"Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"

[Ted King]

Five Thirty Eight gives this pollster an A/B rating, which is why I thought it would be worth taking note of:

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-...tial-poll/

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.
- - - - -
In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

These results are odd in that the rest of the article goes on to show - in their polling - that Biden is doing better than Clinton did among several groups of voters.

Since 538 gives them a good rating and they predicted a Trump win in 2016, I thought this was at least worth noting. Of course, being right in 2016 doesn't imply that they're better than other poll-takers this time around. Kinda dampened my enthusiasm and (what used to be) my growing optimism, though. I probably needed a dose of over-enthusiasm antidote. lap:

[pdq]

Yeah, I saw that. I always anticipated this tightening, but this is just one poll. 538 still has an estimated 10 point (national) Biden lead, with these results included.

[Acer]

If we're this close, in the face of this absolute circus of an administration, and you are still undecided, might as well count you as a Trump voter.

[pdq]

FWIW, the NYT/Sienna College poll today shows Biden with a 9 point national lead. Those folks are also rated “A” by 538, IIRC.

...and of course, single national polls don’t mean a lot anyway; again, Biden doesn’t need Arizona, or North Carolina, or Georgia or Florida or even Ohio, all of which are close. And he remains high-single digits ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where I would be surprised if they repeated their error of four years ago.

If we vote, we win.

Edit: actually, 538 rates NYT/Sienna as “A+”.

[sekker]

That pollster bounces around, not too worried about the data points unless they stick.

Again, I am appalled at 42% of our fellow citizens.

[Lemon Drop]

This poll may be an outlier. If there aren't at least a few outlier polls this season then something is wrong.

Polls are not keeping me up at night but after that Pennsylvania decision yesterday the fear of a this election being decided 6-3 in the Supreme Court does.

[Speedy]

“Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line.”

[SteveO]

Feels like 2016. Let's hope that changes. I wonder if 538 takes into account voter suppression and outright cheating.

[Lemon Drop]

Speedy wrote:
“Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line.”

so true

[bfd]

The next few months are going to be the kind of shared experience that we'll say can never be forgotten - and then 50 years from now, the same thing will happen - with the same results.