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Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Racer X
Date: August 18, 2018 10:09PM
How can they be so consistantly wrong and not get fired? In some markets, like San Diego, it's very predictable, sure. But when they are 10-15 degrees off, and miss a huge rain storm, or predict snow and we get a 40+ degree day without a single cloud in the sky, how can they keep their jobs? They flat out lie.

They don't say the data suggests it will be in the high 60's to low '70s, they say "It will be 70 tomorrow, and 75 the next day" and be horribly wrong.

Today in Seattle, according to the 11pm news last night, it would hit 70 briefly. Mid 80s all afternoon at my house, in the shade, with the thermometer several feet away from the house, hanging off my deck. No external influences, and the thermometer is accurate.

WTF?
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: August 18, 2018 10:27PM
....weather you're right.....weather you're wrong.....girl of my heart.....I'll string along.....



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: August 18, 2018 10:39PM
The National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides the raw data.

The situation with that organization is a bit... distressing.

They've faced cutbacks across the last several administrations and the latest administration has gutted the organization on top of a hiring-freeze. There's little more than a shell of the operation left. There were 250 people in charge of providing forecasts across America. 248 of them were told they'd be fired this year. And Congress intends to skim another 20% off of the next budget.

They were supposed to launch a bunch of satellites to bring us *almost* up to par with the Europeans. Not happening now... Tho they might send one up with all of the sensors designed to help track global warming trends disabled.

Two decades ago, they were bragging about their cutting edge computers and satellites and talking about predicting weather a year in advance. They're using the same computers and those satellites are barely functional. It's all getting pretty creaky and it's going to get worse.

They fill in the gaps with data from surprising sources, such as airplane radar systems, but that is more for estimating current conditions than predicting tomorrow's weather.

Some meteorologists can get info from private parties, including both corporate resellers of info from weather services and space agencies. Some can source info from little stations set up in backyards, schools and churches and crowd-sourced from people's cell phones. But not all of them have the same resources and as the world warms, weather patterns can change quickly.

Climate change means that even predicting weather patterns in the short-term takes more computing power and demands more data which they simply don't have. We're not going to get much in the way of advance warnings about storms, floods, fires and tornadoes and even getting enough info to decide whether to bring an umbrella to work on Monday may be a challenge.

So, I don't blame the weather man/woman.

It's pretty much entirely the fault of Congress with the help of the POTUS.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/18/2018 10:42PM by Sarcany.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: billb
Date: August 18, 2018 10:42PM
It has been a good old boys club or a long time.



The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Racer X
Date: August 18, 2018 10:55PM
I understand the effect that all has Sarceny, but to present their moderate guesses as "fact" and be seriously wrong, and here in Seattle, consistently wrong all summer, really makes me wonder.

I have friends who are active military, or recently mustered out. I can assure you that a tactical weather report to spec-ops ground troops or pilots is VERY accurate. The data exists. The area it encompasses is roughly the Seattle area in terms of relative size. If they can get it right for a 48-72 hour period, why can't the civilians do it for just 24 hours?

I have poked around and the overall consensus is that they are right @80% of the time. Based on that, for the next 300 days they better be 100% perfect.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: August 18, 2018 11:08PM
Quote
Racer X
I have friends who are active military, or recently mustered out. I can assure you that a tactical weather report to spec-ops ground troops or pilots is VERY accurate.

It's really not more accurate than what we get

You're not factoring in variations in geography or the frequency of their tactical updates.

I used to live in a region of the Hudson valley in New York where the Hudson River moderated the weather pretty reliably. They could predict the weather many weeks in advance with great accuracy.

I live near a large river now, but the geography is otherwise very different. They can barely predict the weather 2hrs in advance, let alone a whole day or week.

More data and the computing power to interpret it would help tremendously, but it's never going to be as accurate for this stretch of land as it was back in New York.

But that can be moderated somewhat by frequent updates. If you check an app like Dark Sky or Weather Underground to get the day's forecast in advance, you'll find that it's got about the same accuracy as your morning TV news show. But you can check those apps throughout the day to see how it changes. Dark Sky can't say reliably whether I'm going to get rained on during my commute home from work if I check at 8am, but it's dead-on accurate if I check at 4pm.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/19/2018 12:00AM by Sarcany.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Markintosh
Date: August 18, 2018 11:38PM
Well, one thing is that the models still haven't got a handle on this "new normal". The data fed into the computers is likely with information that was correct about the PNW 20 years ago. The models don't know how to react when sea surface temperatures are much warmer, and on a widespread basis to boot. That means that onshore and off shore winds are all screwed up compared to old norms.

So since the "weatherman" or person on TV is just reading what the models show, they are likely to be pretty suspect. Very few TV weather personalities actually have true meteorological training to make any other guess at the weather.

For most of the summer meteorologists can bet that the "persistence" forecast is most likely to happen. Things get more tricky with the seasonal change starting to take place. The water rapidly cooling off much of the California coast, the forecast becomes more difficult.



“Live your life, love your life, don’t regret…live, learn and move forward positively.” – CR Johnson
Loving life in Lake Tahoe, CA
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: August 19, 2018 12:20AM
Quote
Markintosh
Well, one thing is that the models still haven't got a handle on this "new normal". The data fed into the computers is likely with information that was correct about the PNW 20 years ago. The models don't know how to react when sea surface temperatures are much warmer, and on a widespread basis to boot. That means that onshore and off shore winds are all screwed up compared to old norms.

That's one of those budget-related issues.

They haven't updated the Global Forecast System in ages. It has the least accuracy and lowest resolution of any computer model in the Western world. That's why you always hear people citing the "European model" whenever there's a hurricane.

They keep on developing new models, but with each one they get so bogged down in testing with no man-power and limited computing resources that by the time they hit the deadline to deploy or pull the new model they can't prove that it's any more accurate than the old one and they end up throwing it all away.

I should correct myself on this score: They got the budget for a new supercomputer in 2014, and were able to deploy a Cray in 2016 with the goal of adopting a new model and getting back to accurate forecasts by 2020.

...But then they lost the budget to maintain or program it and they don't have the data to supply it for accurate forecasts.

So, although it's already looking a little long in the tooth, they have the computing power to do better. They just can't use it. They need about a billion dollars more in their budget just to get back to where they were in 2016. Instead, most of Congress (and the newly-appointed administrator of the agency) wants to take another billon away from NOAA, leaving them at about a third of the operating capability they had two years ago when they were already considered at the bare-bones.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/19/2018 12:22AM by Sarcany.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: mattkime
Date: August 19, 2018 12:26AM
microclimates



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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: DP
Date: August 19, 2018 08:00AM
The simple answer is that our weather is dependent on so many variables, which constantly change, that it's impossible to be accurate any more than a few hours out (with the possible exception of San Diego!). Every meteorological book I've read starts out saying this. To tell us that one factor will cause a nightmare scenario and to predict what the weather will be 10, 30, 50 years out is ridiculous.

Computers only output what data is fed into them. To produce an outcome that some want us to believe-to force us to believe-is a no-brainer.





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Disclaimer: This post is checked for correct spelling, punctuation, and grammar. Any attempts at humor are solely the responsibility of the author and bear no claim that any and all readers will approve or appreciate said attempt at humor.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Robert M
Date: August 19, 2018 08:20AM
Racer,

The old adage of the weatherman is always wrong or mostly wrong really no longer applies. As much as I hate to say it, forecasts I see on TV are correct far more often than wrong. That and it is truly impossible to forecast the weather with 100% certainty. So, if the weatherperson is correct most of the time, I'd say he/she is doing a reasonably solid job and will retain his/her position. 'course, the job of a TV weatherperson is more to forecasting the weather. It takes other skills and inherent traits to do the job, and if the person has them _and_ can get it right often enough, he/she will retain his/her position.

Robert
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: space-time
Date: August 19, 2018 08:21AM
National Weather Service or not, NYC NBC station claims to have one of the most powerful radars ever, predicting rain pattern down to street level with minute accuracy. Do they really have such a radar or it is marketing BS?
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: August 19, 2018 08:42AM
Quote
space-time
National Weather Service or not, NYC NBC station claims to have one of the most powerful radars ever, predicting rain pattern down to street level with minute accuracy. Do they really have such a radar or it is marketing BS?

I think all the major TV markets have a station with the strongest, most accurate radar in existence. Some even have two spaced a few miles apart to give 3d or something. It's marketing.

Regardless, what ever they have is new, stronger, and more accurate than the radar the NWS relies on. And don't think the meteorologists the NWS relies on are better than meteorologists that the better TV stations have. TV pays better than the NWS, so they get the cream (as long as it is personable, good looking cream.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/19/2018 08:45AM by Ombligo.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: August 19, 2018 10:04AM
Quote
space-time
National Weather Service or not, NYC NBC station claims to have one of the most powerful radars ever, predicting rain pattern down to street level with minute accuracy. Do they really have such a radar or it is marketing BS?

Mixed BS. They are almost certainly just getting data from the radar at one or more of the local airports.

This gives them very accurate reporting of the current weather -- perhaps down to a quarter-mile or so, which could be considered street-level -- and may aid in short-term forecasts, but it's not going to help much in figuring out whether it's gonna rain tomorrow.



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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Mr Downtown
Date: August 19, 2018 10:37AM
Implicit in your question is the suggestion that the next guy would be able to do a better job. And that's clearly not the case.

I've always lived in the middle of the continent, where local weather is extremely unpredictable. The quality of forecasts has improved tremendously since I was a kid. We now have five-day forecasts good enough to buy outdoor concert tickets based on, and hour-by-hour forecasts that tell me whether to take an umbrella to the supermarket. Thanks to this forum, I keep Dark Sky on my phone, and that tells me to the minute—usually pretty accurately—when rain will stop or start on my block.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: dad@home
Date: August 19, 2018 10:38AM
In Peru in 1996 people angry at a bad forecast lynched their local TV meteorologist.

[groups.google.com]


Quote

Ever had a bad hair day because of a poor weather forecast? Or canceled a
vacation when there was bad weather but it never occurred? Or maybe there
was a tragic accident as the result of some un-forecast bad weather. How
about suing the weather forecaster?

Lawsuits and even more extreme measures have been tried over the years. In
Brazil, Luis Carlos Austin, the head of the Rio de Janeiro weather bureau,
was charged with ``sounding a false alarm'' in January 2002 after a big
storm failed to materialize. He faced a six-month prison term.

Things were even worse for Peruvian meteorologist Francisco Arias Olivera.
In April 1996 the popular TV weatherman did not accurately predict the 19
inches of rain that resulted in a flash flood that killed 17 people in the
small town of Sicuani, Peru. He was lynched by an angry club-toting mob and
hanged from a tree outside the TV station.



For some must watch, while some must sleep
So runs the world away
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: billb
Date: August 19, 2018 12:08PM
Sometimes ya just don't care about the forecast being wrong or right





The Phorum Wall keeps us safe from illegal characters and words
The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is the knowledge of one's own ignorance. -Benjamin Franklin
BOYCOTT YOPLAIT [www.noyoplait.com]
[soundcloud.com]
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Racer X
Date: August 19, 2018 02:25PM
Quote
Robert M
Racer,

The old adage of the weatherman is always wrong or mostly wrong really no longer applies. As much as I hate to say it, forecasts I see on TV are correct far more often than wrong. That and it is truly impossible to forecast the weather with 100% certainty. So, if the weatherperson is correct most of the time, I'd say he/she is doing a reasonably solid job and will retain his/her position. 'course, the job of a TV weatherperson is more to forecasting the weather. It takes other skills and inherent traits to do the job, and if the person has them _and_ can get it right often enough, he/she will retain his/her position.

Robert

The overall average is 80% correct. Local forecasters are batting maybe 50 this summer.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: wolfcry911
Date: August 19, 2018 02:45PM
Tonight's forecast:
increasing darkness followed by tomorrow
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: August 19, 2018 03:43PM
Channel 7 in Buffalo had the answer. It was called 'The Weather Outside' and featured the forecast given by the weather guy from the WKBW parking lot.
Not so special, you say? How about when it's -5°F, the snow is thick and the wind is 30mph...everyone used to tune in for this one, every day.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: August 19, 2018 04:11PM
Quote
Racer X
Today in Seattle, according to the 11pm news last night, it would hit 70 briefly. Mid 80s all afternoon at my house, in the shade, with the thermometer several feet away from the house, hanging off my deck. No external influences, and the thermometer is accurate.

WTF?

Are you sure you heard that right? The forecast I saw last night was for a highs "in the 70s and 80s" and that's what it was, high was 80 today. But it cooled down quickly. It's about 74 now in Seattle at 2 PM.
Hitting 90 by Tuesday and more smokey air on the way. Ugh.

National Weather Service Seattle: (just now)
Temperatures this early afternoon are running mostly in the 70s with cooler temps near the water. Expect high temperatures today away from the water to be mostly in the 80s.


[twitter.com]

Seattle has a lot of micro-climates in the city, depending on how close to the water you are. Can be 10 degress different or more in parts of the city, at the same time.
You must be in a warm zone.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/19/2018 04:16PM by Lemon Drop.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Racer X
Date: August 19, 2018 05:15PM
Friday's 11PM report said high of 70 for Saturday. Mid '80s at my house in Seattle Saturday until about 6pm.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/19/2018 05:17PM by Racer X.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: RAMd®d
Date: August 20, 2018 01:59AM
This thread made me think if Steve Martin in L.A. Story.





Your boos mean nothing to me, I've seen what you cheer for.

Insisting on your rights without acknowledging your responsibilities isn’t freedom, it’s adolescence.

We are a government of laws, not men.

Everybody matters or nobody matters.

When a good man is hurt,
all who would be called good
must suffer with him.

You and I have memories longer than the road that stretches out ahead.

There is no safety for honest men except
by believing all possible evil of evil men.

We don’t do focus groups. They just ensure that you don’t offend anyone, and produce bland inoffensive products. —Sir Jonathan Ive

An armed society is a polite society.
And hope is a lousy defense.

You make me pull, I'll put you down.

I *love* SIGs. It's Glocks I hate.
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Re: Truly sincere question, why don't TV weather forcasters get fired?
Posted by: Racer X
Date: August 20, 2018 07:24PM
Horribly wrong yet again. Sunday night 11PM TV forecast said 90, topped out at 81.

The average is 80% correct. So considering our idiots, I guess San Diego's forecasters are the other end of the bell curve.
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