Quote

The NYT/Siena polling — which is framed as a look at the state of the 2020 race exactly one year before Election Day — indicates the Electoral College advantage that landed Trump in the White House (despite him receiving nearly 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton) is still very much in play. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren in six battleground states that Trump won in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina — Trump is still extremely competitive.

Trump is broadly unpopular in each of those states, with his approval rating ranging from 2 percentage points underwater in Florida to 11 percentage points underwater in Wisconsin. But the story is different when Trump matches up against the top Democratic contenders. Here’s the state-by-state breakdown, via Nate Cohn, who wrote the Times piece about the polling:

Quote

Beyond showing Biden better positioned to defeat Trump in battleground states than Sanders or Warren, the poll illustrates the “nightmare” scenario for Democrats outlined by David Wasserman in a July piece for MSNBC — one in which Trump loses the Electoral College by as many as 5 million votes, but still prevails in the Electoral College. To put it succinctly, no matter how much the Democratic nominee runs up the score in states like California and New York, it won’t matter if they can’t win in a handful of the aforementioned states that Trump won in 2016. And as of now, only Biden is positioned to do that — and even in that case his edge over Trump is within the margin of error.

What explains Trump’s enduring appeal in battleground states? According to the NYT/Siena poll — his overwhelming popularity with white voters who don’t have college degrees, which is just as strong now as it was three years ago.

Quote

Cohn writes that “In contrast to recent national surveys, the Times/Siena polls find that the president’s lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016 ... The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far.”

Democrats, of course, dominated the 2018 midterms and took control of the House of Representatives by winning 40 seats nationwide. But Cohn’s piece indicates that those results aren’t necessarily predictive of what will happen in the presidential race next year, since “[n]early two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents.”

Quote
AllGold
Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. The GOP has gerrymandered the @#$%& out of the state and there were reports of extremely long lines and long wait times in heavily Democratic Detroit. Add in the overall Democratic apathy created mainly by the russians. I really don't see Trump winning Michigan in 2020.

Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Not voting for a female candidate is an echo of just one of the reasons why Bernie would have beaten Cheeto when Clinton couldn't.

Don't assume it's Bernie voters not voting for Warren unless you have parsed the poll results to prove that. While it's one of the first times recently that they had a reasonable size poll sample, the poll results are PDF images (not text) split across eight different documents which makes it very difficult to try to wrangle the data.

Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

Quote
Filliam H. Muffman

Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

Quote
vision63

Quote
Filliam H. Muffman

Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

You talked about it, you didn't "cover" it. People choose to stay home every election and they will again. More than 10,000 voted for that Jill Stein in Michigan.

Quote
RgrF
Elections have had third and sometimes fourth party candidates going back as far as anyone can recall. Ever hear of Harold Stassen?

Quote
RgrF

Quote
vision63

Quote
Filliam H. Muffman

Quote
vision63
Then Bernie should have beat her if he's so popular.

I have covered that a few times. You still complain about her losing Michigan by 10,000 votes, when 480,000 people chose to stay home or make a throw-away vote.

You talked about it, you didn't "cover" it. People choose to stay home every election and they will again. More than 10,000 voted for that Jill Stein in Michigan.

This is apparently something new for you. Elections have had third and sometimes fourth party candidates going back as far as anyone can recall. Ever hear of Harold Stassen?

Quote
Ombligo

Quote
AllGold
Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. The GOP has gerrymandered the @#$%& out of the state and there were reports of extremely long lines and long wait times in heavily Democratic Detroit. Add in the overall Democratic apathy created mainly by the russians. I really don't see Trump winning Michigan in 2020.

Today's NYT/Sienna Polls for Michigan:
Biden 45, Trump 44
Warren 40, Trump 45
Sanders 46, Trump 42

Other battleground state polls at: [www.realclearpolitics.com]