... Invest 99L, for some reason, the NHC is only giving it a 50% chance of development, while on the news tonight, they just upgraded it to 80%. Where it goes from there...



Texas and Louisiana folks might want to pay attention.

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

Yeah not going to make any comments on this one. Good luck.

'tis the season

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Steve G.
'tis the season

Unfortunately, yes. The big problem is the really warm Gulf water ... currently 85oF in the Southern Gulf, 87oF along our and Texas' coast.

Current models bring it RIGHT at New Orleans ... though it could make a turn anywhere. Hopefully it doesn't strengthen too much before it hits us, and we just get a TS rather than a Cat 1.

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

Peter,

Looks like it's headed our way. Forecast image Sunday at 1PM.

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flareslow
Peter,

Looks like it's headed our way. Forecast image Sunday at 1PM.

Ugh.

On the plus side, at least I don't think it'll have time to strengthen much beyond a Cat 1.



(image should auto-update)

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

Ugh. Local news is saying it could develop into either a 2 or even a 3...

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

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PeterB


(image should auto-update)

You can auto-update this one with a Sharpie.

Current track and prediction:



Was Invest 99L, now TD9, will become Hurricane Irma.

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

Got a Sharpie?

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Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.

Now predicted to be a hair shy of a Cat 3. Ugh.

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Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)

Ugh is right Peter, all that hot water is not a good thing. I don’t know what the atmospherics look like at that point, if it’s conducive I wouldn’t be shocked at a Cat 5.

The Louisana coast seems to be a magnet for storms, this is the third to come ashore at that point of land.

of course, everything is already in tatters from the last two, so the property damage could be minimal. I just hope people get out of the path, this is potentially far stronger than the earlier ones.

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“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias

Just upgraded U.S. landfall forecast to Cat 3.

FYI, some of the more educated talk out there indicates we should not fixate on the exact forecast track for now. They will have a better idea after tonight‘s model runs, but for now anyone from the upper Texas coast to the western Florida panhandle should be concerned. Particularly there won’t be the usual several days to prepare for the storm, and not only will it be likely a major hurricane but a large one at that.

If it keeps moving at its current speed, we will be better off. There will be less time for the wind to move water through the Rigolets and into Lake Pontchartrain. That was one of the factors with Katrina - it stalled in the Gulf south of the coast and piled water into the lake.This one will raise the lake, but if it keeps moving, the effects will be lessened. The constriction of the Rigolets helps with that.