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How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 02, 2014 11:52AM
Poll
How long to recover?
Only registered users are allowed to vote for this poll.
37 votes were received.
Days not weeks 3
 
8%
Weeks not months 5
 
14%
months not years 7
 
19%
3 years 5
 
14%
10 years 2
 
5%
a generation 4
 
11%
two generations 0
 
0%
100+ years 1
 
3%
Pessimistic answer: No one would even notice. 10
 
26%



What duration of time would it take for most people, or the general population, to return to normal if in one day 2% of the entire world's population, randomly, globally, vanished without any reasonable explanation?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: July 02, 2014 11:59AM
Rapture?

Well, that would probably be closer to 0.02%.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Rick-o
Date: July 02, 2014 12:00PM
Quote
Lux Interior
Rapture?

Well, that would probably be closer to 0.02%.

That high?



Mr. Lahey: A lot of people, don’t know how to drink. They drink against the grain of the liquor. And when you drink against the grain of the liquor? You lose.

Randy: What the @#$%& are you talking about?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: neophyte
Date: July 02, 2014 12:07PM
If the current growth rate is about 1% per year, then about 2 years? Assuming the vanished were really a random sample of the population as a whole, no socio-economic upheaval as a result of the vanishing, etc.

What are you envisioning? Can I nominate some candidates to become "vanished"?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: clay
Date: July 02, 2014 12:08PM
depends what you mean in terms of "recover". Replace population? Or have people be "OK" with the situation, not really knowing what happened.

We are talking about ~150 million people disappearing.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: July 02, 2014 12:10PM
Somebody's getting ready for the latest HBO series.... turbo naughty smiley



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: bik
Date: July 02, 2014 12:13PM
If 140-150M people disappeared in one day, I think people alive to see it would remember it forever, and the youngsters would be told of it for many generations.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: TheCaber
Date: July 02, 2014 12:13PM
current world population:
7.13 billion people (2013 estimate)

2% is ~140million

[en.wikipedia.org] :
"The world population is the total number of living humans on Earth. As of 2013, it is estimated at 7.173 billion by the United States Census Bureau (USCB). The USCB estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012."
UN figures put the 7 billion point at 'late' 2011.

About 16 months to replace the 140 million (March 2012 - July 2013)



=TC
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: 3d
Date: July 02, 2014 12:22PM
NYC population is about 8.5 million.
That's about 170,000 people vanishing.

Total NYC deaths from 9/11 was about 2500.
13 years later and the city has not returned to normal. I still see soldiers in full gear and assault rifles every morning at Penn Station. Emotionally, I doubt it would ever return to normal for this adult generation of NYC'ers. And that is from "only" 2500 deaths.

I think it would take 60-70 years for the 9/11 generation to pass away. Before any normalcy returns to NYC.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: (vikm)
Date: July 02, 2014 12:37PM
When do we start?!?!?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: July 02, 2014 12:41PM
I don't mind going so long as they don't seat me next to a fat person.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: July 02, 2014 12:42PM
It probably depends a lot on where it happens or how it is done. There are plenty of areas in the world that are over populated/non sustainable. If it were in those areas the recovery would be almost instantaneous.



C(-)ris
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Throwback Thursday Signature:
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 02, 2014 12:49PM
I asked because that's the premise of the new HBO show "The Leftovers"
It starts out with people STILL GRIEVING.. and not coping well. THREE YEARS AFTER.

I thought that a bit long for this long-term memory challenged society we live in.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: billb
Date: July 02, 2014 12:57PM
based on the alleged quality of the sperm in the UK, never .....



The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: July 02, 2014 12:59PM
Take it at a personal level. How many people do you interact with in a week ? 10 ? 100 ? 1,000 ?

Now imagine the sudden absence of 2% of them. The loss of even one person important to us would be difficult.

The religious aspect of it would be most difficult, however. MANY nutsoids would cause much more problems. Not to mention the whole Kirk Cameron problem...
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: decay
Date: July 02, 2014 01:04PM
and it would ruin the insurance industry, right?



---
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: jdc
Date: July 02, 2014 01:07PM
Quote
Mini 9
I asked because that's the premise of the new HBO show "The Leftovers"
It starts out with people STILL GRIEVING.. and not coping well. THREE YEARS AFTER.

I thought that a bit long for this long-term memory challenged society we live in.

Well, that depends?

I dont live in NY. Never been to NY, or anywhere east of Denver. 9/11 was tragic, no doubt, but it didnt effect me like anyone from NY or even the Easy Coast.

I knew no one or know no one that was friends/family/aqantiences with anyone killed on 9/11.

So even just a day or so later, the impact was mostly over for me.

If 140 million people from any country outside the USA, I would think I would have the same reaction.

The only issue I have with the disappearance happening is the *way* they disappeared. If it was some mysterious random xxxxx then I might have a cause to worry?

India has 1.3 billion people. China 1.2. USA 330 million. losing 140 Million of the USA is almost half. 140 million of India/China? 10%....



----


Edited 999 time(s). Last edit at 12:08PM by jdc.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: bazookaman
Date: July 02, 2014 01:18PM
Well it wouldn't be JUST 2%. Think of a pilot disappearing while flying a plane. Or people driving around with families. School bus drivers. etc. That 2% would take A LOT more people with them.




__________________________________
There’s a guy wearing overalls with no shirt.
Which I think we all know is the International uniform for the last guy you’ll ever see.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mike Johnson
Date: July 02, 2014 01:24PM
If my wife or son disappeared without a trace, I'm not sure I'd ever get over it. If it happened to friends of mine too? 2% may not sound like a lot but let's say we're connected to 60 friends with families averaging 3 people in each, plus another 30 close family and another 60 cousins and whatnot? 270 people, so five or six more disappearances?

And think what it would be like to be a 10 year old in a school of 500 kids. Ten of them suddenly gone, a couple dozen losing a parent or sibling.

I've thought long and hard about this. I actually wrote about 80 pages of a novel based on the same sort of premise, back in the late nineties. I gave it up because it was too grim. I made a second stab at it, something with more dark humor, what today we'd call Urban Fantasy, but only got a couple chapters in before I gave it up. I haven't dabbled in fiction since.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: billb
Date: July 02, 2014 01:25PM
Let's hope only 2% of neighborhoods don't have a Costco.



The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
[soundcloud.com]
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: July 02, 2014 01:30PM
The other question of course is... who gets raptured ? all the smug self-important pseudo religious twits ?

Won't miss 'em much !
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Rick-o
Date: July 02, 2014 01:33PM
Quote
cbelt3
The other question of course is... who gets raptured ? all the smug self-important pseudo religious twits ?

Won't miss 'em much !

It will be the Mormons. Turns out their religion was the right one. devil smiley



Mr. Lahey: A lot of people, don’t know how to drink. They drink against the grain of the liquor. And when you drink against the grain of the liquor? You lose.

Randy: What the @#$%& are you talking about?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: 3d
Date: July 02, 2014 01:50PM
Quote
jdc
Quote
Mini 9
I asked because that's the premise of the new HBO show "The Leftovers"
It starts out with people STILL GRIEVING.. and not coping well. THREE YEARS AFTER.

I thought that a bit long for this long-term memory challenged society we live in.

Well, that depends?

I dont live in NY. Never been to NY, or anywhere east of Denver. 9/11 was tragic, no doubt, but it didnt effect me like anyone from NY or even the Easy Coast.

I knew no one or know no one that was friends/family/aqantiences with anyone killed on 9/11.

So even just a day or so later, the impact was mostly over for me.

If 140 million people from any country outside the USA, I would think I would have the same reaction.

The only issue I have with the disappearance happening is the *way* they disappeared. If it was some mysterious random xxxxx then I might have a cause to worry?

India has 1.3 billion people. China 1.2. USA 330 million. losing 140 Million of the USA is almost half. 140 million of India/China? 10%....

I was assuming that this 2% loss in population is dispersed evenly throughout the world. The 9/11 reference was a small and real example of how long it would take for LOCAL people to recover and get back to normal.

The 2011 tsunami in Japan killed 19,000 people. It didn't directly affect my daily routine in NYC at all. But for the LOCAL people in Japan I would venture a guess and say that it would take a similar 60-70 years for the people to recover.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Lew Zealand
Date: July 02, 2014 02:12PM
So, what's the point? Where did they go?
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: July 02, 2014 02:28PM
Quote
Rick-o
Quote
Lux Interior
Rapture?

Well, that would probably be closer to 0.02%.

That high?

Damn. I screwed up my joke math. Should have been 0.002%. Based on the current population, you can witness what I was getting at.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: decay
Date: July 02, 2014 02:36PM
[www.youtube.com]

rapture



---
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: davester
Date: July 02, 2014 02:41PM
The correct answer (2 years) is not in your poll, so I picked the closest thing (3 years). The world population growth rate is currently approximately 1% per year, so 1year x 2 = 2 years.

Pretty much this exact thing has happened during many wars. Just think what percentage of the population of Britain left on D-Day to never return.



"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/02/2014 02:46PM by davester.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: jdc
Date: July 02, 2014 03:02PM
Quote
3d
The 2011 tsunami in Japan killed 19,000 people. It didn't directly affect my daily routine in NYC at all. But for the LOCAL people in Japan I would venture a guess and say that it would take a similar 60-70 years for the people to recover.

Yeah. remember that tsunami in Indonesia in 2004? 280,000 gone... 19,000 is less than 10% of that...



----


Edited 999 time(s). Last edit at 12:08PM by jdc.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 02, 2014 03:29PM
Quote
jdc
Quote
Mini 9
I asked because that's the premise of the new HBO show "The Leftovers"
It starts out with people STILL GRIEVING.. and not coping well. THREE YEARS AFTER.

I thought that a bit long for this long-term memory challenged society we live in.

Well, that depends?

I dont live in NY. Never been to NY, or anywhere east of Denver. 9/11 was tragic, no doubt, but it didnt effect me like anyone from NY or even the Easy Coast.

I knew no one or know no one that was friends/family/aqantiences with anyone killed on 9/11.

So even just a day or so later, the impact was mostly over for me.

If 140 million people from any country outside the USA, I would think I would have the same reaction.

The only issue I have with the disappearance happening is the *way* they disappeared. If it was some mysterious random xxxxx then I might have a cause to worry?

India has 1.3 billion people. China 1.2. USA 330 million. losing 140 Million of the USA is almost half. 140 million of India/China? 10%....

SO it was "a couple of buildings" and move on? Ok, but if at least one, and at most say 20 people you know or know people that know, disappeared, would it take a year to get back to normal operations? Or would you still be coping/suicidal after 3 years? (or WHEN?)

That tv series kinda lays it out that THEY are having problems coping at 3 years.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 02, 2014 03:30PM
Quote
bazookaman
Well it wouldn't be JUST 2%. Think of a pilot disappearing while flying a plane. Or people driving around with families. School bus drivers. etc. That 2% would take A LOT more people with them.

yeah, the show had some of that aspect, too.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: July 02, 2014 03:41PM
Of course that also means that 11 congress critters are gone (2 senate, 9 reps - I rounded off).. so it may be worth it.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 02, 2014 03:42PM
wouldn't we actually double-dip?
2% would vanish.
And 2% less population would mean fewer representatives.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: RAMd®d
Date: July 02, 2014 04:08PM
Some people would say that losing 2% of the world's population is a start to recovery.

A small one, but a start nonetheless.

Not that I would say that.




When a good man is hurt,
all who would be called good
must suffer with him.

Everybody matters or nobody matters.

You and I have memories longer than the road that stretches out ahead.

There is no safety for honest men except
by believing all possible evil of evil men.

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-An armed society is a polite society.
And hope is a lousy defense.

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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: GGD
Date: July 02, 2014 05:36PM
Quote
Mini 9
What duration of time would it take for most people, or the general population, to return to normal if in one day 2% of the entire world's population, randomly, globally, vanished without any reasonable explanation?

I think a lot of people aren't reading this part of the original post. The way I read it, the question is not about how long it would take to rebuild the population, but how long to emotionally recover from the event "return to normal".

If 2% of this forum's population were to disappear in one day without explanation, I would actually consider that "normal" based on past history. Extrapolate to the entire world.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Wags
Date: July 02, 2014 10:05PM
Since the optimum population of the planet is about 2 billion I'd say that's a very small step in the right direction. If they're all fat burger munching SUV drivers it would be worth extra credit.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: davemchine
Date: July 02, 2014 10:48PM
I'm about half way through the tv show pilot and I have to say it is disturbing. The behavior of the characters is weird. Especially the young kids.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 03, 2014 07:15AM
Quote
davemchine
I'm about half way through the tv show pilot and I have to say it is disturbing. The behavior of the characters is weird. Especially the young kids.

Agreed. My wife watched it last night and said "IT'S WEIRD"
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: July 03, 2014 01:29PM
Haven't seen the show, but perhaps it's an "idiot plot"?

"a plot which is kept in motion solely by virtue of the fact that everybody involved is an idiot" and where the story would otherwise be over if this were not the case.

[en.wikipedia.org]
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: davemchine
Date: July 03, 2014 03:07PM
I watched The Last Ship after watching The Leftovers. Much more enjoyable.
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Re: How long to recover from losing 2% of world's population?
Posted by: Mini 9
Date: July 03, 2014 05:20PM
some of The Last Ship's dialog was very very bad.
Seems much more mainstream than the leftovers, though.
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