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There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 13, 2020 11:15AM
"8.2. Unknown Benefits/Data Gaps Duration of protection

As the interim and final analyses have a limited length of follow-up, it is not possible to assess sustained efficacy over a period longer than 2 months."

From here: [www.fda.gov]
(LOTS of interesting information in this document...)

... so ... people could get immunized, think they're protected, then either end up developing the illness and/or transmitting to others through a false sense of security.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: DinerDave
Date: December 13, 2020 11:35AM
People just need to remember the vaccine is not a cure all.
Flu shots greatly increase your odds of NOT getting the flu,
but real life results do not come with a money back guarantee.

Reasonable care and precautions still need to be followed.

I go back to what I previously posted here and elsewhere...

A $2 mask will not guarantee you do not get covid, but it
greatly increases odds in your favor.
A seat belt will guarantee you will survive a car crash, but it
greatly increases odds in your favor.
And we all wear seatbelts without whining.

Dave



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Many have eaten here....

Few have died
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: samintx
Date: December 13, 2020 11:42AM
I wish they would stop showing that needle going in constantly on TV. The nay good things is it doesn’t look like the old penicillin syringes.
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Marc Anthony
Date: December 13, 2020 11:45AM
Conclusions shouldn't be drawn as to the duration of protection, given the paucity of data.



Le poète doit vivre beaucoup, vivre dans tous les sens. - Verlaine
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 13, 2020 11:54AM
Just a clarification: it's not that I necessarily expected to find any data on duration of efficacy (this being a brand new vaccine, of course), it's just that I was hoping -- given that they had already done earlier phase trials -- that they might have had SOME data about this.

And of course I know the vaccine is not a panacea, but the problem is that most of the American public-- not being particularly scientifically literate-- may not understand this.

In their heads, they see the 95% efficacy number, and think: "oh, I'm protected! I can go out now and do whatever I want." They fail to realize that 5% of a very large number is still a very large number; and even if they're in the 95%, we don't know how long the protection will last.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/13/2020 11:54AM by PeterB.
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: December 13, 2020 12:33PM
There was an interview with a local volunteer that was the second to get the Moderna vaccine. He still has active antibodies 8 months later. Time will tell.



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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: JoeH
Date: December 13, 2020 12:57PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
There was an interview with a local volunteer that was the second to get the Moderna vaccine. He still has active antibodies 8 months later. Time will tell.

Yes, time will tell whether that is to be expected for the majority of persons given vaccine, or if that person is an outlier. Then the question will be if the antibodies are actually protecting against COVID-19, and how much that protection is after 6, months, a year, and longer.
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: $tevie
Date: December 13, 2020 01:19PM
It sure would be swell if we hadn't had a President who spent his entire term warning his base that the News is Fake. We ended up with a population that refused to believe, let alone understand, what we needed to do when the virus came ashore.



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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: December 13, 2020 01:49PM
Quote
PeterB
Just a clarification: it's not that I necessarily expected to find any data on duration of efficacy (this being a brand new vaccine, of course), it's just that I was hoping -- given that they had already done earlier phase trials -- that they might have had SOME data about this.

Some...

As the interim and final analyses have a limited length of follow-up, it is not possible to assess sustained efficacy over a period longer than 2 months.

That's all the raw data they've got.

This is one reason why it's beneficial to test a vaccine over a decade or so before authorizing it for use.







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/13/2020 01:51PM by Sarcany.
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: December 13, 2020 01:55PM
Reports of lymphadenopathy were imbalanced with notably more cases in the vaccine group (64) vs. the placebo group (6), which is plausibly related to vaccination...

I've got cervical lymph node adenopathy from an old illness. It's a permanent condition where the glands in my neck are enlarged and tender/painful. It ain't fun.



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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 13, 2020 03:37PM
Quote
JoeH
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
There was an interview with a local volunteer that was the second to get the Moderna vaccine. He still has active antibodies 8 months later. Time will tell.

Yes, time will tell whether that is to be expected for the majority of persons given vaccine, or if that person is an outlier. Then the question will be if the antibodies are actually protecting against COVID-19, and how much that protection is after 6, months, a year, and longer.

Very important points, and especially the issue about whether or not the antibodies will continue to protect against the virus ... they mention in the report that there's the problem of the virus' spike protein mutating, in which case the antibodies might lose effectiveness, even if the antibodies are present and enduring. And there's also the issue of the T-cells, and what role they'll play in this, and for folks who have a defective T-cell response (a number of those who are immunocompromised fall in this category). Lastly, there's been data that people who've gotten documented reinfections are having a much worse time of it with the second round of infection, which suggests that the virus might be somehow jumping over some of the host's immune response, even if antibodies are present.

Quote
$tevie
It sure would be swell if we hadn't had a President who spent his entire term warning his base that the News is Fake. We ended up with a population that refused to believe, let alone understand, what we needed to do when the virus came ashore.

This. Speaking as someone for whom these vaccines might not actually work, I am legitimately concerned that folks either won't get vaccinated, or will get vaccinated but not take proper precautions as a result. I don't think most people will understand that, if they get vaccinated, that does NOT mean they can discontinue social distancing or wearing masks.

Quote
Sarcany
Reports of lymphadenopathy were imbalanced with notably more cases in the vaccine group (64) vs. the placebo group (6), which is plausibly related to vaccination...

I've got cervical lymph node adenopathy from an old illness. It's a permanent condition where the glands in my neck are enlarged and tender/painful. It ain't fun.

Yep, I saw that too about the lymphadenopathy in the vaccination group ... wonder if it's because the body has to rid itself of that lipid nanoparticle coating, and breaking that stuff down may put extra stress on the clearance/drainage systems of the body? I might guess that this is a general problem when you're injecting something very foreign/synthetic into the body.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: December 13, 2020 05:42PM
I think it was Kevin Drum who showed a graph in which the vaccine injected group took about 10 days to develop immunity and then retained it for the next 4 months, which was the time of the observation. The data points were the number of cases in the placebo group (a linear increase) compared to the vaccine group (rose equal to the placebo group for 10 days, then stayed flat).
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: December 13, 2020 06:02PM
....some people can't even wear a mask for protection....do you think they will not just think this is a 'cure'......???



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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: numbered
Date: December 13, 2020 06:23PM
Quote
Ca Bob
I think it was Kevin Drum who showed a graph in which the vaccine injected group took about 10 days to develop immunity

Right. Via Kevin from Pfizer, but this was just incidence. Quite a chart, but still does not tell us about duration.

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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: December 14, 2020 01:20AM
Quote
numbered
Quote
Ca Bob
I think it was Kevin Drum who showed a graph in which the vaccine injected group took about 10 days to develop immunity

Right. Via Kevin from Pfizer, but this was just incidence. Quite a chart, but still does not tell us about duration.


It depends on how you look at it. The population of placebo plus vaccinated was large enough to show a continued increase (admittedly at a low level) for 3 months after the injection plus ten days. There were essentially no new cases in the vaccinated group (or maybe 5% of the placebo number) which suggests that the entire population of vaccinated people were safe from the virus for that 3 month period, suggesting at least 3 months of immunity for the bulk of those injected. Admittedly if you just consider say the final two weeks, the lack of new cases doesn't promise anything about the length of immunity, but then how would you estimate length of immunity in a population where nobody gets the illness, even though placebo injected people are still getting it?
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: dk62
Date: December 14, 2020 08:48AM
I find the curves compelling, noting that the number of patients at risk falls a lot towards the last few points (as you would expect). So the data with reasonable number of patients is until day 91 or so, which makes it about day 70, or a bit over 2 months, after the full 2-dose vaccination.

I hope they are planning on a long-term follow-up. There will be a confounder of the loss of the control arm, as the placebo patients will be vaccinated, but at this point it will be easy to just compare the curve shape at different time points.
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: December 14, 2020 09:33AM
This is a two-part treatment, I expect a large number will get the first shot then never return for the second thus defeating the whole process.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias
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Re: There it is... duration of protection from Pfizer's vaccine
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: December 14, 2020 09:44AM
Quote
Ombligo
This is a two-part treatment, I expect a large number will get the first shot then never return for the second thus defeating the whole process.

Could be as much as 60% effective (for however long it lasts) with even one shot.

Might still benefit us even at that.



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