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So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 23, 2020 06:50PM
Seeing scenes like this:



Story here: [www.houstonchronicle.com]

Edit: another, newer story here, which has video -- so really gives a better idea of what's going on: [www.click2houston.com]

... few if any masks, little in the way of social distancing, etc. ...

... if we assume that there could be a 4-7 day asymptomatic period, then 1-2 weeks for someone to develop symptoms, does that put us into mid-late June, and then we get into the 4th of July weekend to repeat the whole thing over again? patriot smiley facepalm




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/23/2020 07:00PM by PeterB.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: May 23, 2020 07:33PM
We're seeing high numbers now and the governors are too chicken to reinstitute lock-downs. Instead, they're mostly playing cover-up with the numbers.

My guess is that the slope is going to go up for a long time to come and it's going to look far worse in retrospect when the real numbers start trickling out.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/23/2020 07:33PM by Sarcany.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 23, 2020 08:24PM
Houston is the first major city to allow eviction and mortgage moratoriums to lapse. The push to open up is irreversible, the eventual toll, unknowable.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: $tevie
Date: May 23, 2020 08:41PM
I'm expecting a big wave from the folks who crowded the boardwalk in Ocean City, MD, today. One guy had a baby in that mess.
[baltimore.cbslocal.com]



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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: vision63
Date: May 23, 2020 09:34PM
I hope we're all wrong and Covid 19 goes away. I'd be willing to concede on that point. I pray to be wrong about this. My cousin Hezzie is the latest casualty amongst my peoples.

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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: $tevie
Date: May 23, 2020 10:00PM
I'm so sorry for your loss, vision. Please accept my condolences.



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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: May 23, 2020 10:02PM
.....peak-a-boo.....2nd wave will come.......so far the crowds are huge and no social distancing or masks in many cases....



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: vision63
Date: May 23, 2020 10:32PM
Quote
$tevie
I'm so sorry for your loss, vision. Please accept my condolences.

He was a cool guy. I wasn't too close to him. We both liked sports, so that was our thing.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: May 23, 2020 11:09PM
There will be an upward spike in deaths in 3 weeks but the peak won't be then. The peak could be in six weeks, assuming people go back to closing down in three weeks. Looking at super-spreaders in church situations, we could be seeing peaks at 30 times the current numbers.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 24, 2020 12:24AM
...all assuming the numbers reported aren't distorted by politics of the area.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: Janit
Date: May 24, 2020 03:08AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
There will be an upward spike in deaths in 3 weeks but the peak won't be then. The peak could be in six weeks, assuming people go back to closing down in three weeks. Looking at super-spreaders in church situations, we could be seeing peaks at 30 times the current numbers.

This. In three weeks it will be high enough that it can't be ignored, but it will keep rising and rising and rising, until someone decides to act.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 24, 2020 03:19AM
They've already decided to act. Once the toll becomes something that cant be hidden we'll be doing some new testing of our nuclear arsenal. Something that hasn't been done in a half century.

Whatever it takes to scare people and win an election, they will do!
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 24, 2020 07:04AM
I think it will peak after schools open again, both K-12 and colleges. It’ll be bad.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 24, 2020 09:39AM
Speedy’s right. The natural effect of summer is to get folks outside and away from enclosed spaces. The reopening fervor will likely offset and prevent much of the decrease we would see if more protective measures were kept in place, with regional outbreaks superimposed due to stupidity.

The real danger will probably return in the fall/winter, when our glorious leader intends, as stated, to do nothing when the rate turn clearly up again.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: May 24, 2020 02:10PM
There is some argument that closing the schools isn't all that effective or important in stemming the spread of the virus. This water park story mentions the owner limiting the crowd to 16 percent of the usual maximum. It's the crowded bars, restaurants, and concerts that concern me.

The death toll will continue to grow for multiple cycles of viral spread, so figure six to eight weeks to see the ultimate toll, just as it took since the mid-March closings to the present day.

Also, look at Kevin Drum's graphs showing how the American death totals aren't dropping like a rock, but only slowly descending. We will be at an official (surely underestimated) total of 100,000 in a week, and it will continue to grow. If there is a new spike, then we can expect the death total to exceed 150K by the fall.

[www.motherjones.com]
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: JoeH
Date: May 24, 2020 03:48PM
Another set of graphics that go into more detail are the ones by the NY Times - [www.nytimes.com]. There is a national summary, and you can look at stats for individual states and counties. You can see some of those states which started opening things up a few weeks ago trending upwards again for both cases and deaths.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: testcase
Date: May 26, 2020 11:49AM
YES


The "second wave" has already started.


One possible "bright spot": DEATH "fixes" stupid. facepalm
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 26, 2020 12:28PM
One possible "bright spot": DEATH "fixes" stupid.

Only if that were true; the undead will go on being as dumb as their recently departed friends and relatives were. There is simply no cure for stupid.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/26/2020 12:29PM by RgrF.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 26, 2020 01:28PM
Quote
testcase
YES


The "second wave" has already started.


One possible "bright spot": DEATH "fixes" stupid. facepalm

I've said it before, I'll say it again -- two things:

1) In a certain way, this may be social Darwinism at work. If the stupid people (cough, Trumpsters, cough) are the ones to venture out and infect each other, that might directly result in a change in leadership come November. Unfortunately, their behavior also affects all of the rest of us, as they use up valuable PPE, hospital beds and supplies, respirators, etc.

2) Apparently, being an introvert (as I am) is a survival trait.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/26/2020 01:29PM by PeterB.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 26, 2020 03:09PM
Quote
PeterB
I've said it before, I'll say it again -- two things:

1) In a certain way, this may be social Darwinism at work. If the stupid people (cough, Trumpsters, cough) are the ones to venture out and infect each other, that might directly result in a change in leadership come November. Unfortunately, their behavior also affects all of the rest of us, as they use up valuable PPE, hospital beds and supplies, respirators, etc.

Your caveat here should be your main point - it's not necessarily the "stupid people" who are likely to die as a result of covid-19 infection. Some will, yes, but it's much more likely that they will infect: vulnerable friends and family; workers at stores, businesses, and offices who are captive to enclosed spaces; and co-workers, clients, customers, etc. while they are asymptomatic but highly contagious.

Unfortunately, those people are disproportionately people of color, poor people, and immigrants who have been excluded from our government's meager rescue efforts to date. In a lot of places, that means voters and non-citizen residents who would have supported change, not reelection.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/26/2020 03:10PM by rjmacs.
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Re: So... are we going to see another peak in about 2-3 weeks?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 26, 2020 03:40PM
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
PeterB
I've said it before, I'll say it again -- two things:

1) In a certain way, this may be social Darwinism at work. If the stupid people (cough, Trumpsters, cough) are the ones to venture out and infect each other, that might directly result in a change in leadership come November. Unfortunately, their behavior also affects all of the rest of us, as they use up valuable PPE, hospital beds and supplies, respirators, etc.

Your caveat here should be your main point - it's not necessarily the "stupid people" who are likely to die as a result of covid-19 infection. Some will, yes, but it's much more likely that they will infect: vulnerable friends and family; workers at stores, businesses, and offices who are captive to enclosed spaces; and co-workers, clients, customers, etc. while they are asymptomatic but highly contagious.

Unfortunately, those people are disproportionately people of color, poor people, and immigrants who have been excluded from our government's meager rescue efforts to date. In a lot of places, that means voters and non-citizen residents who would have supported change, not reelection.

Hopefully, the stupid people won't necessarily infect all the others you mentioned, because the stupid people and the other people (let's call them the "non-stupid people") don't generally interact (or don't want to interact) with each other as much as you're suggesting. In fact, sometimes the stupid people will even complain, if they are being served by the non-stupid people: [www.usatoday.com]




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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