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Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 05, 2024 09:04AM
Still too early to tell, but appears to be headed towards Tampa/St. Pete on a dead on approach to central Florida, intensity probably Cat 4 (Cat 5 is not off the table). That area already got hit with a bad storm surge from Helene. Can't win for trying.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/2024 01:38AM by Carnos Jax.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Acer
Date: October 05, 2024 10:06AM
Image posted 10:26 CDT. I don't know if the image I chose is self-updating. Looks like it's intentionally seeking to grab the parts of Florida Helene missed. Unlikely to punch into the unsuspecting interior like Helene, though.





Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/2024 10:09AM by Acer.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 05, 2024 12:40PM
Now being called Milton
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: October 05, 2024 01:19PM

Milton!
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: October 05, 2024 01:21PM

Oh, that Milton...
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: lost in space
Date: October 05, 2024 02:59PM
I'd love to see DeSantis squirm while getting FEMA aid from the Biden administration. OK. That's it. Hope to keep it on this side.


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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: rz
Date: October 05, 2024 05:01PM
I’m dead center (no pun intended!) in the cone. About 90 miles inland, but if it hits Tampa as a cat 3, it’ll probably still be a cat-2 when it passes here.

We had Charlie hit us dead-on in 2004. Was about 90 mph when it passed overhead. Lost power for 5 days. Had a microburst touch down two houses away that thankfully went between houses for 3 blocks. Gettin’ the generator out and ready tomorrow.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: lost in space
Date: October 05, 2024 05:11PM
Quote
rz
I’m dead center (no pun intended!) in the cone. About 90 miles inland, but if it hits Tampa as a cat 3, it’ll probably still be a cat-2 when it passes here.

We had Charlie hit us dead-on in 2004. Was about 90 mph when it passed overhead. Lost power for 5 days. Had a microburst touch down two houses away that thankfully went between houses for 3 blocks. Gettin’ the generator out and ready tomorrow.

Good luck wishes headed your way.


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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: RgrF
Date: October 05, 2024 07:23PM
Good luck with this one. Looks like Florida is positioned to be storm central for the foreseeable future.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: S. Pupp
Date: October 05, 2024 07:26PM
Quote
rz
I’m dead center (no pun intended!) in the cone. About 90 miles inland, but if it hits Tampa as a cat 3, it’ll probably still be a cat-2 when it passes here.

We had Charlie hit us dead-on in 2004. Was about 90 mph when it passed overhead. Lost power for 5 days. Had a microburst touch down two houses away that thankfully went between houses for 3 blocks. Gettin’ the generator out and ready tomorrow.

As someone who had a bad week due to Helene, I sympathize with your plight, and wish for the storm to leave your town untouched.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Speedy
Date: October 05, 2024 08:16PM
Expect another Cat 4.


Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Spock
Date: October 05, 2024 10:16PM
Quote
Speedy
Expect another Cat 4.

Yep, the water in the gulf is still very warm.

Oh and I'm just south of the mouse.


Comedy Central: Best news channel that isn't a news channel.

Fox News: Best comedy channel that isn't a comedy channel.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 05, 2024 10:59PM
Quote
S. Pupp
Quote
rz
I’m dead center (no pun intended!) in the cone. About 90 miles inland, but if it hits Tampa as a cat 3, it’ll probably still be a cat-2 when it passes here.

We had Charlie hit us dead-on in 2004. Was about 90 mph when it passed overhead. Lost power for 5 days. Had a microburst touch down two houses away that thankfully went between houses for 3 blocks. Gettin’ the generator out and ready tomorrow.

As someone who had a bad week due to Helene, I sympathize with your plight, and wish for the storm to leave your town untouched.

Missed the fact you were affected….best of luck and wishes SP, hopefully things get back to normal pleasantly faster.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/2024 11:01PM by Carnos Jax.
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: PeterB
Date: October 06, 2024 08:18AM
Please take this one seriously -- they're now saying likely Cat. 3, possibly higher.

[www.nytimes.com]



Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 06, 2024 10:06AM
Yup, even Cat 5 is not off the table.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 06, 2024 10:17AM
This is a small storm, so that means it could intensify rapidly. And given the uncertainty over how it’s interactions with other weather elements approaching the area, there’s a wider than normal range for intensity. It really could be anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 5. It all just depends on how a lot of things play out timing wise. People need to watch this thing around the clock.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 06, 2024 04:19PM
Latest NHC guidance says Cat 4, with Cat 5 on the table. Track forecast currently south of Tampa Bay, which otherwise would’ve been catastrophic surge over a large area. Intensity forecast calls for weakening to Cat 3 at landfall, still a major hurricane. However this snippet in the latest forecast discussion seems ominous:

Quote
NHC Milton Forecast Discussion #6 400 PM CDT
….the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 06, 2024 04:21PM
Helene was a large storm, which is why its effects were so widespread in Florida.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 07, 2024 08:44AM
Now 150 mph, just 7 mph short of Cat 5. But should weaken to Cat 3 before making landfall. Also current track looks like it’ll spare Tampa Bay from a catastrophic storm surge.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 07, 2024 10:24AM
Now forecasting to be a Cat 5 (currently just 2 mph short at 155 mph). Max forecast intensity is calling for 165 mph, but weakening to Cat 3 at landfall.
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Re: Potentially dangerous soon to be Hurricane Milton headed towards central Florida
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: October 07, 2024 10:42AM
Wow, now a Cat 5 at 160 mph
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