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538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: pdq
Date: September 26, 2020 10:31AM
...at present, they’re now switched Ohio to Biden, making the median outcome as Biden 352 to Trump 186. This is probably because of a recent Fox poll (Sept 20-23) showing Biden with a five point lead there.

Not counting chickens yet, but Biden doesn’t need Ohio to win. He doesn’t need Florida to win. He doesn’t need Arizona or North Carolina to win. But at present, all of those are projected by 538 as Biden wins. Of the ones he does need to win, 538 puts Biden’s closest race in Pennsylvania, where he has a 76% chance of winning.

Yeah, I remember 2016. Yes, I know Biden probably won’t win all of those states, and yes, I know about complacency. But I also know that in the recent past, public polls show that people think Trump will win again, and the numbers (which are significantly different from 2016) show the reverse...and the biggest danger I see from that is discouragement.

If we vote, we win. And despite what you’ve heard, it’s looking better and better.

Help vote this aberration out so you can tell your grandchildren you were part of this fight for America.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2020 10:34AM by pdq.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: September 26, 2020 10:32AM
We ALL need our states to go to Biden to win. This needs to be a true landslide. Or this country and this planet are screwed.

VOTE.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: PeterB
Date: September 26, 2020 10:46AM
Unfortunately, the "If we vote, we win" mantra is simply incorrect.

Trump may yet again steal an electoral victory away from the populace. His minions are already working hard to make sure that the swing electoral states will go red, through the usual tools ... voter suppression/disqualification/intimidation, false claims to the sheeple (such as voter fraud/rigging), creating chaos, foreign interference in the election, etc., along with new tools, like making sure the mails don't go through in time in order for the votes to count.

In a way, the SC justice battle that we're all about to endure, is to create a situation where it's likely that there will be a showdown over abortion RIGHT BEFORE the election.

[www.cnbc.com]

This may actually end up backfiring on Trump and Republicans though... he wants it to be a diversion and create chaos in the week or two coming up to the election, so as to divert peoples' attention away from coronavirus, racial injustices, and the economy... but it could end up backfiring-- as many people might rightfully ask why we're dealing with that particular mess and not all the issues that had been coming up in the months preceding.

You're correct that the only way we "win" is through an electoral landslide, but that's not at all guaranteed, and even if it were to happen-- Orange Dump will create chaos by claiming the result was rigged and therefore invalid. Expect the result to end up going all the way up to the SC, and we all know what will happen there.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2020 10:51AM by PeterB.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: mattkime
Date: September 26, 2020 11:23AM
Go take your optimism elsewhere!

Hahaha....



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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: September 26, 2020 11:51AM
The republican legislatures across the nation have ensured that the Russians will have an easy time hacking the obsolete election machines and the servers where the results are stored in favor of Drumpf.

My hope is that in leaving the door wide open, they've also inadvertently invited the Chinese and Iranians, who want Drumpf out.



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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Wags
Date: September 26, 2020 12:58PM
Quote
cbelt3
We ALL need our states to go to Biden to win. This needs to be a true landslide. Or this country and this planet are screwed.

VOTE.

This.

Vote ASAP. Make sure your ballot is filled out correctly. Get help if there is the least confusion. Encourage everyone you know to do the same, especially young voters. Use an official drop off location if at all possible.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 26, 2020 01:01PM
Vote.

538 has NOT changed their estimates on Biden win beyond 77% - right now.

If the current polling is true Nov 3, it's over 90%.

But they expect polls to tighten.

And there could STILL be some sort of Oct Surprise.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 26, 2020 02:22PM
Trump and/or Barr will be rolling something out every other day. Biden and Harris need to win all the debates. This thing isn’t close to being decided.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: September 26, 2020 06:12PM
Assuming that Biden holds onto the standard Democratic states along with Wisconsin and Michigan, he wins with either Pennsylvania or Florida, or Ohio plus another small state such as New Hampshire, or Arizona plus North Carolina. In this sense, all of the above states and/or combinations are the tipping point state, where Biden goes over 270 electoral votes.

It is true that there are a lot of states where the difference is only a percent or two, and some where the difference is 3 percent, so there is a modest likelihood (now at 22 - 23 percent) that Trump lucks out and wins an electoral vote majority. This would be more likely only if there is some general slant to the polling and/or there is something that skews the feelings of the voters between now and when they cast their ballots.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 26, 2020 08:21PM
Do not forget that four years ago 538 was off by at least 4.3% on WI, MI, and PA. They have not said why their current estimates are more reliable than 2016. Any swing state needs to have Biden be up by at least 4% for me to believe their prediction.

There is also the issue that publishing early predictions can suppress turnout.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: AllGold
Date: September 26, 2020 09:27PM
In a recent conversation with my mom I learned she will not tell a pollster (on the telephone) who she is voting for. Fine, that's her choice, but her approach bothered me. Instead of being direct and telling them she doesn't want to say, she played coy and joked around.

My mom's character is not in question, but this illustrates the difficulty of polling. (Implying other people might make things up.)



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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 26, 2020 10:08PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Do not forget that four years ago 538 was off by at least 4.3% on WI, MI, and PA. They have not said why their current estimates are more reliable than 2016. Any swing state needs to have Biden be up by at least 4% for me to believe their prediction.

There is also the issue that publishing early predictions can suppress turnout.

538 continues to emphasize how much better polling is in 2020 in states like WI than 2016.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Acer
Date: September 26, 2020 10:28PM
538 speaks in probabilities. They never say "Candidate X will win." They give all the scenarios, win, lose, draw, and the probabilities of each. They never said Hillary would win, only that it was likely. A Trump win was still in their scenarios, with a probability associated with it. Trump's win probability was less than Hillary's, but it was never zero. They didn't fail to predict anything in 2016, because they don't predict. Like a sportsball game, no matter who is favored, you still play the game because probabilities are an assurance of nothing. Try walking up to a bookie, and complain that you should not have to pay your debt, because your team with the favorable odds lost. He'll break your kneecaps, because he doesn't predict, he estimates probabilities. 538 is a bookie, not a fortune teller.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 27, 2020 12:59AM
Quote
sekker
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Do not forget that four years ago 538 was off by at least 4.3% on WI, MI, and PA. They have not said why their current estimates are more reliable than 2016. Any swing state needs to have Biden be up by at least 4% for me to believe their prediction.

There is also the issue that publishing early predictions can suppress turnout.

538 continues to emphasize how much better polling is in 2020 in states like WI than 2016.

If their margin of error is lower, why don't they publish numbers? Without that it's B.S.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 27, 2020 08:04AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
sekker
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Do not forget that four years ago 538 was off by at least 4.3% on WI, MI, and PA. They have not said why their current estimates are more reliable than 2016. Any swing state needs to have Biden be up by at least 4% for me to believe their prediction.

There is also the issue that publishing early predictions can suppress turnout.

538 continues to emphasize how much better polling is in 2020 in states like WI than 2016.

If their margin of error is lower, why don't they publish numbers? Without that it's B.S.

You can download spreadsheets with all their polling numbers they use and their listed percentages. They do not publish their formula, which is fair. Keep in mind, their entire website is about trying to quantitate uncertainty.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 27, 2020 10:58AM
Being off over 4% isn't much of a quarantine. It seems like they are publishing a betting line with nothing to validate their predictions.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: September 27, 2020 11:16AM
Quote
Wags
Quote
cbelt3
We ALL need our states to go to Biden to win. This needs to be a true landslide. Or this country and this planet are screwed.

VOTE.

This.

Vote ASAP. Make sure your ballot is filled out correctly. Get help if there is the least confusion. Encourage everyone you know to do the same, especially young voters. Use an official drop off location if at all possible.

I'll counter this sentiment by saying everyone who is able to do so, should go to the polls on election day. If you are sick, at risk, etc then of course you should not go. But otherwise, the count that will happen in election night is HUGELY important. Some absentee and mailed votes may not be included in all counts that night, creating an impression that 45 has some advantage.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 27, 2020 12:47PM
Quote
mrbigstuff
Quote
Wags
Quote
cbelt3
We ALL need our states to go to Biden to win. This needs to be a true landslide. Or this country and this planet are screwed.

VOTE.

This.

Vote ASAP. Make sure your ballot is filled out correctly. Get help if there is the least confusion. Encourage everyone you know to do the same, especially young voters. Use an official drop off location if at all possible.

I'll counter this sentiment by saying everyone who is able to do so, should go to the polls on election day. If you are sick, at risk, etc then of course you should not go. But otherwise, the count that will happen in election night is HUGELY important. Some absentee and mailed votes may not be included in all counts that night, creating an impression that 45 has some advantage.

Other options can be to vote in person, but vote early. We are likely going to do that.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 27, 2020 12:54PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Being off over 4% isn't much of a quarantine. It seems like they are publishing a betting line with nothing to validate their predictions.

I'm trying to understand your comment/concern. There are different error types in the kind of work 538 does.

First, polls have inherent biases due to their sampling methods, sizes and correction formulas. Aggregating a lot of different polls is the entire idea behind 538, while they add in some corrections, etc, for 'house effects' of the different polling companies.

Second, polls and elections are not always aligned. These are 'polling' errors - meaning that even a 'perfect' poll (or set of polls) might have the election wrong. 538 literally calculates this class of error, going back like 150 years.

The current forecast works to measure (1) in real time, then has historical data on (2). This is calculated state by state for the current Presidential election and then uses the Electoral College 270 votes as the outcome.

Picking any one (or even 3 or 4) states is classic cherry-picking of the data - a known error method for calculating the accuracy of a model. You need to look at the ENTIRE dataset to see how accurate it was. If they were closer than historical polling error for 46 of 50 states in 2016, I guarantee you it was better than 99% of other prediction sites. My guess is they were closer to 80% accurate; still WAY better than NYT, CNN etc.

My recommendation is that 538 is designed for those that like data, like to discuss data, and like to be critical of how data is used (and why and how to use it). If you just want a 'yes, no' answer, I think 538 will be frustrating to both understand as well as use properly.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/27/2020 12:56PM by sekker.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Dennis S
Date: September 27, 2020 12:56PM
People voting - at the polls or by mail - are as important as troops who stormed Normandy and other beaches.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 27, 2020 05:46PM
Quote
sekker
I'm trying to understand your comment/concern. There are different error types in the kind of work 538 does.

I feel that they need to admit their numbers are fallible and have a range of error, then publish an estimated range for that error. Afterwards they should post an honest review of any data points where they fail. They never did this for 2016.

Edit:




In tha 360. MRF User Map



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/28/2020 12:28AM by Filliam H. Muffman.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: graylocks
Date: September 28, 2020 10:29AM
Quote
sekker
Other options can be to vote in person, but vote early. We are likely going to do that.

this is the plan for me and my son. in GA early voting starts 10/12. If the lines are too daunting we have until 10/30 to request an absentee ballot which we would take directly to the one drop box in our county ASAP.



"Success isn't about how much money you make. It is about the difference you make in people's lives."--Michelle Obama
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: sekker
Date: September 28, 2020 02:50PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
sekker
I'm trying to understand your comment/concern. There are different error types in the kind of work 538 does.

I feel that they need to admit their numbers are fallible and have a range of error, then publish an estimated range for that error. Afterwards they should post an honest review of any data points where they fail. They never did this for 2016.

Edit:

Their entire website is about showcasing error estimates.

The reason they have not 'admitted' to having 'failed' in 2016 is that would be the wrong assessment of what they said. They kept saying Donald Trump had at least a 30% chance to win the election. 30% happens ALL the time - as in, a terrific baseball player gets a hit at that rate.

Not sure why you want them to say anything else? It's what they are. Walks? Quacks? Duck? Yep.
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: September 29, 2020 07:27PM
The issue is they became one of the top prediction sites for that election, did a face plant, and then played it off like they didn't really matter. They pretend to be a polling site. People don't understand that they are really just a betting line site whoring for advertising dollars by attracting hits.



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: 538 has changed it’s forecast...
Posted by: RgrF
Date: October 01, 2020 01:52AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
The issue is they became one of the top prediction sites for that election, did a face plant, and then played it off like they didn't really matter. They pretend to be a polling site. People don't understand that they are really just a betting line site whoring for advertising dollars by attracting hits.

The NYTimes contract they acquired had something to do with that.
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