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100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: May 27, 2020 06:23PM
There have been 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months.


Even President Bashar al-Assad took eleven years to roll up 500,000 corpses in Syria. Just imagine what Murdering Don is going to accomplish in the next 8 months.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: samintx
Date: May 27, 2020 11:01PM
Notice how 45 can come out with consoling words when the casualty is black and it looks like a big news story? For the over 100,000 covid deceased he plays golf and........? What????

Looking for the black vote is the only reason for words for Floyd in this blatant homicide.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 28, 2020 12:18AM
...and just as predicted:

Quote
You know who

For all of the political hacks out there, if I hadn’t done my job well, & early, we would have lost 1 1/2 to 2 Million People, as opposed to the 100,000 plus that looks like will be the number. That’s 15 to 20 times more than we will lose. I shut down entry from China very early!

Twitteresque fact check: Not that early - some 40 countries did so before us. And most of the US outbreak appears to have come from Europe, anyway.

But let’s compare, shall we? From EU CDC data (a great site, BTW);



In sum, to date, our rate of Covid deaths per million population is around 8-10x higher than the overall world’s rate so far, and much, much, much higher than China’s or South Korea’s. But maybe they’re not reporting it straight. How about Canada? Maybe 80% higher than them. Our rate is a quarter less than Sweden’s (where they inexplicably but intentionally decided to do mostly nothing), but waaay higher than Norway, their neighbor that took a more aggressive approach. Italy and the UK got hit hard, the first maybe bad luck, the second because of a Conservative-inspired early denial and plan to tough-it-out. And Brazil, with Mini-Me-Trump Bolsonaro, is coming up fast now.

But the bottom line is that if anyone predicted 1.5 million US deaths, it was really an early shot-in-the-dark, equating to a rate of 4500 per million, or 10x what anyone in the world has seen, including countries like Sweden, who consciously did nothing (and are paying for it.) We aren’t the worst, but we’re pretty close to it; and in total deaths, we’re number 1 with a bullet.

But we’re not through this yet, so maybe if Trump has his way and ignores the rebound this fall, we’ll eventually get to his straw man numbers anyway.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 28, 2020 12:27AM


(More here.)
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: sekker
Date: May 28, 2020 12:07PM
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 28, 2020 12:10PM
Quote
sekker
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.

Managed to do what, exactly? Get a ton of people infected and have rate spikes?



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: sekker
Date: May 28, 2020 12:14PM
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rjmacs
Quote
sekker
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.

Managed to do what, exactly? Get a ton of people infected and have rate spikes?

Sweden appears to have a sustainable path to herd immunity without swamping their healthcare system.

That is NOT an endorsement of their end-goal, just a statement of the plan.

However, I live in a state (MN) where the head of public health research center (and key advisor to our governor) keeps assuming our state's COVID end-point is likely herd immunity, not a vaccine.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 28, 2020 12:17PM
Quote
sekker
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
sekker
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.

Managed to do what, exactly? Get a ton of people infected and have rate spikes?

Sweden appears to have a sustainable path to herd immunity without swamping their healthcare system.

Do they though?

Because I'm hearing otherwise.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/28/2020 12:18PM by rjmacs.
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Re: How much worse will it get
Posted by: John Q. Public
Date: May 28, 2020 12:28PM
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Re: How much worse will it get
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 28, 2020 12:32PM
And 5,865 is what % of the overall population again?



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: How much worse will it get
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: May 28, 2020 01:41PM
Quote
rjmacs
And 5,865 is what % of the overall population again?

It is about 3% of El Dorado county. The results imply 1.4% of the population has tested positive. Estimated population is 192,000, so there could be as many as 2650 infected.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: sekker
Date: May 28, 2020 04:40PM
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rjmacs
Quote
sekker
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
sekker
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.

Managed to do what, exactly? Get a ton of people infected and have rate spikes?

Sweden appears to have a sustainable path to herd immunity without swamping their healthcare system.

Do they though?

Because I'm hearing otherwise.

Your link is more than a month old, the sky did not fall - yet.

I have friends and colleagues in Sweden. They are deeply worried (as am I). Will they keep their current simmer, or will they have a full-blown outbreak? I sure wish they would not risk it.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 28, 2020 04:42PM
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sekker
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
sekker
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
sekker
pdq, Sweden decided they wanted an economically sustainable approach with herd immunity the goal.

They seem to have managed to do so without swamping their hospitals.

Managed to do what, exactly? Get a ton of people infected and have rate spikes?

Sweden appears to have a sustainable path to herd immunity without swamping their healthcare system.

Do they though?

Because I'm hearing otherwise.

Your link is more than a month old, the sky did not fall - yet.

I have friends and colleagues in Sweden. They are deeply worried (as am I). Will they keep their current simmer, or will they have a full-blown outbreak? I sure wish they would not risk it.

I think I must have missed your link to more recent evidence.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: hal
Date: May 28, 2020 05:19PM
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: May 29, 2020 12:02PM
Come on, hal - your professor taught you better than that.

Citation: New York Times, May 28, 2020.





rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: JoeH
Date: May 29, 2020 04:10PM
And of course this herd immunity all hangs on the assumption that presence of antibodies equal immunity. That seems to still be an open question in relation to COVID-19 and some of the other members of the coronavirus family.
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Re: 100,000 virus deaths in 3 months- a vast slaughter
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: May 29, 2020 05:30PM
Yeah. You can have antibodies to some other milder form of a coronavirus, and some of the antibody tests will show positive. That's why the public health people are warning people not become overconfident about immunity just because they got a positive antibody test. I've seen a lot of press accounts suggesting that perhaps half of the positives are false positives. We need better data.
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