I have a colleague (Mac user) that spent most of his life in the military (now in his 60s), who often makes what I'd categorize as oversimplifications to complex issues. His latest is that the proposed increased in Social Security benefits (a higher than normal 9%) will be a major cause for inflation.

Ok, fair enough; increases like that probably won't help lower inflation. But my layman guess is that most increases in government spending point the needle towards inflation, not away from it. But that would include military spending, government salaries and stop signs.

I would love an educated economics response back to his finger pointing on the SS increase, that gives a more balanced response. He uses a lot of $10 words, so any $20 words tossed in there would be an extra bonus.

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M1 2020 Mac mini (16G 2T) • Sonoma 14.x • Dual 27" Dell S2722QC monitors • M2 2022 13" MBAir (512G 16G) •

You’re wasting your time.

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Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.

How about my neighbor making up a business (it was a business in his family in the 1960s) and getting $350k in PPP money which he and his brother used to pay $45k over sticker for a couple of dumb brand new trucks? So now the price of a new truck is ... wait for it ... $45k over sticker.

Seriously I know of 4-5 people who defrauded PPP for anywhere from $60-400k.

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chopper
How about my neighbor making up a business (it was a business in his family in the 1960s) and getting $350k in PPP money which he and his brother used to pay $45k over sticker for a couple of dumb brand new trucks? So now the price of a new truck is ... wait for it ... $45k over sticker.

Seriously I know of 4-5 people who defrauded PPP for anywhere from $60-400k.

Yeah, it just blows my mind that people would behave like this. But then again, maybe it shouldn't. I remember my business qualified for the PPP money, but I abstained because I didn't need it. I know a few other resellers who abstained as well. But I know some that did avail it. I don't know what to say, but I guess we're digressing from tuqqer's original question.

Yep. It’s old people on pensions that are driving up prices.

most increases in government spending point the needle towards inflation, not away from it

This. The increase in Social Security for next year is based on the cost of living increase, i.e., inflation, this year.

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Disclaimer: This post is checked for correct spelling, punctuation, and grammar. Any attempts at humor are solely the responsibility of the author and bear no claim that any and all readers will approve or appreciate said attempt at humor.
My name is DP, and I approve this message.

"Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime."- Lavrentiy Beria

The problem with current inflation is that it is a worldwide, not US, problem that has been caused by the drying up of supply chains during Covid, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and excess profit-taking by giant corporations which are riding the easy price increases they can get away with due to those dried up supply chains (a very simple demonstration of the supply/demand/price equation. Nothing that the US government could do would have much of an impact on this problem. Section 2 of this article by the former US Secretary of Labor summarizes this succinctly: [www.theguardian.com]

Also, I think the SS COLA increase is baked into the law and is not something that any of our leaders could change without a wholesale change of the law, which is highly unlikely to occur given the Republicans desire to get rid of social security altogether and the Democratic desire to protect it. .

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"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/16/2022 07:18PM by davester.

Anyone claiming that inflation is due to a specific US policy hasn't taken a look at the rest of the world. Spoiler - inflation is a global problem right now.

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But the US is still the top of the heap-precariously, yes-but the old saying of when the US gets the sniffles, the rest of the world gets the flu. The Russian invasion of Ukraine really only hurts (other than Ukraine, of course!) the Europeans who did side deals with Putin for their energy needs. Supply chain issues were nothing that anyone foresaw and it's really easy to blame greedy companies but you try running your own business with thousands of employees to consider...

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Disclaimer: This post is checked for correct spelling, punctuation, and grammar. Any attempts at humor are solely the responsibility of the author and bear no claim that any and all readers will approve or appreciate said attempt at humor.
My name is DP, and I approve this message.

"Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime."- Lavrentiy Beria

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DP
... it's really easy to blame greedy companies but you try running your own business with thousands of employees to consider...

Most of the giant corporations are not struggling at all and have been generating massive profits due to their ability to raise prices and not costs. I believe that the record profits being posted disprove your point.

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"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/16/2022 07:36PM by davester.

Inflation is at a 40 year high, corporate profits are at a 50 year high... related?

About 1.1 million people in the US died unexpectedly early in the last 20 months. We are still working out the kinks of a crippled supply chain, wages that had stagnated for 10 years, and high fuel prices that are responsible for record oil company profits. There are huge numbers of people suffering from climate change disasters too.

As davester said, it's not just the US. The UK could be getting it's second new prime minister this year due in large part to inflation. In a quick scan of the G20 countries, Canada is the only one that has their CPI currently headed down from a peak of just over 8%.

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In tha 360. MRF User Map

It's a fair point.

Keep in mind that the Fed is essentially trying to bring down inflation right now by increasing unemployment and putting more people on public welfare. Higher interest rates = higher payments to big banks and less money to pay wages.

Less money in the hands of the plebeians means less spending means less inflation.

And only a few million people end up out on the streets.

It's a win-win!

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/16/2022 08:45PM by Tiangou.

1. Price-wage spirals occur very, very rarely. That's not what's going on now.
2. The cause of inflation right now isn't too much money; it's the increase in price of certain goods primarily due to (a) Putin's war, (b) increased shipping costs, and (c) increased housing prices. The SS inflation increase will not affect any of those.
3. Your friend has an out of date idea of how inflation works.

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chopper
How about my neighbor making up a business (it was a business in his family in the 1960s) and getting $350k in PPP money which he and his brother used to pay $45k over sticker for a couple of dumb brand new trucks? So now the price of a new truck is ... wait for it ... $45k over sticker.

Seriously I know of 4-5 people who defrauded PPP for anywhere from $60-400k.

This happened a lot. My wife and I know a defunct dairy farm that got $31,900 for a dairy farm that no longer exists.

I know one company that got almost $2 million and now suddenly everything they have is paid including their home and money to put their kids through college. Two and half years ago they were going to lose everything.

I'm amazed at the number of people I've looked up that are diehard anti gov't handouts that took big money during this and now have been forgiven of their loan.

Our son tried to get some help through this and they wouldn't even talk to him yet I've found numerous single employ businesses that got money.

Check out some of your friends and neighbors and such.
[www.federalpay.org]

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Grateful11




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/16/2022 10:58PM by Grateful11.

Thanks for the link to the searchable database. I was surprised by the number of 1 owner businesses in my area that received $20k to $30k grants

inflation 'round the world

as bad as it is and will prolly get, see what doodoo others are in.

though I can't understand why the price of old Porsches keep going up with the abundant supply of same.
gimme an equally priced Ferrari.
Or even a new overpriced Audi.

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!#$@@$#!

never do yesterday or today what you can put off til tomorrow or next year.

<<My wife and I know a defunct dairy farm that got $31,900 for a dairy farm that no longer exists.>>>

This is exactly the business that the two local brothers used to fleece PPP out of $$$$. The farm has not been a working farm for decades and consists of one small wooden shed. Suddenly it's a dairy again and they get $$$$. All forgiven.

We need trickle up... An increase in base prices should result in an increased tax rate on the wealthy and corporations.

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chopper
<<My wife and I know a defunct dairy farm that got $31,900 for a dairy farm that no longer exists.>>>

This is exactly the business that the two local brothers used to fleece PPP out of $$$$. The farm has not been a working farm for decades and consists of one small wooden shed. Suddenly it's a dairy again and they get $$$$. All forgiven.

They must not have had to show any proof of payroll or income or pretty much anything for that matter. This dairy I mentioned has been out for a good 20 years and they're big time Repu.......

Guess our son should've filed for the dairy here that shutdown on 2003. Like I said he went to the local Farm Credit joint and they said no to his beef cattle operation, he should've went straight to a bank.

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Grateful11




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/17/2022 01:08PM by Grateful11.