sell, buy, steady for the next year?

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Hurts like a bastid...

My current "guesstimate" is that it'll climb slowly through this year... past that, I won't speculate.

I'm not buying more right now, but I'm not selling, either.
Thinking of lightening the percentage of my portfolio that AAPL makes up... but, I've been thinking of that for a few years now, since what was less than 10% of my portfolio has become almost 60% of it over the last 10 years. Just haven't brought myself to sell yet.

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Paul F.
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A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
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Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.
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Eureka, CA

With Verizon wireless following suit with other US carriers to no longer subsidize new phones and China's economy on the rocks, what was once a no-brainer for many consumers, updating a 2 year old iPhone for the latest and greatest will slow down. I'm guessing AAPL will be steady for the next year. AAPL took the hits like a punching bag the past month. I don't think it will go down (or up) much.

I'm in almost the exact same boat Paul. AAPL is now about 60% of my holdings, and I started by buying 2 shares/month....

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Good topic. I've also wondered what strategy the MR folks are using since the recent drop.

I was in a rigid, long term holding pattern up until the drop. Now I'm thinking about throwing in cash from my 110 year old barn's steel roof fund that's grown to abou 25K.

I need a new roof for the barn, but this seems like an opportunity that doesn't happen too often.

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Mr. Lahey: A lot of people, don’t know how to drink. They drink against the grain of the liquor. And when you drink against the grain of the liquor? You lose.

Randy: What the @#$%& are you talking about?

My stock index mutual fund owns tens of thousands of AAPL, so I'll probably hold...

Wow, having 60% of my portfolio concentrated in a single volatile stock would make me nervous. That is very high Risk / Reward.

Then again, I finally saw the light (Bogleheads) about 3 years ago, when my AAPL holdings had grown to 15%. I've since scaled back to 5% and will continue to diversify.

Short term, I expect China to continue to effect AAPL, but seasonally speaking fall / winter has typically been strong for AAPL.

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bhaveshp
Wow, having 60% of my portfolio concentrated in a single volatile stock would make me nervous. That is very high Risk / Reward.

Oh, it does... but it also just keeps going UP...
Not a permanent state of affairs, probably, but it makes hitting the "sell" button and paying the capital gains harder.
I sold a few shares last year, so I'm probably below 50% now, but still...
And hey, it didn't start OUT being so much! That's a net positive, right?

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Paul F.
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A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.
--

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Eureka, CA



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/13/2015 02:20PM by Paul F..

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Paul F.
Oh, it does... but it also just keeps going UP...
Not a permanent state of affairs, probably, but it makes hitting the "sell" button and paying the capital gains harder.
I sold a few shares last year, so I'm probably below 50% now, but still...
And hey, it didn't start OUT being so much! That's a net positive, right?

Ha, definitely a positive.

Actually, confession.. I partially still have the same dilemma, having bought a 100 shares of Apple in each of my kids accounts ~ 10 years back. Good news, this alone will pay for a few years of college. Bad news, Cap Gains for them. Oh well.

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bhaveshp


Actually, confession.. I partially still have the same dilemma, having bought a 100 shares of Apple in each of my kids accounts ~ 10 years back. Good news, this alone will pay for a few years of college. Bad news, Cap Gains for them. Oh well.

Is that pre-stock-split 100 shares or post? If pre then you should be in good shape for college indeed.

It's more than "just" China. There's also formidable competition in China. Especially Xiaomi, which is currently the big dog. Releasing beast phones for less than half the price. They just supplanted Apple/Samsung as the number one vendor there and they're going deeper with some brand new offerings.

Pay attention to everything.

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mrbigstuff
sell, buy, steady for the next year?

Hold forever.

I've been thinking about it as well. I'm only about 10% AAPL, but it has been pretty flat on YTD. I can't decide if it has gone flat or if the manipulators are just having a busy year.

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Billybob
Is that pre-stock-split 100 shares or post? If pre then you should be in good shape for college indeed.

Pre-split. Looked it up - Bought Jan 2007, cost basis $17 per share, 576% gain. Though I've been selling shares for each of the past 5 years, it is still a big % of their college UTMA accounts. Good problem to have...

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Ombligo
I've been thinking about it as well. I'm only about 10% AAPL, but it has been pretty flat on YTD. I can't decide if it has gone flat or if the manipulators are just having a busy year.

Including dividends, it is up 5.7% YTD vs 2.5% for the market. Of course it was up 20% YTD until earnings report a few weeks back.

[quote.morningstar.com]

I think there are some terrific updates in the works:

1) Rev B MacBook is going to be a terrific improvement over current model that's getting rave reviews. A high margin device now that they are setup to manufacture. I want to see a finger print sensor in this device.

2) Intel is going to deliver a new high-end CPU that may justify convincing the mobile professional market to upgrade hardware like the 15"MBPR - a high margin area. I want to see a finger print sensor in this device.

3) The rev4 Apple TV looks to be a good update, if the rumors are even half right.

4) The iPad mini is getting a true refresh this year to look like the iPad Air 2 style

5) The much-rumored iPad Pro may become a reality - if it's released this year, it could be new revenue or at least a basis for revenue growth with Rev B next year.

6) I am completely neutral on the Apple Watch having any net positive impact on the Apple bottom line. Apple spent a LOT of $$ on getting the Apple Watch going.

So how come so many people are still sticking with Snow Leopard?

Snow leopard mother Siri stands next to her male cub Barid at the zoo in Cologne, western Germany.

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Steve G.
So how come so many people are still sticking with Snow Leopard?

Snow leopard mother Siri stands next to her male cub Barid at the zoo in Cologne, western Germany.

It just works.

I'm probably going to hold.

I sold some just a couple of weeks ago in order to diversify into other stocks. AAPL still makes up a huge part of my portfolio, though.