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Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: RgrF
Date: September 17, 2020 12:35AM
...Jim Geraghty - everyone's favorite liberal



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/17/2020 12:35AM by RgrF.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 17, 2020 04:00AM
Except for the aberrant ‘dirty tricks’ ‘72 election, Minnesota hasn’t backed a Republican since Ike in ‘56, probably because we vote at a higher rate than any other state.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/17/2020 04:34AM by Speedy.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 17, 2020 08:19AM
The state is also home to international health care and the likes of 3M. Each were negatively impacted by COVID and the President's response.

I've noted this before - there were plenty of GOP Presidential candidate signs in 2016. But not a single one my neighborhood in 2020. Noting GOP, not DT; DT earned the fifth most votes overall in the state during the primaries. His only 2 point loss was due to a complete lack of attention by HC (and taking this state for granted). In addition, there was a notable Bernie voting segment who ended up flipping from Obama to Trump.

I keep thinking the difference between Senator Smith (basically a replacement stock DFL Senator) and Senator Klobuchar (who reaches to more blue collar voters) is going to be key to keep the state blue.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/17/2020 08:20AM by sekker.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: abevilac
Date: September 17, 2020 08:22AM
Colbert said last night that the state with the highest voter turnout would be a guest on his show. Get ready, Speedy for your interview.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: pdq
Date: September 17, 2020 09:09AM
Yeah, there was a poll from a group that I’d never heard of a few weeks back that said they were tied in MN and it was mentioned widely on the news. That was a downer until I saw that the “Trafalgar Group” was a huge outlier, and Nate Silver rated the firm a “C - “.

As noted in the link from the OP, the September polls show Trump behind by 4 to 16 (!) points in MN, with most showing an 8 to 9 point lead.The 16 is a bit of an outlier, but I honestly don’t think Trump has a chance here. The Trumpies here are loud, loud, loud, but not that numerous.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: September 18, 2020 07:19AM
Minnesota 2016:
Clinton 46.4%
Trump 44.9%

That ain't no solid blue state folks.

Minnesota has shifted in the red direction. Currently I'd call it purple. Demographics are never stagnant, you're always headed someplace. Minnesota has become more "white working class" than anything else and those folks have trended red.

That does not mean it's enough of an effect to have the state go for Trump this year, but it's a future trend to consider. I certainly hope voters there turnout for Biden.

A number of polls have shown the race between Trump and Biden fairly close:
The Star Tribune/MPR/KARE 11 poll published on May 25 found the former vice president leading Trump by just 5 points, 49-44 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Here's a 538 piece from a few weeks ago: Why Minnesota Could be the next Midwestern State to go Red:
[fivethirtyeight.com]


Anyway - we, need new coalition building in the Democratic party. It's going to be sad if we become "whites with college education and everybody who doesn't identify as white" v. "the other white people and some socially conservative people."
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: Sam3
Date: September 18, 2020 09:29AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
::snip::

Anyway - we, need new coalition building in the Democratic party. It's going to be sad if we become "whites with college education and everybody who doesn't identify as white" v. "the other white people and some socially conservative people."

Agreed! I was hoping this would have started four years ago, but it hasn't. One reason Hillary lost was that she never (or rarely) visited towns where manufacturing had dried up, she never talked to people who were hurting. Those working-class Americans decided to vote Trump, who was making all sorts of promises.

Democrats HAVE to talk to and get working class Americans back into the fold. They used to be the party of the worker, the laborer, but somewhere lost that narrative. They also have to court and embrace true small businesses.

No wonder people aren't voting, all they see is a party of the rich, and a party of the ivory tower.





The arts are not luxuries but assets that give way more than they cost.
--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: September 18, 2020 03:54PM
Quote
Sam3
Quote
Lemon Drop
::snip::

Anyway - we, need new coalition building in the Democratic party. It's going to be sad if we become "whites with college education and everybody who doesn't identify as white" v. "the other white people and some socially conservative people."

Agreed! I was hoping this would have started four years ago, but it hasn't. One reason Hillary lost was that she never (or rarely) visited towns where manufacturing had dried up, she never talked to people who were hurting. Those working-class Americans decided to vote Trump, who was making all sorts of promises.

Democrats HAVE to talk to and get working class Americans back into the fold. They used to be the party of the worker, the laborer, but somewhere lost that narrative. They also have to court and embrace true small businesses.

No wonder people aren't voting, all they see is a party of the rich, and a party of the ivory tower.


And they're both kinda "parties of the rich" now, unfortunately.

Two areas where Dems really struggle with white working class folks are guns and God. A group I worked with in Washington state, the Alliance for Gun Responsibility, did a good job getting gun rights supporters on board with common sense gun safety regulation. And many good new laws passed in the state. There is a lot of middle ground where we can accomplish good things.

Where religion is concerned, if people could talk more in terms of common values and goals, maybe that would help.
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Re: Another interesting poll analysis from a different perspective..
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 19, 2020 07:24AM
Interesting article. Minnesota isn’t going red in my lifetime.

The 2016 election was similar to 1998 when Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura as governor. 1998 had a big turnout for the odd-ball candidate. The milquetoast candidates run by the DFL and GOP got little press compared to Ventura. In 2016 voters in Minnesota were certain to go for Clinton so enough of those who would vote DFL stayed home. But plenty voted for the odd-ball candidate, people who normally would have stayed home. That won’t happen this year.

Quote
Lemon Drop
Minnesota 2016:
Clinton 46.4%
Trump 44.9%

That ain't no solid blue state folks.

Minnesota has shifted in the red direction. Currently I'd call it purple. Demographics are never stagnant, you're always headed someplace. Minnesota has become more "white working class" than anything else and those folks have trended red.

That does not mean it's enough of an effect to have the state go for Trump this year, but it's a future trend to consider. I certainly hope voters there turnout for Biden.

A number of polls have shown the race between Trump and Biden fairly close:
The Star Tribune/MPR/KARE 11 poll published on May 25 found the former vice president leading Trump by just 5 points, 49-44 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Here's a 538 piece from a few weeks ago: Why Minnesota Could be the next Midwestern State to go Red:
[fivethirtyeight.com]


Anyway - we, need new coalition building in the Democratic party. It's going to be sad if we become "whites with college education and everybody who doesn't identify as white" v. "the other white people and some socially conservative people."



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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