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The wrong question Date: September 21, 2012 10:57AM |
The blogger who posted this graph titled the article with the graph, "The poll result that explains the election." Of course, saying that kind of thing is pretty much guaranteed to be at least a bit of hyperbole, but it strikes me that this graph really does explain quite a bit of the most important dynamic of the election:
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/21/2012 10:59AM by Ted King.
Quote
Washington has been a bit perplexed by President Obama’s small but persistent lead in the polls. His administration would seem to fail the “Are you better off than you were four years ago” text. And presidents who fail that test lose, right?
But perhaps that’s the wrong question. We focus on the question “Are you better off than you were four years ago” because we assume voters aren’t sophisticated enough to vote based on the right question, which is “are you better off than you would have been if the other party’s candidate had won the presidency four years ago?”
The conventional wisdom: Voters don’t do counterfactuals. “It could have been worse” is a losing message. That’s been the Romney campaign’s theory of the case, certainly, and many in the media have bought it. But perhaps we’re not giving voters enough credit.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/21/2012 10:59AM by Ted King.
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