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Mother nature is heating up a tiny bit, but mostly, it's us.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n1...327.html#/
"Our method is complementary to optimal fingerprinting attribution and produces fully consistent results, thus suggesting an even higher confidence that human-induced causes dominate the observed warming."
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"Based on a massive ensemble of simulations "...
Well then, there's your problem :biggrin:
No, seriously I'll have to register and read the whole article. However, I just do NOT trust 'computer simulations', especially when it comes to such complex things as nature.
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I still have to ask (and cbelt I'd like you opinion on this specifically), what do we think is going to happen when you 'suddenly' release carbon dioxide that took millions of years to sequester?
Just keep in mind that in the past (based on geological records) levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere strongly correlated to hotter global temperatures (due to the green house effect).
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Jax, fair enough, but I have to reserve judgement on the article until I have time to read it. And of course I'm not a PhD scientist, nor do I play one on TV.
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You and me both brotha (and I guess my question wasn't directly regarding the article, so apologies for any thread jacking).
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Jax, de nada. Discourse is all about sharing ideas. We may not agree with 'em, but we can have fun airing them out !
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"Distrust computer modeling" is a common AGW skeptic point. But they've been refining these things for decades now. It is highly unlikely that at this point a mathematical "oops, never thought of that" is going to make it all go away.
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Acer wrote:
"Distrust computer modeling" is a common AGW skeptic point.
Actually it is an anti-science point. Anybody that says that they distrust computer modeling is really making a nonsense statement. Computer models are nothing more or less than mathematical calculations that are based on observed physical relationships. All of science relies on computer modeling, whether it is modeling the combustion process, fluid flow, gravity, brain function, whatever. Computer modeling is what allows us to improve cars, batteries, medicine, and a thousand other technological things. A great deal of care goes into computer models to evaluate sensitivities and uncertainties. If you say that you "distrust computer modeling" then you are saying that you don't believe in the methods that give us all the technological wonders that fill our lives and throwing your hands up in the air saying that science is not useful for predicting anything.
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davester wrote:
[quote=Acer]
"Distrust computer modeling" is a common AGW skeptic point.
Actually it is an anti-science point. Anybody that says that they distrust computer modeling is really making a nonsense statement. Computer models are nothing more or less than mathematical calculations that are based on observed physical relationships. All of science relies on computer modeling, whether it is modeling the combustion process, fluid flow, gravity, brain function, whatever. Computer modeling is what allows us to improve cars, batteries, medicine, and a thousand other technological things. A great deal of care goes into computer models to evaluate sensitivities and uncertainties. If you say that you "distrust computer modeling" then you are saying that you don't believe in the methods that give us all the technological wonders that fill our lives and throwing your hands up in the air saying that science is not useful for predicting anything.
I can understand some concern about some models if the situation in question has a very large number of variables to model, where many assumptions have to be made about those variables and there may be some debate amongst experts about the assumptions.
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