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Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 12, 2020 11:17PM
Here's the OP: [forums.macresource.com]

... I just ran my info again ... and I now have a ridiculously high likelihood of dying if I catch it, and my risk of catching it also went up quite a bit, though I'm still in the lowest risk band for that.

Note to self: don't catch it.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 12, 2020 11:55PM
52% chance of getting it and 30% chance of dying (and I have a breathing problem that wasn't listed so my odds are not good.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Speedy
Date: April 13, 2020 12:11AM
My odds got very slightly better of not catching and not dying.

We estimate you have a 52% chance
of catching COVID-19.
The average is 55.76%

If infected we estimate you have a 4.37% chance
of dying from COVID-19.
The average is 3.762%



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: jdc
Date: April 13, 2020 12:23AM
33% and 1.18%



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Edited 999 time(s). Last edit at 12:08PM by jdc.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: April 13, 2020 01:07AM
I have very few strikes against catching it, how come it's over 50%? Does that mean roughly half the people in the country will catch it?
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Buzz
Date: April 13, 2020 01:27AM
Infection Risk
We estimate you have a 33% chance of catching COVID-19.
The average is 55.76%

You are in a low risk band for catching COVID-19
33% is the equivalent of 1 in 3.03 people or betting odds of 2.03/1.

Mortality Risk
If infected we estimate you have a 26.706% chance of dying from COVID-19.
The average is 3.762%

You are in the highest risk band for dying from COVID-19
26.706% is the equivalent of 1 in 3.74 people or betting odds of 2.74/1.


Oopsy.
==
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: bazookaman
Date: April 13, 2020 06:37AM
We estimate you have a 18% chance
of catching COVID-19.
The average is 55.76%

If infected we estimate you have a 0.723% chance
of dying from COVID-19.
The average is 3.762%




__________________________________
There’s a guy wearing overalls with no shirt.
Which I think we all know is the International uniform for the last guy you’ll ever see.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: mstudio
Date: April 13, 2020 08:24AM
Infection Risk 15%
Mortality Risk If Infected 13.547%
Survival Probability 97.968%

The numbers changed for me, got better actually. last time I did not input the medication I'm on for high blood pressure. I also noticed that you can take the bar past just the three options.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: April 13, 2020 08:37AM
It'd be nice if they had some explanations.

My mortality risk just jumped by 500%.



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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 13, 2020 10:19AM
Quote
Sarcany
It'd be nice if they had some explanations.

My mortality risk just jumped by 500%.

They do -- here it is: [www.covid19survivalcalculator.com]

... they must have, in the time since originally posted, changed a lot of the variables to reflect current data ... that doesn't relieve me though, quite the opposite -- since it seems now my risk of dying is over 10x as high as it was before.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: RgrF
Date: April 13, 2020 11:34AM
As Peter mentions above they are changing or evolving their AI model. A good bit of the information they gather (like prescription meds) would seem to be for future use since it's not currently factored in.

I'm at what sounds like an ESPN documentary: 30 - 30.
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Michael
Date: April 13, 2020 11:46AM
Risk of catching: 26%
Risk of dying: 2.084%
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: testcase
Date: April 13, 2020 11:53AM
We all gotta go sometime. old fogey smiley
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: TheCaber
Date: April 13, 2020 01:39PM
The long-term risk of catching CoVID-19 is 100% ; there is no documented natural immunity (yet).
And, there is no available vaccine to provide immunity.

The short-term risk is what is calculated and displayed.
The survivability as displayed is a short-term value.

The long-term survivability is (100 - "mortality risk if infected")%


I just (re-)took the quiz

Survival Probability
Infection Risk 31%
Mortality Risk If Infected 19.437%
Survival Probability 93.975%

I am in the low-risk band for catching CoVID19
I am in the highest risk band for dying (age, hypertension, obesity)

If the healthcare system is saturated with patients, I will likely not survive past triage.

I could be wrong, though.



=TC
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: neophyte
Date: April 13, 2020 04:14PM
So Mortality Risk and Survival Probability are not inversely related? I.e., 100 - (Mortality Risk) does not = Survival Probability ?
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: April 13, 2020 04:35PM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Sarcany
It'd be nice if they had some explanations.

My mortality risk just jumped by 500%.

They do -- here it is: [www.covid19survivalcalculator.com]

I'm looking for what changed in the last week.



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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 13, 2020 05:38PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Sarcany
It'd be nice if they had some explanations.

My mortality risk just jumped by 500%.

They do -- here it is: [www.covid19survivalcalculator.com]

I'm looking for what changed in the last week.

Good question, I wondered about that too, I'm guessing it's the better understanding of things like risk factors such as age, pre-existing conditions, etc.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: Rolando
Date: April 13, 2020 05:43PM
Youch!!!
Now at 71% chance of catching it
10.9 % chance of dying!



San Antonio, TX (in the old city)


"All that is required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
“Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." - Eli Weisel

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: JoeM
Date: April 13, 2020 06:29PM
Infection Risk
We estimate you have a 27% chance
of catching COVID-19.

You are in the lowest risk band for catching COVID-19

Mortality Risk
If infected we estimate you have a 18.741% chance
of dying from COVID-19.

You are in the highest risk band for dying from COVID-19

Moral of the story: Don’t get old.old fogey smiley



JoeM
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: TheCaber
Date: April 13, 2020 06:35PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Sarcany
It'd be nice if they had some explanations.

My mortality risk just jumped by 500%.

They do -- here it is: [www.covid19survivalcalculator.com]

I'm looking for what changed in the last week.

database has grown
20200405 master_database.csv 44MB
20200413 master_database.csv 106MB

If the database consists only of info from the online users, then everything is suspect.
There are no veracity checks, and the contributions are self-selected (not necessarily a random sampling).



=TC
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Re: Yikes. Remember the "calculate your odds of survival" website?
Posted by: DavidS
Date: April 14, 2020 12:48PM
75% chance of catching it (healthcare worker)
1% chance of dying from it (makes me feel better)
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