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Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: November 16, 2020 09:12AM
So, even if the Democrats win both seats in Georgia and take the slimmest possible majority in the Senate, there's little chance of Biden/Harris actually repealing the legislative filibuster. Firstly, Biden himself has been historically skeptical of moves that loosen the constraints of the body, and secondly, Democrats like Joe Manchin (D-WV) have made clear that they would not support the repeal.

This means that all legislation still needs at least 10 GOP votes to pass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster bar. (The exception is legislation that is essentially about spending, which can be done with 50 votes through reconciliation - however, this legislation is extremely constrained in its scope and can be exercised only once per Congress.) That means:

  • Zero chance of DC, Puerto Rico, or Guam becoming states
  • Zero chance of expanding ACA/Obamacare coverage or adding a public option
  • Very little chance of passing tax rate reform, or rolling back the most recent tax cuts
  • Little chance of big Green New Deal-style investments in renewable energy
  • No possibility of meaningful climate change legislation to bring us into compliance with the Paris Agreement

Discuss. burnout smiley



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 16, 2020 10:01AM
Well, there are the judges. They must be important because McConnell has been willing to burn the country down to get them installed.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: deckeda
Date: November 16, 2020 10:14AM
Politicians can edit their position as it suits them. It could very be the case that with a bit of breathing room, Biden-Mnuchin could sing a different tune going forward.

Let’s get the two Georgians elected first.

And regardless, Dems need to up their sales game so that if and when they hit Republican roadblocks they can fight back and get voters energized with what “they’re missing.”
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: November 16, 2020 10:57AM
If the Republican party continues to break apart, the TrumpQAnonlickers will find themselves isolated from the DemoConservationists. As long as the Democratic party holds itself together (which will require some BRUTAL political maneuvering to herd those particular cats), all things are possible.

I'm tired of political polarization and the inability to legislate, which gave us King Trump doing everything by Executive Order. Replacing that process with King Joe is not a good thing for the long term viability of Democracy in the United States.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 16, 2020 11:06AM
There are tons of topics where we COULD have bipartisan agreement, so long as the GOP does not get in the mode that getting ANYTHING done supports President Biden.

Plenty of things that can be done by Executive Orders, including requirements for purchasing by the government, etc.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: samintx
Date: November 16, 2020 11:20AM
I have to agree with your bullet points. I do think we will get more climate legislation but nothing monumental but some.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: pdq
Date: November 16, 2020 12:07PM
I’d still put things like the public option out there, and let Republicans block it.

In two years there will be more Senate elections. I’d make sure Americans know what’s at stake.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 16, 2020 12:16PM
There will be two Republican senators from Georgia after the runoff. Democrats don’t vote in special elections.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: November 16, 2020 12:35PM
Quote
Speedy
There will be two Republican senators from Georgia after the runoff. Democrats don’t vote in special elections.

Lots of conventional wisdom about Georgia voters has been steadily debunked by Stacey Abrams.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: rgG
Date: November 16, 2020 01:23PM
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
Speedy
There will be two Republican senators from Georgia after the runoff. Democrats don’t vote in special elections.

Lots of conventional wisdom about Georgia voters has been steadily debunked by Stacey Abrams.

Yeah, I was totally skeptical that GA would go for Biden, and I think it will still be difficult for either Warnock or Ossoff to win, but I don't think it is impossible anymore.
If people get their absentee ballots and send them in, ASAP, or drop them off, preferred, then there is a fighting chance for one or both to win.





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 16, 2020 09:31PM
If they take one of the two seats it'll be an upset of major proportions. Voters have not shown any degree of upset with Trump or GOP policies, only with Trump himself.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: Bill in NC
Date: November 17, 2020 10:36AM
Businesses will love it...few major changes (which are expensive)...incremental changes from compromises necessitated by a "deadlocked" government are easier & cheaper to implement.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 17, 2020 10:46AM
I can't seem to find the answer to this question: can the Democrats use the reconciliation process to take away the corporate tax cuts and the tax cuts for the wealthy that were passed through reconciliation during Trump's presidency? (Assuming that the Democrats have 50 senators and all of them are willing to go along with it.)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/17/2020 10:47AM by Ted King.
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: November 17, 2020 10:57AM
Quote
Ted King
I can't seem to find the answer to this question: can the Democrats use the reconciliation process to take away the corporate tax cuts and the tax cuts for the wealthy that were passed through reconciliation during Trump's presidency? (Assuming that the Democrats have 50 senators and all of them are willing to go along with it.)

Yes, if they have 51 votes. That's a high bar for this set of Democrats, though - I'm not convinced Schumer can hold the caucus, much less get any Republicans to sign on.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Big plans that will come to naught
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 17, 2020 11:47AM
Quote
rjmacs
Quote
Ted King
I can't seem to find the answer to this question: can the Democrats use the reconciliation process to take away the corporate tax cuts and the tax cuts for the wealthy that were passed through reconciliation during Trump's presidency? (Assuming that the Democrats have 50 senators and all of them are willing to go along with it.)

Yes, if they have 51 votes. That's a high bar for this set of Democrats, though - I'm not convinced Schumer can hold the caucus, much less get any Republicans to sign on.

Thanks. Yeah, I know it's a high bar. I was just wondering if it was even possible.
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