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15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: RgrF
Date: September 05, 2021 01:03AM


Rather than trying to distinguish between types of deaths, The Economist’s approach is to count all of them. The standard method of tracking changes in total mortality is “excess deaths”. This number is the gap between how many people died in a given region during a given time period, regardless of cause, and how many deaths would have been expected if a particular circumstance (such as a natural disaster or disease outbreak) had not occurred. Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 4.6m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 15.2m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 9.3m and 18.1m additional deaths.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: kj
Date: September 05, 2021 03:12AM
The economist does a phenomenal job with their “data journalism”. They have a newsletter that goes in more depth on how they do stuff, and it’s great. The reality those reveal is not so great, of course.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: space-time
Date: September 05, 2021 08:45AM
to get around the email/paywall

[outline.com]
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: Will Collier
Date: September 05, 2021 04:03PM
It's a lot more than that. They're including without any revision China's ludicrous claim of 5,000 deaths.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 06, 2021 01:37AM
Quote
RgrF



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 06, 2021 01:41AM
Quote
Will Collier
It's a lot more than that. They're including without any revision China's ludicrous claim of 5,000 deaths.

Yup, China knew early on to adjust its all-deaths rate.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: macphanatic
Date: September 07, 2021 12:30PM
Quote
Speedy
Quote
Will Collier
It's a lot more than that. They're including without any revision China's ludicrous claim of 5,000 deaths.

Yup, China knew early on to adjust its all-deaths rate.

Anyone who believes anything released by the Peoples Republic of China is gullible.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: RgrF
Date: September 07, 2021 12:42PM
That applies to most governments, it's really just a matter of degree. Numbers coming out of Mass. are probably more reliable than numbers coming out of Miss.
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Re: 15,200,000 dead from COVID - with 95% confidence - The Economist
Posted by: Bill in NC
Date: September 07, 2021 06:49PM
Quote
macphanatic
Quote
Speedy
Quote
Will Collier
It's a lot more than that. They're including without any revision China's ludicrous claim of 5,000 deaths.

Yup, China knew early on to adjust its all-deaths rate.

Anyone who believes anything released by the Peoples Republic of China is gullible.

Still zero deaths from COVID-19 in their country, according to the government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea!



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/07/2021 06:50PM by Bill in NC.
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