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Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 05:23PM
I guess I have to take back all the mean things I've said about Jill Stein.
wiggle smiley
Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is calling for a recount in three key states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — and has launched an effort to raise money to pay for the recount.

“After a divisive and painful presidential race, in which foreign agents hacked into party databases, private email servers, and voter databases in certain states, many Americans are wondering if our election results are reliable,” Stein said in a statement on her campaign website.

“That’s why the unexpected results of the election and reported anomalies need to be investigated before the 2016 presidential election is certified.

[www.bostonglobe.com]



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: hal
Date: November 23, 2016 05:38PM
how much did the dems pay her?
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 05:47PM
Want to Know if the Election was Hacked? Look at the Ballots
Phorum will not let me quote this article no matter what I do. ??
[medium.com]



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 05:48PM
Quote
hal
how much did the dems pay her?

I don't think she likes Trump any more than I do. But I will say, having Stein do it instead of Clinton is kind of great.



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: hal
Date: November 23, 2016 05:54PM
the right would be howling if it was Clinton that called for a recount
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: wave rider
Date: November 23, 2016 06:13PM
Quote
$tevie
Want to Know if the Election was Hacked? Look at the Ballots
Phorum will not let me quote this article no matter what I do. ??
[medium.com]

Thanks for the link, good read. Wonder where Stein is collecting funds?



=wr=
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 06:19PM
Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: November 23, 2016 06:30PM
Quote
hal
the right would be howling if it was Clinton that called for a recount

They would really howl if Hillary ends up as president. It's great that Jill is doing it. Hail Marys work sometimes.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: November 23, 2016 06:59PM
It won't happen. Money and effort, and often the effort involved pales compared to the remuneration.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 07:10PM
Stein has already raised over a million dollars.



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: hal
Date: November 23, 2016 07:22PM
once hollywood hears about it, they'll have all of the money they need
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 23, 2016 07:26PM
They'll just recount the same ballots. It's not like they will look for fraud, Russian hackers or anything else.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 07:29PM
Quote
Speedy
They'll just recount the same ballots. It's not like they will look for fraud, Russian hackers or anything else.

The difference is that they count paper ballots instead of relying on the software's totals.



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: gabester
Date: November 23, 2016 08:02PM
Quote
$tevie
Quote
Speedy
They'll just recount the same ballots. It's not like they will look for fraud, Russian hackers or anything else.

The difference is that they count paper ballots instead of relying on the software's totals.

And should they start to find any discrepancies, that will call into question the validity of voting machines that lack a paper trail.

Tracking election results would seem to be the perfect application for some blockchain-type information encoding without compromising anonymity!

But it would be even better if Gary Johnson joined in this request. It's in his interest if there's a finding that ballots were undercounted or not counted.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 23, 2016 08:20PM
It would be more than interesting if Stein and Johnson were to undo the disaster that was this election. .
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 23, 2016 10:09PM
$1.9M raised.

Looks like it may happen.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: beagledave
Date: November 23, 2016 10:22PM
FWIW, Nate Silver seems to be calling BS on some of this.

[twitter.com]

Run a regression on Wisc. counties with >=50K people, and you find that Clinton improved more in counties with only paper ballots. HOWEVER:...the effect COMPLETELY DISAPPEARS once you control for race and education levels, the key factors in predicting vote shifts this year. Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 23, 2016 10:43PM
Quote
beagledave
FWIW, Nate Silver seems to be calling BS on some of this.

[twitter.com]

Run a regression on Wisc. counties with >=50K people, and you find that Clinton improved more in counties with only paper ballots. HOWEVER:...the effect COMPLETELY DISAPPEARS once you control for race and education levels, the key factors in predicting vote shifts this year. Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.

I predict there is at least a 15% chance that Nate Silver is entirely under-estimating the chance that some counties have had their vote totals manually adjusted.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 23, 2016 10:57PM
So Nate Silver thinks we should just forget about audits and let him crunch data for us instead? Is he still trying to pretend he knows any more than anybody else about this election?



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: pdq
Date: November 24, 2016 04:07AM
Yeah, he didn't do so good. I was surprised that he tried to take the "well, we showed the race closer than other people" (ie Huffington Post) tack after the election.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 24, 2016 10:22AM
Going to happen. She's shooting for 4.5m to covert court fees in case she finds bogus counts.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 24, 2016 11:09AM
Quote
$tevie
So Nate Silver thinks we should just forget about audits and let him crunch data for us instead? Is he still trying to pretend he knows any more than anybody else about this election?

I like Nate but he has to cover his credibility. Since he was funded for 538, he's become a CEO with a staff that depends on him. His methodology was designed this year to protect his organization. The last election he put it all on the line and hit the jackpot.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/24/2016 11:10AM by vision63.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: hal
Date: November 24, 2016 12:32PM
I am so done with Nate Silver. He can push his numbers around all he likes, but it's just pushing numbers around afaic.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 24, 2016 12:40PM
Quote
hal
I am so done with Nate Silver. He can push his numbers around all he likes, but it's just pushing numbers around afaic.

There is a method to his madness. But what made him famous was getting every state right in 2012 when all the other polls were not as reliable. Now he basically monitors progress as he goes along. Had he flat projected that Clinton would lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin earlier he'd be being bowed down to. But he didn't. He went on with the silly "chance of winning" deal.

I don't think it's his fault that we perceived that he would be some sort of savant. He's a numbers man that polls the polls for the most part.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 24, 2016 01:14PM
I'm not writing Nate off forever but as far as I'm concerned he needs to stop trying to be relevent to 2016.



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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: gabester
Date: November 24, 2016 10:07PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
hal
I am so done with Nate Silver. He can push his numbers around all he likes, but it's just pushing numbers around afaic.

I don't think it's his fault that we perceived that he would be some sort of savant. He's a numbers man that polls the polls for the most part.

I'd really like to see the numbers on the likelihood of this specific electoral outcome. Especially since Trump managed to hold FL and flip PA, which were the two things he absolutely needed to do to win. Especially given the unprecedented November surprise of Comey's non-email revelations.

If nothing else I'd like to see some real analysis of the effectiveness of voter suppression in state. Voter turnout was lower - was it because people didn't - or COULDN'T! - come to the polls?
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 24, 2016 10:36PM
Pennsylvania's Voter ID requirement was limited to just first time voters and is several years old. Originally it was written for all voters back in...2012 I think but partially struck down, if memory serves. Our Republican legislature did not spend much energy trying to educate the general public on the final state of the requirement. Personally, I thought it did apply to everyone now until I saw the typewritten notice at the polling place.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 24, 2016 10:42PM
Quote
$tevie
I'm not writing Nate off forever but as far as I'm concerned he needs to stop trying to be relevent to 2016.

I agree. He should hush up for now.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: davester
Date: November 25, 2016 12:47PM
I don't understand all the Nate bashing.He never said that he was doing anything but crunching the existing poll numbers. He said two things:

1) The numbers showed that Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of winning. In statistics that is a very large chance.

2) He said numerous times that since most of the polls were very close, polling errors could throw his calculations off significantly.

This is exactly what we saw. The polls were erroneous. Whether this is because people lied to the pollsters because they were embarrassed to be voting for a chump, or whether the pollsters picked the wrong populations to poll is unknown. It's the people that operate the polls who need to take lessons from this, not the poll aggregator (Nate).



"In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." (1987) -- Carl Sagan
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 25, 2016 10:48PM
Nate's comments about the recount sound hollow. I like Nate Silver in general.

But the tool he's using to say there is no need for a recount DOES NOT DETECT THE COUNTY WITH 1500 TRUMP VOTE OVERCOUNT.

Nate - for someone who believes in science, you need to let the data come in and then worry about whether you are right,
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 26, 2016 08:18AM
All they will find is a couple hundred votes that were recorded in error because some county clerk, in haste, transposed some numbers and entered 791 instead of 719, etc. These errors tend to balance out over the millions of ballots cast but likely will result in a very tiny change. The Trump victory was the real thing with Trumpers really turning out to throw a monkey wrench into the works and Clintonites not turning out.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 27, 2016 03:00PM
Quote
Speedy
All they will find is a couple hundred votes that were recorded in error because some county clerk, in haste, transposed some numbers and entered 791 instead of 719, etc. These errors tend to balance out over the millions of ballots cast but likely will result in a very tiny change. The Trump victory was the real thing with Trumpers really turning out to throw a monkey wrench into the works and Clintonites not turning out.

Maybe.

But I'm very surprised at how the Dem votes were far more often to be miscounted during the Franken recount in 2008

[en.wikipedia.org]

I bet this will result in Clinton losing Wisconsin by fewer votes.
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Re: Jill Stein seeks recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsyvania
Posted by: $tevie
Date: November 27, 2016 05:22PM
That now Trump is tweeting about how he only lost the popular vote because illegals voted, you'd think he'd welcome any recounts possible just to prove his point. smiling smiley



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