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Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 05, 2020 12:41PM
With 114,000 votes separating trump from Biden, here are the three largest mail/absentee counts still to be completed --

Alleghany County (aka Pittsburgh) 35,800 (currently 60/40 for Biden)
Bucks County (Philadelphia) 46,600 (currently 50/50)
Cumberland County 32,000 (currently 60/40 Trump)
Lehigh County 39,000 (currently 50/50)
Philadelphia 91,000 (currently 80/20 Biden)

EDIT - I Eliminated my error-ridden math analysis



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/05/2020 03:48PM by Ombligo.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: November 05, 2020 12:45PM
Trump’s only leading by 14,000 votes in Pennsylvania?
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: wave rider
Date: November 05, 2020 12:46PM
I like your math.



=wr=
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: GGD
Date: November 05, 2020 12:47PM
I'm seeing 114,000 votes separating them now, not 14,000.

In which case, your analysis seems like bad news for Biden.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 05, 2020 12:51PM
Bucks is a suburb of Philly, but the northern half dissolves into farmland, so 50/50 sounds right.
Cumberland includes a good bit of the Harrisburg bedroom communities and two small universities, but outside those it's farmland, Amish even. 60/40 is probably the upper limit for Biden.

Lehigh has Allentown and some very rust-belt/coal-belt heritage. I'd have expected a little more Biden there. But they may have been subsumed by the rural MAGA crowd that far away from Philly.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: November 05, 2020 12:58PM
Quote
wave rider
I like your math.

As long as it's not republican "make you feel better" math.

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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: deckeda
Date: November 05, 2020 01:00PM
Yeah I don’t think the counting can go on long enough to give PA to Biden. It’s Nevada and AZ that are most likely, with GA being a delicious prize if possible.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: November 05, 2020 01:13PM
....so PENn__IS........the key to victory......???



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: numbered
Date: November 05, 2020 01:15PM
The PA Secretary of State was on CNN this hour, and said:
Quote

Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kelly Boockvar tells @CNN that the state will have the “overwhelming majority” of ballots counted today. We may know today whether Biden or Trump won the state.
*550,000 ballots are left to count.
*“It’s looking like we’re ahead of schedule."

Biden needs to win 60% of these, and since they are all mail, he has been winning more than 70% of them. The quants are saying PA is the most likely of the list.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: PeterB
Date: November 05, 2020 01:16PM
Quote
deckeda
Yeah I don’t think the counting can go on long enough to give PA to Biden. It’s Nevada and AZ that are most likely, with GA being a delicious prize if possible.

This is the problem. If Biden gets AZ, fine, but he's probably not going to get PA, and debatable whether he'll get NV. I doubt he'll get GA, but that'd of course be a slap on Dump's butt if he did. So we might still have another four years of Orange Dumpiness.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: numbered
Date: November 05, 2020 01:21PM
About Nevada, Jon Ralston, the local with the best rep for Nevada, has been tweeting that the remaining Nevada votes are almost all from very Democratic Clark county (Las Vegas). Even with a small apparent margin he has indicated it is almost impossible for Trump to win.

However, it has not been called because there are folks who think the Arizona call was premature. Arizona looks a bit less certain than Nevada (or PA) to the quants. Having called AZ, the AP is loathe to call NV because it would be a call for Biden. They are waiting for PA. Or at least that is the quant speculation.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 05, 2020 01:28PM
The 14k difference is the current gap in GA, in case that's the confusion.

PA looks like it will be a clean win for Biden, with a potentially bigger win than WI.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: S. Pupp
Date: November 05, 2020 01:30PM
I’ve known more Democrats in my 12 years in SC than I knew in my 16 years in PA.
I’ve always thought of PA as a red state at heart.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/05/2020 01:31PM by S. Pupp.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 05, 2020 01:36PM
Quote
S. Pupp
I’ve known more Democrats in my 12 years in SC than I knew in my 16 years in PA.
I’ve always thought of PA as a red state at heart.

The definition has changed. When blue collar citizens were welcome in the Democratic party, PA was a blue state. Plenty of racist democrats too.

Now that 'red' = racism, many of those have flipped to the current GOP.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: pdq
Date: November 05, 2020 01:40PM
The live blog at 538 is also feeling pretty confident about Biden taking PA.

Nevada results, while incomplete, are strongly leaning toward a Biden win. In fact, the discussion has been what does Fox News do now, since they’ve already called AZ for Biden. Nevada is probably even a clearer call for Biden than AZ, but if Faux News called that, they’d be calling the whole presidential election, and heads would explode (and other heads would possibly roll).

But it’s feeling inevitable at this point...
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 05, 2020 01:43PM
As a child of rural Ohio, and in-laws from rural PA, I see a lot of soft racism in both. They wouldn't lynch anyone and don't use slurs (at least in public), but their default attitude is of suspicion toward minorities. Doesn't help that their only news about minorities comes from TV and newspapers based in big cities, where all they hear about minorities is associated with crime and welfare.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: November 05, 2020 01:50PM
....so the race(ism) is on.......?????



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: PeterB
Date: November 05, 2020 01:52PM
Quote
pdq
The live blog at 538 is also feeling pretty confident about Biden taking PA.

Nevada results, while incomplete, are strongly leaning toward a Biden win. In fact, the discussion has been what does Fox News do now, since they’ve already called AZ for Biden. Nevada is probably even a clearer call for Biden than AZ, but if Faux News called that, they’d be calling the whole presidential election, and heads would explode (and other heads would possibly roll).

But it’s feeling inevitable at this point...

Nothing is inevitable... like I said, I don't think Biden is going to get PA, and while he might get NV, doubtful he'll get both NV and AZ. I would love to be wrong, and he takes PA or both NV and AZ, in which case it's obviously over. But even if that happens, the lawsuits will have to wind their way up to the SC, and Dump made sure that his "fix" is in on the SC.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: hal
Date: November 05, 2020 01:57PM
Just take solace in the thought most here think that you are most certainly wrong about this. I can't imagine what data you are looking at that tells you that Biden can't win both AZ and NV - seems pretty straightforward to me.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Yoyodyne ArtWorks
Date: November 05, 2020 02:13PM
Quote
hal
Just take solace in the thought most here think that you are most certainly wrong about this. I can't imagine what data you are looking at that tells you that Biden can't win both AZ and NV - seems pretty straightforward to me.

Yep, NV seems like a virtual certainty. What worries me about Arizona is all the elderly white retired people, who in general (across the country) vote Republican.



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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: vision63
Date: November 05, 2020 02:14PM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
pdq
The live blog at 538 is also feeling pretty confident about Biden taking PA.

Nevada results, while incomplete, are strongly leaning toward a Biden win. In fact, the discussion has been what does Fox News do now, since they’ve already called AZ for Biden. Nevada is probably even a clearer call for Biden than AZ, but if Faux News called that, they’d be calling the whole presidential election, and heads would explode (and other heads would possibly roll).

But it’s feeling inevitable at this point...

Nothing is inevitable... like I said, I don't think Biden is going to get PA, and while he might get NV, doubtful he'll get both NV and AZ. I would love to be wrong, and he takes PA or both NV and AZ, in which case it's obviously over. But even if that happens, the lawsuits will have to wind their way up to the SC, and Dump made sure that his "fix" is in on the SC.

I can tell you've had quite the year. It's all gonna work out the way we want it to work out.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 05, 2020 02:15PM
Quote
Yoyodyne ArtWorks
Quote
hal
Just take solace in the thought most here think that you are most certainly wrong about this. I can't imagine what data you are looking at that tells you that Biden can't win both AZ and NV - seems pretty straightforward to me.

Yep, NV seems like a virtual certainty. What worries me about Arizona is all the elderly white retired people, who in general (across the country) vote Republican.

Yoyo, it’s November 5, not October 5; we are way past the concern you raise.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: numbered
Date: November 05, 2020 02:18PM
From Ralston on Twitter about Nevada moments ago:

Quote

One of the reasons no one has officially called Nevada is the volume of ballots still out there.

It's about 140,000, with almost 90 percent in Clark.

But 90 percent in Clark makes it worse for Trump.

Those votes are going to help Dems.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Yoyodyne ArtWorks
Date: November 05, 2020 02:45PM
Quote
Speedy
Quote
Yoyodyne ArtWorks
Quote
hal
Just take solace in the thought most here think that you are most certainly wrong about this. I can't imagine what data you are looking at that tells you that Biden can't win both AZ and NV - seems pretty straightforward to me.

Yep, NV seems like a virtual certainty. What worries me about Arizona is all the elderly white retired people, who in general (across the country) vote Republican.

Yoyo, it’s November 5, not October 5; we are way past the concern you raise.

Unless you know the specific number of uncounted ballots that came from over-65 white Republican residents of Arizona, the concern is still valid.



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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: numbered
Date: November 05, 2020 03:02PM
And another PA data point with Biden behind 100k at this hour:

Quote

Update from @CNN
About 85k-90k mail ballots left to be counted in PHILADELPHIA.

There are still many, many more outstanding, but the mail ballots have been running better than 70% for Biden.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: November 05, 2020 03:24PM
The betting sites are giving 8 to 1 odds now in Pennsylvania, in Biden’s favor. Overall they’re giving Biden a 93%ish chance that he’ll get the presidency. Either they’re going to lose a lot of money or Biden’s going to win it.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: November 05, 2020 03:30PM
Grab your calculators - this is a great website by PA that has great fine-grain, current data.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: SteveO
Date: November 05, 2020 03:46PM
Wonder how many black votes are being suppressed / tossed in GA (and elsewhere?). They are VERY good at that there. I just checked NYT and it said they have 98% of the GA count done and Trump still ahead by .3%. This doesn't make sense to me as had read that most of the votes left to be counted there were from mostly D Atlanta...and that was back when they had like 85% counted. I know Biden had a long road to catch up, but seems like paydirt should've been hit by now.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 05, 2020 05:23PM
I was listening to MSNBC's Steve Karnaki (sp?) and using his statistics, I banged through a rough estimate and came up with Biden winning Pennsylvania by about 100,000 to 200,000 votes. I wouldn't bet money on those numbers, but I think they aren't way off.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 05, 2020 05:35PM
Gap is now about 90k, and GOP best district is in - votes were only slightly red.

Philadelphia votes are yet to come in. Those are historically 80+% Dem in the past, expect to be possibly over 90% Biden in 2020.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: deckeda
Date: November 05, 2020 05:51PM
Quote
SteveO
Wonder how many black votes are being suppressed / tossed in GA (and elsewhere?). They are VERY good at that there. I just checked NYT and it said they have 98% of the GA count done and Trump still ahead by .3%. This doesn't make sense to me as had read that most of the votes left to be counted there were from mostly D Atlanta...and that was back when they had like 85% counted. I know Biden had a long road to catch up, but seems like paydirt should've been hit by now.

The recent churn of SoS netted earlier voter registrations being purged. That was Kemp’s achievement before being rewarded with the Governorship at Stacey Abram’s expense. There’s a legit argument to be made he stole that election and has been an asshat since.

The current SoS is staying low and out of the fray. Except for whatever the GA does in joining the Trump campaign’s lawsuit, no votes should be kicked out.

The issue with Georgia is evergreen ... you have the ATL, other places like Savannah/Macon and the remainder everywhere else is basically Republican. What’s changed this year is that Democrats have been awakened to act. That’s why it’s squeaking through as opposed to one of the first states called for whomever the Republican is. Clinton was the last Dem to win GA.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: PeterB
Date: November 05, 2020 08:40PM
Quote
vision63
Quote
PeterB
Quote
pdq
The live blog at 538 is also feeling pretty confident about Biden taking PA.

Nevada results, while incomplete, are strongly leaning toward a Biden win. In fact, the discussion has been what does Fox News do now, since they’ve already called AZ for Biden. Nevada is probably even a clearer call for Biden than AZ, but if Faux News called that, they’d be calling the whole presidential election, and heads would explode (and other heads would possibly roll).

But it’s feeling inevitable at this point...

Nothing is inevitable... like I said, I don't think Biden is going to get PA, and while he might get NV, doubtful he'll get both NV and AZ. I would love to be wrong, and he takes PA or both NV and AZ, in which case it's obviously over. But even if that happens, the lawsuits will have to wind their way up to the SC, and Dump made sure that his "fix" is in on the SC.

I can tell you've had quite the year. It's all gonna work out the way we want it to work out.

I hope so. And yes, it's been quite the year. You have to remember that I'm basically surrounded by predominantly Trumpers down here (even though NOLA is a solid blue dot in the sea of red), including those who just voted in a constitutional amendment to make sure that women have no right to an abortion.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 05, 2020 08:43PM
Quote
Ted King
I was listening to MSNBC's Steve Karnaki (sp?) and using his statistics, I banged through a rough estimate and came up with Biden winning Pennsylvania by about 100,000 to 200,000 votes. I wouldn't bet money on those numbers, but I think they aren't way off.

Okay, Karnaki did the numbers later and if the patterns hold, then Biden should come in ahead by a few to several tens of thousands.

Warning - this is an explanation you really don't need to read:

I backtracked and realized I had used the "Percent Vote" numbers on the screen and the total number of votes cast to that point to estimate the votes still outstanding but that yielded a bigger number than he used later on as the number of votes that were still outstanding.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 05, 2020 08:52PM
PA updates; site administrator forecasts flip to Biden at 11PM Pacific time.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 05, 2020 09:01PM
Factoid: Trump beat Clinton in Pennsylvania in 2016 by 44,200 votes.

Biden's win margin could end up right about in the same range.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: November 05, 2020 09:42PM
Quote
RgrF
PA updates; site administrator forecasts flip to Biden at 11PM Pacific time.

Holy crap. Now this makes me want to pull an all nighter.
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Re: Pennsylvania count
Posted by: Carnos Jax
Date: November 05, 2020 09:44PM
Down to 26319



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/05/2020 09:44PM by Carnos Jax.
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