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More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: December 20, 2020 01:03AM
Once again, 2020 gets even worse.
The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly.
[www.cnbc.com]

England’s top medical officer on Saturday announced that the U.K. has identified a new variant of the coronavirus that “can spread more quickly” than prior strains of the virus, leading Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose fresh restrictions on parts of the nation to control its spread.

“We’re learning about it as we go, but we already know enough, more than enough, to be sure that we must act now,” Johnson said during a press briefing on Saturday where he laid out fresh restrictions on London and other parts of England ahead of the Christmas holiday.

“When the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defense,” Johnson said.

The U.K. government announced the new coronavirus strain on Monday following an increase in cases in the southern and eastern parts of England. Just over 1,100 Covid-19 cases with the new variant had been identified as of Sunday, according to a statement from Public Health England.

Now, it’s thought that the new strain could be up to 70% more transmissible than the original strain of the disease, Johnson said on Saturday, adding that it appears to be driving the rapid spread of infections. Johnson called on residents to refrain from traveling and “stay local” to prevent the new strain from moving around the country and abroad.

The United Kingdom is reporting roughly 24,061 new Covid-19 cases every day, based on a weekly average, which is a more than 40% increase compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

“This is early data, and it’s subject to review, but it’s the best that we have at the moment and we have to act on information as we have it because this is now spreading very fast,” Johnson said.

“So what this tells us is that this new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in its ability to transmit, but it’s becoming the dominant variant. It is beating all the others in terms of transmission,” he said.

Yet there’s “no evidence” it causes a more severe disease, more hospitalizations or “more trouble than the other virus,” Whitty said. While there are reasons to suspect the new variant might alter someone’s immune response to the disease, there’s nothing to indicate that’s the case so far, he said.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: samintx
Date: December 20, 2020 08:26AM
If you few to England early you might be spending Easter in England with quarantine international travel.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: pdq
Date: December 20, 2020 08:49AM
Also, they’re careening toward a could-never-happen no-deal Brexit in a couple of weeks.

The UK under dear Boris has become a @#$%& disaster. The only silver lining is that maybe the public will wake up and kick him to the curb.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: December 20, 2020 08:54AM
Yes southern England is in a very bad way with virus transmission, but I want to hear about this "mutation" from scientists I trust, not Boris Johnson.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: December 20, 2020 09:08AM
.....get the feeling that this will be like the flu......and each year(s) will come out with different strains....and that it will be here to stay....



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 20, 2020 09:13AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Yes southern England is in a very bad way with virus transmission, but I want to hear about this "mutation" from scientists I trust, not Boris Johnson.

[virological.org]

... there are a few key points of concern here:

1) This strain has 14 mutations, where it's estimated that the virus would normally be mutating at the rate of 1-2 mutations/month;

2) A few of the mutations are in the spike protein, which is the same protein being targeted by numerous vaccines (including the mRNA ones);

3) While this particular strain is not more virulent, it is more contagious, and the fact that it's already got these additional mutations means that it might be a few steps away from either becoming more virulent, or resistant to the vaccines, or both. Nobody wants to come out and say this, and admittedly it's not necessarily that likely to happen, but it's something of which to be aware.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2020 09:14AM by PeterB.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: December 20, 2020 09:31AM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Lemon Drop
Yes southern England is in a very bad way with virus transmission, but I want to hear about this "mutation" from scientists I trust, not Boris Johnson.

[virological.org]

... there are a few key points of concern here:

1) This strain has 14 mutations, where it's estimated that the virus would normally be mutating at the rate of 1-2 mutations/month;

2) A few of the mutations are in the spike protein, which is the same protein being targeted by numerous vaccines (including the mRNA ones);

3) While this particular strain is not more virulent, it is more contagious, and the fact that it's already got these additional mutations means that it might be a few steps away from either becoming more virulent, or resistant to the vaccines, or both. Nobody wants to come out and say this, and admittedly it's not necessarily that likely to happen, but it's something of which to be aware.

Thank you for that. The conclusion to that report suggests this is mostly a set of unknowns, with further study needed.

Would certainly be disturbing if the current vaccine is ineffective for those exposed to this strain.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: December 20, 2020 10:50AM
Belgium, Austria, Italy, Netherlands halt UK flights, fearing new coronavirus variant
The Associated Press

* The Netherlands, Belgium and Austria on Sunday banned flights from the U.K. and Germany considered limiting such flights to make sure that a new strain of coronavirus sweeping across southern England does not establish a strong foothold on the continent.
*The Netherlands banned flights from the U.K. for at least the rest of the year while Belgium issued a flight ban for 24 hours starting at midnight and also halted train links to Britain, including the Eurostar.
*German officials were considering “serious options” regarding incoming flights from the U.K., but have not yet taken action.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Janit
Date: December 20, 2020 12:04PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Lemon Drop
Yes southern England is in a very bad way with virus transmission, but I want to hear about this "mutation" from scientists I trust, not Boris Johnson.

[virological.org]

... there are a few key points of concern here:

1) This strain has 14 mutations, where it's estimated that the virus would normally be mutating at the rate of 1-2 mutations/month;

2) A few of the mutations are in the spike protein, which is the same protein being targeted by numerous vaccines (including the mRNA ones);

3) While this particular strain is not more virulent, it is more contagious, and the fact that it's already got these additional mutations means that it might be a few steps away from either becoming more virulent, or resistant to the vaccines, or both. Nobody wants to come out and say this, and admittedly it's not necessarily that likely to happen, but it's something of which to be aware.

Thank you for that. The conclusion to that report suggests this is mostly a set of unknowns, with further study needed.

Would certainly be disturbing if the current vaccine is ineffective for those exposed to this strain.

No doubt studies are already being undertaken to test antigenic cross-reactivity between this new strain and the one used for designing the vaccines. It would be very straightforward to start fabricating a version 2.0 of the vaccine tailored to this strain, to be deployed where the new strain is spreading.

It is a potential nightmare, though, as there will still be issues of safety, efficacy, and deployment of a new vaccine etc.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Acer
Date: December 20, 2020 01:34PM
The virus would like to thank the no-lockdown, no-mask, herd-immunity-without-vaccine crowd for providing the tens of millions of human petri dishes with which to improve itself.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: December 20, 2020 02:06PM
The Coronavirus Is Mutating. What Does That Mean for Us? [nyti.ms]

Good info here. Scientists in the UK are not sure if the higher transmission is from the mutations, or from human behavior. "More study needed. "
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: December 20, 2020 02:15PM
[www.bbc.com]

European nations have begun to apply travel bans with the UK after it reported a more infectious and "out of control" coronavirus variant.

Ireland, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium are all halting flights and travel. The measures vary and are initially generally short-term.

An EU meeting will be held on Monday morning to discuss a more co-ordinated response...

The first case of the UK variant has also been detected in Italy, the Italian health ministry reported on Sunday. The patient is in isolation in Rome...

In the UK, it was first identified in the middle of October from a sample taken in September.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Sunday said the new strain "was out of control. We have got to get it under control", admitting that this was "an incredibly difficult end to frankly an awful year"...

Dr Catherine Smallwood, of WHO Europe, said that as of 20 December, the numbers in those countries were small, nine in Denmark and one each in the other two nations. But she said other countries had notified WHO of other variants "that also carry some of the genetic changes seen in the UK variant".


Ready for COVID round three?







Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2020 02:17PM by Sarcany.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: bfd
Date: December 20, 2020 02:52PM
All of these virus are not only capable of mutation, but in billions of reproductions, they're going to happen just because. It's going to be tough days ahead for all those with comorbidities - which could be as high as 45% of all Americans using 2017 data.1








1https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20043919v1
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: December 20, 2020 04:08PM
It's Mutated!
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 20, 2020 04:41PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
The Coronavirus Is Mutating. What Does That Mean for Us? [nyti.ms]

Good info here. Scientists in the UK are not sure if the higher transmission is from the mutations, or from human behavior. "More study needed. "

Yes. I'm pretty sure at this point that they know the mutations ARE causing it to be more contagious, therefore higher transmission rate (an example of this being the already-identified D614G, which increases the virus' affinity to the ACE2 receptor), but the question is also whether human behavior is having anything to do with the selection of particular mutations and/or increased mutation rate. (Fortunately, the higher transmission rate isn't being accompanied by a higher virulence/pathogenicity, but of course higher transmission means more people will get it, which means more might die.)

One guy in the comments of the virological.org website article I posted mentions the fact that in a subset of patients, they may be having persistent or recurrent corona infection, and such patients could effectively be a "cooking pot" for the virus ... that is, as the virus persists in such a patient, the various medications that are being administered to treat the virus are effectively selecting for particular viral mutations over others. It's perhaps analogous to someone using an antibiotic at only half-strength, where you might be selecting for the bugs that are at least partially resistant to the antibiotic. Of course, it could also be something else entirely, like that human behavior (in terms of social distancing and masking) is again selecting for a viral variants that are more transmissible.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2020 04:42PM by PeterB.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: sekker
Date: December 20, 2020 04:59PM
Vaccination cannot happen fast enough.
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: PeterB
Date: December 20, 2020 08:16PM
UPDATE, for those who haven't heard yet: some countries in the EU are now banning people coming in from the UK for this reason, and at least one couple was found in Italy having just come from the UK, testing positive for the new strain. And of course, the U.S., what are we doing...? De nada.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: More Bad News: "The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly."
Posted by: SteveO
Date: December 21, 2020 12:30AM
We are FIXING this FRAUD election! Sad!!!
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