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Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Drew
Date: May 17, 2017 01:24AM
"Our detailed analysis shows that the cost of transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will fall to such an extent that owners of vehicles will abandon their individually owned vehicles at a speed and scale that mainstream analysts have failed to predict. This is because they have failed to foresee the extent of the cost reduction and the impact that will have on the speed of adoption."

[mynorthwest.com]
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: May 17, 2017 01:32AM
....and AI will take over most jobs. Eh, not so much on either one, imo.



Hurts like a bastid...
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 17, 2017 01:36AM
They underestimate people who want to take a motorcycle or a classic droptop out for a sunday drive.

Sure, hail an Uber and request a '68 Caddy droptop. It will be a looooooong wait. Forever.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Drew
Date: May 17, 2017 01:36AM
I live in Japan and can imagine this happening much faster here than in the US, at least in urban Japan. Many here don't have cars anyway. On the other hand, Americans don't just go from point A to point B in their cars, but to many points on their daily journeys. They also seem to need carry more stuff and keep more stuff in their cars. Still, the article makes some interesting points about the economics of it all.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 17, 2017 01:38AM
For some, economics don't factor in at all, and it's NOT because they are rich. For some, it's not wanting to move from point A to be at point B, its the journey to point B.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: freeradical
Date: May 17, 2017 01:47AM
It is a far more efficient use of a resource as far as the user is concerned.

You drive to work and park your car. You drive home and park your car. What a waste.

The only fly in the ointment is that this solution does not solve the peak demand problem.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: GGD
Date: May 17, 2017 02:46AM
Quote
Drew
On the other hand, Americans don't just go from point A to point B in their cars, but to many points on their daily journeys. They also seem to need carry more stuff and keep more stuff in their cars.

This is what I was thinking about, when I run errands and shop, I'm always making multiple stops, and the car is used for storage of what I'm buying or dropping off between stops. I'll also keep personal stuff in the car like a sweat shirt that I may wear or leave in the car depending on weather. Maybe something to drink, or snack on is also in the car for longer outings.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Forrest
Date: May 17, 2017 03:21AM
As the baby boomers age, I see self=driving cars becoming popular as their eyesight/health declines. Self-driving cars will be able to keep them independent, rather than moving into an assisted care facility.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Drew
Date: May 17, 2017 03:26AM
Quote
Forrest
As the baby boomers age, I see self=driving cars becoming popular as their eyesight/health declines. Self-driving cars will be able to keep them independent, rather than moving into an assisted care facility.

I agree, but can't Uber-types provide that now?
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Bimwad
Date: May 17, 2017 04:51AM
Uber is losing billions of dollars per year, and that's as the dominant ride sharing provider operating under their current MO of paying their drivers peanuts, and skirting all those pesky rules and regulations that governments put in their way.

That's fine as long as the Saudis and other investors continue to bankroll them, but imagine how much it would cost them to operate as a legitimate company.

Mobility as a service will have its place, but the dominant (95%) one? In 2030? Anyone want to take bets on that?

Academics and Silicon Valley entrepreneur-types dream big, and sometimes hit it big, but more often than not, reality tends to spoil those plans.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Mr645
Date: May 17, 2017 06:15AM
Not sure I can give up my car by then. Perhaps give up my clutch pedal but the whole car?



Biden/Putin 2024
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: SDGuy
Date: May 17, 2017 06:25AM
Quote
Drew
...Americans don't just go from point A to point B in their cars, but to many points on their daily journeys. They also seem to need carry more stuff and keep more stuff in their cars...

Yep....



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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: billb
Date: May 17, 2017 06:25AM
Political analyst "experts" claimed a certain candidate couldn't possibly win in the last Presidential nomination.

meh.



The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: May 17, 2017 07:01AM
Quote
freeradical
It is a far more efficient use of a resource as far as the user is concerned.

You drive to work and park your car. You drive home and park your car. What a waste.

The only fly in the ointment is that this solution does not solve the peak demand problem.

Exactly. Many are trying to solve what is called the "last mile" conundrum, where transit nodes may be available up to a certain point, but are not feasible or cost effective to build out for the last mile. At this point, this is where ride shares could be effective.



Hurts like a bastid...
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Paul F.
Date: May 17, 2017 07:56AM
I can always spot a study where the people conducting it, and the majority of the respondants, have lived their entire lives in a big city.



Paul F.
-----
A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand. - Lucius Annaeus Seneca c. 5 BC - 65 AD
----
Good is the enemy of Excellent. Talent is not necessary for Excellence.
Persistence is necessary for Excellence. And Persistence is a Decision.

--

--

--
Eureka, CA
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Yoyodyne ArtWorks
Date: May 17, 2017 08:07AM
Quote
Bimwad
Uber is losing billions of dollars per year, and that's as the dominant ride sharing provider operating under their current MO of paying their drivers peanuts, and skirting all those pesky rules and regulations that governments put in their way.

That's fine as long as the Saudis and other investors continue to bankroll them, but imagine how much it would cost them to operate as a legitimate company.

Mobility as a service will have its place, but the dominant (95%) one? In 2030? Anyone want to take bets on that?

Academics and Silicon Valley entrepreneur-types dream big, and sometimes hit it big, but more often than not, reality tends to spoil those plans.

+1, eloquently put.



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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: May 17, 2017 08:32AM
Self driving 'pods' replacing other forms of mass transit in urban areas.. okay, fine. But really should be replaced with a more efficient form of transport like... subway. train. Bus.

Rural areas ? Try getting an Uber to take you to the Grange Hall in the hinterlands from your farmhouse on rural route 212A.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: TLB
Date: May 17, 2017 08:40AM
I need my pickup as long as I live where I do. I generally use one as my primary vehicle for 10 years and then keep it as an auxiliary work vehicle for another 10 or more years. I may be able to use sharing for much of my transit needs, but not for my hauling needs.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: S. Pupp
Date: May 17, 2017 08:49AM
Quote
Paul F.
I can always spot a study where the people conducting it, and the majority of the respondants, have lived their entire lives in a big city.

Well said.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: pRICE cUBE
Date: May 17, 2017 08:53AM
This might happen in more urban settings but I don't see it happening in places such as the midwest and Western suburban and rural areas. Even of it happens, I doubt it will by 2030.



Ways to improve web conference image and sound quality. [forums.macresource.com]


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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: billb
Date: May 17, 2017 09:15AM
It may be that by 2030 there will be such a divide between the haves and have nots that the typical person just can't afford a typical car.
By 2030 congestion on highways may be so bad that a computerized autonomous network may be the only functional solution.
More than likely a typical driven car will be mandated off the public access roads, if there are even any public access/owned roads left.
But people voluntarily "ditching" their cars ?

I doubt it.

More than likely there won't be a choice.



The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
[soundcloud.com]




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/17/2017 09:16AM by billb.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Zoidberg
Date: May 17, 2017 09:53AM
These reports/stories always just look at large metro area dwellers.

Once had a pretty heated conversation with a cousin about how I was an ass for still owning a car (and a fossil fuel one instead of an electric) while his family utilized extensively all the public transit available to him. Easier to say when you live in a metro area.



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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: rz
Date: May 17, 2017 10:07AM
um, yeah. No.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: jdc
Date: May 17, 2017 10:14AM
Quote
Drew
I live in Japan and can imagine this happening much faster here than in the US, at least in urban Japan. Many here don't have cars anyway. On the other hand, Americans don't just go from point A to point B in their cars, but to many points on their daily journeys. They also seem to need carry more stuff and keep more stuff in their cars. Still, the article makes some interesting points about the economics of it all.

Today I need to drop off 2 kids at 2 different schools at 2 different times, head to UPS, head to the grocery store for a few things, then Target. I have 2 8 X 10 rugs to return, and pickup a few things.

Maybe I decide while Im out since Im right near Home Depot I will stopp in and look at some plants for the planter out front, or a new hose sprayer.

After 2 school pickups, kids might be hungry, so maybe pop by in-n-out for a cheese burger, or ikea for an ice cream or who knows?

Doing any of that by automation? nope.





Edited 999 time(s). Last edit at 12:08PM by jdc.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: mattkime
Date: May 17, 2017 10:51AM
You've all been trolled by a venture capitalist invested in automated driving, likely pointing to his own research as he asks for money.

Man, according to this thread you'd think everyone spends all their time transporting rugs.



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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: May 17, 2017 11:26AM
Okay, so who wants to invest in a company where robots retrofit 68 Caddy convertibles with self-driving systems?



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: vision63
Date: May 17, 2017 12:48PM
I'll never not want to drive.

I loves to drive.

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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Robert M
Date: May 17, 2017 01:14PM
JDC,

Exactly. They underestimate the number of people who don't want to have to hail an uber vehicle and wait for it to arrive each time they want to travel from place to place. Factor in a baby, toddler or child and you now have to deal with car seats and booster seats in the uber or automated vehicle. Anyone who thinks I'm going to transfer Little M's car seat from vehicle to vehicle each time we need a ride is a moron. And, I will definitely _not_ use someone else's car seat unless said individual is a trusted friend or family member.

Robert
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: vision63
Date: May 17, 2017 01:27PM
Quote
Robert M
JDC,

Exactly. They underestimate the number of people who don't want to have to hail an uber vehicle and wait for it to arrive each time they want to travel from place to place. Factor in a baby, toddler or child and you now have to deal with car seats and booster seats in the uber or automated vehicle. Anyone who thinks I'm going to transfer Little M's car seat from vehicle to vehicle each time we need a ride is a moron. And, I will definitely _not_ use someone else's car seat unless said individual is a trusted friend or family member.

Robert

To be real tho. People use their baby seats on Uber a whole lot. I see it everyday. I personally would not want to.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: May 17, 2017 01:34PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
Robert M
JDC,

Exactly. They underestimate the number of people who don't want to have to hail an uber vehicle and wait for it to arrive each time they want to travel from place to place. Factor in a baby, toddler or child and you now have to deal with car seats and booster seats in the uber or automated vehicle. Anyone who thinks I'm going to transfer Little M's car seat from vehicle to vehicle each time we need a ride is a moron. And, I will definitely _not_ use someone else's car seat unless said individual is a trusted friend or family member.

Robert

To be real tho. People use their baby seats on Uber a whole lot. I see it everyday. I personally would not want to.

It isn't that hard to move a seat, you sound like my wife. Every time a seat needs to be moved I have to do it. As long as your seat and your car have the latch system it literally takes less than a minute to move a seat around and tighten the straps. Our main seat has a retractable tension latch system with buttons to release the clips. It is almost as easy as buckling yourself up.



C(-)ris
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Robert M
Date: May 17, 2017 01:38PM
C(-)ris,

I know it isn't hard to move a infant or child's car seat. It's just an added unnecessary nuisance to have to do it. And, if I'm out and about, I sure as heck will not want to have to take it with me, i.e. into a store.

Robert



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/17/2017 01:39PM by Robert M.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: vision63
Date: May 17, 2017 01:46PM
Oh no. I think people gotta do what they gotta do. My mother took us on the city bus primarily.
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Re: Expert believes consumers will ditch their cars by 2030
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 17, 2017 01:51PM
Quote
jdc
Quote
Drew
I live in Japan and can imagine this happening much faster here than in the US, at least in urban Japan. Many here don't have cars anyway. On the other hand, Americans don't just go from point A to point B in their cars, but to many points on their daily journeys. They also seem to need carry more stuff and keep more stuff in their cars. Still, the article makes some interesting points about the economics of it all.

Today I need to drop off 2 kids at 2 different schools at 2 different times, head to UPS, head to the grocery store for a few things, then Target. I have 2 8 X 10 rugs to return, and pickup a few things.

Maybe I decide while Im out since Im right near Home Depot I will stopp in and look at some plants for the planter out front, or a new hose sprayer.

After 2 school pickups, kids might be hungry, so maybe pop by in-n-out for a cheese burger, or ikea for an ice cream or who knows?

Doing any of that by automation? nope.

Don't worry, by 2030, Amazon will have solutions for all of that, and we will never need to leave our domicile, or meet another human, ever again.
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