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How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: Speedy
Date: August 08, 2020 04:17AM
Figure it out for yourself:

[www.washingtonpost.com]

(Spoiler alert: Not good.)



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/08/2020 10:17AM by Speedy.
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: deckeda
Date: August 08, 2020 08:53AM
Great graphics, simplifies the challenge. I’m convinced a lot of people look at the possible numbers of death and think, OK but that’s alright. It’s just a mirror of their overall ideology.
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 08, 2020 05:54PM
Deaths to reach herd immunity: 2.95 million

This is 19 times the current admitted number of deaths (I think the actual number is currently closer to 200,000).

300,000 Deaths By December? 9 Takeaways From The Newest COVID-19 Projections
www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/06/900000671/300-000-deaths-by-december-9-takeaways-of-the-newest-covid-19-projections



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/08/2020 05:56PM by Filliam H. Muffman.
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: August 08, 2020 06:55PM
Bill Gates, who not only prognosticated this pandemic but has since become a right-wing meme, has postulated that it will take until the end of next year to bring this under some semblance of control in first world countries - the rest of the world, a year or two longer.
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 08, 2020 09:24PM
Quote
RgrF
Bill Gates, who not only prognosticated this pandemic but has since become a right-wing meme, has postulated that it will take until the end of next year to bring this under some semblance of control in first world countries - the rest of the world, a year or two longer.

So you are saying two years for the US...



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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: August 09, 2020 01:27AM
Maybe 3
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 09, 2020 09:52AM
Well, NYC’s experience is worth some optimism. I keep thinking that maybe they’ve reached herd immunity somehow, or that most all of the people that were destined to have bad cases of Covid (because of their preexisting conditions, or their genes, or whatever) have had it.

But then I think that’s probably not realistic.

So, then I think maybe NYC has confronted the beast, suffered greatly, but largely now held it at bay - perhaps a model for the rest of the US to follow, with hope for the future.

And then I see kids crowded together in hallways without masks. And Sturgis.

We’re still screwed. At least for the foreseeable future
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: JoeH
Date: August 09, 2020 12:00PM
Quote

... I keep thinking that maybe they’ve reached herd immunity somehow...

Unrealistic to think that, even places as hard hit as NYC or the Boston metropolitan area were have not reached anywhere near the infection rate to reach herd immunity levels. They just successfully beat it down enough and instilled (maybe) enough social distancing and PPE that the current rates of infection are relatively low. Basically instead of an individual maybe running into 10 persons a day who might pass on the virus, they might run into 1 or 2 a day. Conversely, an individual with a current infection, symptomatic or not, will expose it to fewer.
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: August 09, 2020 04:47PM
....never.....herd.......of this......



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: How is herd immunity working out?
Posted by: testcase
Date: August 09, 2020 07:32PM
Yesterday's Apple News had a link (I believe it was to an article in the Atlantic) stating that Covid19 will NEVER go away. facepalm
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