Interesting poll, WaPo-ABC News

[Ca Bob]

It's not all that complicated. In 2008 the Democrats were running against each other but in the context of centrist politics. In other words, they treated the Democrats and the debates as representative of the country as a whole, or at least as representative of the majority of the country. For the most part they stayed in the centrist area of foreign policy, and they promised to protect popular programs like social security.

This year, the Republicans find themselves in a very uncomfortable place, because they are fighting over the votes of a highly conservative minority. In so doing, they antagonize anyone else who happens to be looking. They take radical positions on foreign policy, they talk about downsizing popular programs, and they adopt a political style that is irritating to the majority.

I think that Romney is keeping his fingers crossed that he can gain a knockout today, or at most within a few weeks, and then he can try to move towards the center. I don't think this will work all that well, but short of a worsening of the recession, I don't see a winning strategy for him. He has made too many outrageous statements during the debates, and these will be brought back in television ads in the fall.

[hal]

Ca Bob wrote: I think that Romney is keeping his fingers crossed that he can gain a knockout today, or at most within a few weeks, and then he can try to move towards the center. I don't think this will work all that well, but short of a worsening of the recession, I don't see a winning strategy for him. He has made too many outrageous statements during the debates, and these will be brought back in television ads in the fall.

I agree - Romney's last real chance is a BIG day today follow by immediate consolidation of the right. If Santorum is hanging on next week, it'll be the end of their chances I suspect...

[J Marston]

I don't actually think the candidates are worried much about what they'll look like when the primary ordeal is over, because I don't believe that any one of them is thinking of a general election campaign based on his own merits. The Republican nominee will try to make the November election about Obama: since about 40% cannot reconcile themselves to Obama, the Republican candidate only needs to convince 10% of voters that Obama is an obstacle to better polices. That voter doesn't have to believe much at all about the Republican candidate.

Obama, of course, will try to make this about the Republican candidate, or at least a contest between two candidates with different visions for the future--that would be a difficult election for any Republican after all the flubs and missteps of such a protracted primary campaign.

So the Republicans can say foolish things about contraception and NASCAR team owners and infidelities as the result of excess patriotism in the expectation that it won't matter in November. All that matters is winning the nomination.

[RgrF]

I suspect all the data goes south once you factor in the "I hate Obama at all costs vote". This is a solid 40% of the electorate. Allows Romney to key on that other 10%.

With his access to resources, it's now probable he'll buy his way into the White House.

PS: Oops seems I just reiterated JM's post prior to reading the same, but what the hell brilliant minds think alike.