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"Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: Ted King
Date: October 20, 2020 02:31PM
Five Thirty Eight gives this pollster an A/B rating, which is why I thought it would be worth taking note of:

[www.investors.com]

Quote

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.
- - - - -
In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump's 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD's polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

These results are odd in that the rest of the article goes on to show - in their polling - that Biden is doing better than Clinton did among several groups of voters.

Since 538 gives them a good rating and they predicted a Trump win in 2016, I thought this was at least worth noting. Of course, being right in 2016 doesn't imply that they're better than other poll-takers this time around. Kinda dampened my enthusiasm and (what used to be) my growing optimism, though. I probably needed a dose of over-enthusiasm antidote. slap smiley



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/20/2020 02:32PM by Ted King.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 20, 2020 02:45PM
Yeah, I saw that. I always anticipated this tightening, but this is just one poll. 538 still has an estimated 10 point (national) Biden lead, with these results included.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: Acer
Date: October 20, 2020 02:46PM
If we're this close, in the face of this absolute circus of an administration, and you are still undecided, might as well count you as a Trump voter.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 20, 2020 03:03PM
FWIW, the NYT/Sienna College poll today shows Biden with a 9 point national lead. Those folks are also rated “A” by 538, IIRC.

...and of course, single national polls don’t mean a lot anyway; again, Biden doesn’t need Arizona, or North Carolina, or Georgia or Florida or even Ohio, all of which are close. And he remains high-single digits ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where I would be surprised if they repeated their error of four years ago.

If we vote, we win.

Edit: actually, 538 rates NYT/Sienna as “A+”.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/21/2020 07:57AM by pdq.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: sekker
Date: October 20, 2020 03:10PM
That pollster bounces around, not too worried about the data points unless they stick.

Again, I am appalled at 42% of our fellow citizens.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: October 20, 2020 03:52PM
This poll may be an outlier. If there aren't at least a few outlier polls this season then something is wrong.

Polls are not keeping me up at night but after that Pennsylvania decision yesterday the fear of a this election being decided 6-3 in the Supreme Court does.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: October 20, 2020 04:34PM
“Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line.”


Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: SteveO
Date: October 20, 2020 05:04PM
Feels like 2016. Let's hope that changes. I wonder if 538 takes into account voter suppression and outright cheating.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: October 20, 2020 05:19PM
Quote
Speedy
“Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line.”

so true
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: bfd
Date: October 20, 2020 08:04PM
The next few months are going to be the kind of shared experience that we'll say can never be forgotten - and then 50 years from now, the same thing will happen - with the same results.
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Re: "Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll"
Posted by: AllGold
Date: October 21, 2020 01:42AM
Biden is leaking Democratic support

Say what? dunno smiley


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