CDC (yes, *that* CDC) reports 299,000 “excess deaths” so far in 2020

[pdq]

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (AKA MMWR)

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino...persons.These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

Philosophical question: if these ~100K deaths would not have occurred without the Covid pandemic, does that not mean they are Covid-related deaths?

I know, it’s probably Republicans dying of sheer pique that everything still isn’t opened back up and people are still wearing masks.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

I have been saying the official numbers are low almost from the start. If someone dies of a stroke because all their blood tuned to a clot at once, was it COVID-19 related? Most likely. This disease can cause people to die from what seems to be a dozen different causes.

[Speedy]

I’m not an epidemiologist but I play one on the forum. Yes, these are mostly COVID45 related. I bet traffic deaths are down. So are flu deaths. Homicides are up.

[SteveO]

COVID45 I like that. Allow me to fix it for you, though:

COVID45*

[Marc Anthony]

pdq wrote: if these ~100K deaths would not have occurred without the Covid pandemic, does that not mean they are Covid-related deaths?

It means there's an association. Causality isn't in evidence, but nCoV is a potential proximate cause; these statistical observations are otherwise unlikely, according to trends, however, the picture is still incomplete.