact. It’s why considering known data can show the “what if.”

Another thing that’s known is that given our nation’s infection rate, our response has been really awful ... so much so that Monday morning quarterbacking, remains valid criticism. I mean, to the extent politicians think infections are a bad thing (actions/behaviors seem to indicate otherwise in many cases.)
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 21, 2020 12:35PM
Stop with the 'What if', stick with what's so!
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 21, 2020 03:01PM
Quote
RgrF
Stop with the 'What if', stick with what's so!

Oh, OK. Give me the exact number of flu infections so that I can consider them against the exact number of C-19 infections when considering various policy implications.

Until then ... there are models, sorry.
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Re: Coulda woulda shoulda
Posted by: anonymouse1
Date: May 21, 2020 11:59PM
Wrong thread



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 12:00AM by anonymouse1.
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