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Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 13, 2020 10:56AM
[www.technologyreview.com]

... this is not a new result, but confirming some previous studies. Could maybe explain reinfection, if that's what's happening.




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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: sekker
Date: July 13, 2020 11:11AM
This is the truly frightening prospect - meaning a vaccine would not stick, even if we were to develop one.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: July 13, 2020 11:17AM
This is what we do with influenza - you have to get a shot every year. You can get the flu over and over. And still many will die. That could be our future with COVID-19. We'll never get to zero cases and deaths but we could have a much smaller number than now.

It's still very early days with COVID-19. I think the best thing until we have more facts is follow all the precautions even if you've been infected before.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: sekker
Date: July 13, 2020 11:20AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
This is what we do with influenza - you have to get a shot every year. You can get the flu over and over. And still many will die. That could be our future with COVID-19. We'll never get to zero cases and deaths but we could have a much smaller number than now.

It's still very early days with COVID-19. I think the best thing until we have more facts is follow all the precautions even if you've been infected before.

In the US and Brazil, we will never get to zero cases thanks to the complete screwup. But that might mean we will all be pariah visiting other places in the world.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: July 13, 2020 12:12PM
Quote
sekker
... that might mean we will all be pariah visiting other places in the world.

Yes, the travel and airline industry involving US citizens will be zero for at least another six months, maybe a year. The only possible thing to save it will the near miracle of a vaccine that gives 40% to 66% protection.



In tha 360. MRF User Map



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/13/2020 12:13PM by Filliam H. Muffman.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 13, 2020 12:21PM
I wonder if this would argue in favor of the "whole inactivated virus" type vaccine I was suggesting in the other thread? (I understood that it's really hard to completely inactivate a virus, or that inactivated virus might not present itself as well as an antigen... but on the other hand ... by exposing the body to the entire virus rather than just a single or a couple of proteins, I would think you'd increase the chance of the antibody repertoire being more extensive...)

Also, doesn't this argue that we really should be looking at things like extended immunity in other animals? I posted here awhile back that they're looking at an alpaca ... [www.sciencedaily.com] ... also, they've seen extended protection in at least some animal models, with some vaccines: [www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: July 13, 2020 12:36PM
I've read that there are over 90 different vaccines under development for COVID. It seems likely that there will be multiple effective vaccines, some will be better for specific groups (older folks, people with pre-existing conditions, children, etc).

Let's hope we have some good choices because it's not guaranteed we'll have any at all

Inactivated vaccines usually require multiple doses and boosters; practical in some settings but not all.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: July 13, 2020 01:07PM
The comparison to the current influenza vaccine is a great one. We get a variety of vaccinations tied up in that little tube, and that that handles the major mutations coming from the Pacific Rim. Asia and Africa are the incubators for many dread diseases and pending pandemics.

The amount of medical surveillance that is applied to those areas is amazing, and it depends on transparency from governments and organizations. And nations that are indulging in COVD-19 blame games are... well, their citizens are getting ill and dying in job lots.

Vote or Die !
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 13, 2020 01:49PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
I've read that there are over 90 different vaccines under development for COVID. It seems likely that there will be multiple effective vaccines, some will be better for specific groups (older folks, people with pre-existing conditions, children, etc).

Let's hope we have some good choices because it's not guaranteed we'll have any at all

Inactivated vaccines usually require multiple doses and boosters; practical in some settings but not all.

I think we're currently over 200 candidates?: [www.telegraph.co.uk]

A good comparison chart: [www.nytimes.com]
(unfortunately behind a paywall, but ... wow, the Chinese already have one approved for limited human use?)




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: sekker
Date: July 13, 2020 04:16PM
The problem with the flu comparison is that we KEEP our flu antibodies circulating, it's the virus that changes. One reason the flu is not so completely terrible from year to year is that prior exposure offers some protection.

It is also why kids can die from some flu variants - they do not have ANY protection.

In the case of coronaviruses, we are seeing the SAME virus be able to re-infect patients because our memory for that exposure is getting lost in our immune system.

Totally nightmare scenario, as I said.

The only, and I mean only, saving grace and that unlike some flu viruses, kids naive to COVID-19 are currently not being hammered by COVID-19.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: July 13, 2020 04:35PM
But we're not 100% sure that "re-infection" with COVID-19 is happening, correct?
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: July 13, 2020 06:04PM
Quote
PeterB
...wow, the Chinese already have one approved for limited human use?)

At least two Chinese groups working with inactivated viruses are now in phase III.

...And they have so few cases in China these days that they had to move the testing to Europe and the Persian Gulf to meet the minimum thresholds for exposure.

We suck.



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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: July 13, 2020 06:06PM
Quote
PeterB
[www.technologyreview.com]

... this is not a new result, but confirming some previous studies. Could maybe explain reinfection, if that's what's happening.

Maybe, but antibodies are not the whole story. T-Cells... lymph... There's more to an immune-response than what we can find in the blood.



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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: sekker
Date: July 13, 2020 07:16PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
PeterB
[www.technologyreview.com]

... this is not a new result, but confirming some previous studies. Could maybe explain reinfection, if that's what's happening.

Maybe, but antibodies are not the whole story. T-Cells... lymph... There's more to an immune-response than what we can find in the blood.

Fortunately, this is true!
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 13, 2020 10:08PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
PeterB
...wow, the Chinese already have one approved for limited human use?)

At least two Chinese groups working with inactivated viruses are now in phase III.

...And they have so few cases in China these days that they had to move the testing to Europe and the Persian Gulf to meet the minimum thresholds for exposure.

We suck.

Actually, I was referring to the virus tracker, which now shows ONE vaccine (a Chinese one) approved for human use -- it is the CanSinoBio one, listed as phase II / limited human use.

And it's true that antibodies aren't the whole story, but if the lymph / T cells are in play -- and it does seem they are: [www.sciencemag.org] -- then how do we explain these apparent cases of reinfection? (Is it not reinfection, or is immune memory being lost ... as sekker suggests?)

I guess I am a little confused now, because I'd heard the same as sekker, that for the flu, our antibodies circulate for a long period... several months at least... so that'd have to be a difference between viruses.

Also ... worth mentioning, as came up for me in another thread ... in animal models, the antibodies do seem to stick around. So maybe there's something wrong with the antibody tests?




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: July 13, 2020 10:42PM
Quote
PeterB
Also ... worth mentioning, as came up for me in another thread ... in animal models, the antibodies do seem to stick around. So maybe there's something wrong with the antibody tests?

There's something wrong with relying on antibodies to determine whether someone has immunity. They don't tell the whole story.

...

Cheer up.

The original monkey studies weren't peer-reviewed and they were only tested a few weeks after initial exposure. (Hard to test for enduring immunity when the virus is only a few months old. Ask again in a couple of years. (And then a decade after that.)

OTOH, The Oxford vaccine didn't create lasting immune-response in monkeys.

So... jury is still out.

I don't have the cite, but saw a critique of the story about the guy who supposedly got reinfected. The response suggested that there were at least two very plausible explanations for this that didn't imply anything particularly bad. First, it's completely plausible and statistically sound that this guy had two false-negative tests. Second in other diseases such as measles, there is a small segment of the population that never develops immunity and this does not imply that some 99.xxx% of us will not be immune after an episode of the disease or a vaccination.

So, there's every reason to believe that this guy was an outlier, one way or another.

OTOH, there's also dengue.

Life is complicated. Viruses, too.

Keep reading. Try not to worry. It'll all come out eventually.



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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 13, 2020 11:19PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
PeterB
Also ... worth mentioning, as came up for me in another thread ... in animal models, the antibodies do seem to stick around. So maybe there's something wrong with the antibody tests?

There's something wrong with relying on antibodies to determine whether someone has immunity. They don't tell the whole story.

...

Cheer up.

The original monkey studies weren't peer-reviewed and they were only tested a few weeks after initial exposure. (Hard to test for enduring immunity when the virus is only a few months old. Ask again in a couple of years. (And then a decade after that.)

OTOH, The Oxford vaccine didn't create lasting immune-response in monkeys.

So... jury is still out.

I don't have the cite, but saw a critique of the story about the guy who supposedly got reinfected. The response suggested that there were at least two very plausible explanations for this that didn't imply anything particularly bad. First, it's completely plausible and statistically sound that this guy had two false-negative tests. Second in other diseases such as measles, there is a small segment of the population that never develops immunity and this does not imply that some 99.xxx% of us will not be immune after an episode of the disease or a vaccination.

So, there's every reason to believe that this guy was an outlier, one way or another.

OTOH, there's also dengue.

Life is complicated. Viruses, too.

Keep reading. Try not to worry. It'll all come out eventually.

Yes, I know... it'd be interesting to time travel ahead 10-20 years and see what we know.

I can believe two false negative tests, but there's also the fact that he was symptom-free that I find bothersome. I do wonder if the virus is going dormant... not unheard of for RNA viruses to do that.

And the other thing I've found bothersome about this story ... there have been other cases similar to his, just not as well publicized or documented. So he might be an outlier... or he might not.

And yes, I know antibodies don't tell the whole story. Still, it's concerning that they're apparently so short-lived in this case.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Beam Me Up Scotty
Date: July 14, 2020 10:00AM
I believe everyone, due to the highly infectious nature of this virus, will end up getting it. It's just a matter of time. You will live, die or suffer from the consequences of it.

Sorry for the rather gloomy prediction, I just think it's inevitable, much like what happened in 1918.

D & C
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Sam3
Date: July 14, 2020 10:25AM
Quote
Dazed & Confused
I believe everyone, due to the highly infectious nature of this virus, will end up getting it. It's just a matter of time. You will live, die or suffer from the consequences of it.

Sorry for the rather gloomy prediction, I just think it's inevitable, much like what happened in 1918.

D & C

I'm afraid that at this point you are correct. Early on we could have beat it, as China and Europe seem to have done. But thanks to no federal mandates it didn't happen. As Speedy said in another thread, a severe 3-4 week lockdown, like Spain did, would most likely have taken care of it and at this point in time we would have been able to do things that we long to do now.



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--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Beam Me Up Scotty
Date: July 14, 2020 10:45AM
"Early on we could have beat it, as China and Europe seem to have done..."

I respectfully disagree. It might appear that both countries have it under control but this virus will, without a doubt, flair up again. It won't take much but someone, somewhere will bring/transport this disease (unknowingly) to a 'safe' country and start the whole process over again. Yes, contact tracing will assist in the quarantine process but in this day & age you can't lock down entire countries from others unless government officials take the same China draconian measures of locking people up insides their residences.

History (1918) is bound to repeat itself but I hope I'm wrong.

D & C
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 14, 2020 11:40AM
If history repeats, NOT everyone will get this virus: [www.cdc.gov] ... about 2/3rds of the world's population never got infected.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: pdq
Date: July 14, 2020 12:05PM
Quote
Dazed & Confused
"Early on we could have beat it, as China and Europe seem to have done..."

I respectfully disagree...Yes, contact tracing will assist in the quarantine process but in this day & age you can't lock down entire countries from others unless government officials take the same China draconian measures of locking people up insides their residences.

Oddly enough, that’s what quarantine used to mean, and it was a widely used (and widely effective) means of infectious disease control. How quaint.

This is another example of the dark side of “American exceptionalism”. Not just China, but many other countries, western democracies with human rights, somehow managed this disease. Here you get yelled at and called a “Democratic pig” if you dare to ask someone to wear a mask inside in a public place.

130,000 dead and counting, with trends pointing the wrong way. How did this happen?

It’s no mystery to me.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Beam Me Up Scotty
Date: July 14, 2020 12:21PM
"If history repeats, NOT everyone will get this virus: [www.cdc.gov] ... about 2/3rds of the world's population never got infected."

A whole lot has changed since 1918 with air travel etc. How many people even owned cars? Most folks back then didn't travel more then 50 miles from their residence or as far as their horse could go in a day (round trip). Obviously flying to another country or continent was neither plausible nor possible. The entire planet is so much more interconnected now then back then.

Like I said above, I really hope I'm 100% wrong on this & somehow this virus goes away or medical science invents a vaccine or whatever it takes to slow/stop this mess. I just don't feel too hopeful about it:

Logical consequences are the scarecrows of fools and the beacons of wise men. -Thomas Huxley


D & C



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/14/2020 12:28PM by Dazed & Confused.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: PeterB
Date: July 14, 2020 12:36PM
Quote
Dazed & Confused
"If history repeats, NOT everyone will get this virus: [www.cdc.gov] ... about 2/3rds of the world's population never got infected."

A whole lot has changed since 1918 with air travel etc. How many people even owned cars? Most folks back then didn't travel more then 50 miles from their residence or as far as their horse could go in a day (round trip). Obviously flying to another country or continent was neither plausible nor possible. The entire planet is so much more interconnected now then back then.

Like I said above, I really hope I'm 100% wrong on this & somehow this virus goes away or medical science invents a vaccine or whatever it takes to slow/stop this mess. I just don't feel too hopeful about it:

Logical consequences are the scarecrows of fools and the beacons of wise men. -Thomas Huxley


D & C

I was just pointing out that, even if you think this is similar to influenza (which is correct in certain ways but incorrect in others), not everybody got the virus in 1918.

You're right that a lot has changed since 1918, but it also isn't all for the worse -- for example, with the 1918 flu, they first thought that it was caused by a bacterium rather than a virus, and ended up making a completely ineffective vaccine on that basis, causing more deaths in the process. Our science and vaccine techniques have gotten substantially better, though it appears our personal behaviors have not.

My personal feeling is that we will all have to live in a new normal with this virus for the rest of our lives, it's just a question of what that new normal will look like, and whether we'll end up with fewer or more dead before we get to that point-- which again is largely dependent on our own personal behaviors. Other countries are apparently now living in a relatively decent new normal, but whether or not we will also is up in the air at this point, thanks to a lack of leadership coming from above.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: July 14, 2020 12:37PM
John Barry, who wrote "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" and who teaches public health at Tulane, has a very good op-ed in the NY Times today.

Bottom line, he says we screwed it up the first time but have a second chance now, but we may not get a third.

[www.nytimes.com]
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: RgrF
Date: July 14, 2020 09:13PM
A whole lot has changed since 1918 with air travel etc. How many people even owned cars? Most folks back then didn't travel more then 50 miles from their residence or as far as their horse could go in a day (round trip). Obviously flying to another country or continent was neither plausible nor possible. The entire planet is so much more interconnected now then back then.

In 1918 the country was mobilizing for WWI, part of that mobilization included packing soldiers - including those who were sick - shoulder to shoulder in rail cars eventually to be loaded like cattle onto troop carriers, destination Europe.

We essentially exported the virus from the US to the rest of the world. The President Woodrow Wilson never once mentioned the epidemic in any of his public utterances, he was totally consumed by the war effort and unwilling to raise an alarm about a pandemic no one had an answer for.
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Re: Another piece to the puzzle ... antibodies might only last months
Posted by: Sam3
Date: July 15, 2020 04:00AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
John Barry, who wrote "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" and who teaches public health at Tulane, has a very good op-ed in the NY Times today.

Bottom line, he says we screwed it up the first time but have a second chance now, but we may not get a third.

[www.nytimes.com]

Unfortunately our leadership hasn't changed, therefore our second chance will never get a chance.

Where is the Democratic leadership in all this? They are way too silent. The only ones making a stink are fed-up Republicans like the Lincoln Project and the Never Trumpers. It's about time the Democrats make a stink. Where is Bloomberg and his promised millions? Once again I see the Democrats being spineless, just assuming that they will win come November. The Presidency? Biden may have a decent chance. But the Senate? Not until the Democrats wake up and start hammering the Republicans up for office. Republicans here are already starting their campaign against the governor, lining people up who are saying "I got Whitmered!"



The arts are not luxuries but assets that give way more than they cost.
--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa
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