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Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: samintx
Date: January 01, 2021 05:09PM
:
The US and Iran charged each other with ratcheting up tensions in the Persian Gulf as concerns about potential conflict build days before Iran marks one year since the US assassinated its most powerful military figure and less than three weeks before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

Iran appealed to the UN Security Council on Thursday to stop the US from conducting what it called heightened "military adventurism" in the Gulf and the Oman Sea, including dispatching nuclear-armed bombers to the region, declaring that it did not want conflict but would defend itself if necessary.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: January 01, 2021 05:46PM
A few things...

1. Lots of countries use the disorder surrounding a new administration in the US to exploit it for political points or worse. They plan all sorts of stuff ranging from silly attention-grabbing stunts to full-on invasions. The noise seems to be coalescing around an attack one of our allies in early January.

2. 45 has not given up on being a "war president" and would love to mire Biden's administration with a hopeless war. He's encouraging this.

3. You missed the bit in the news where they announced that they would be refining uranium at 20% purity. (They were limited to 3.67% by the agreement that we backed out from.)

4. Iran tends to move their troops and make big announcements and threats right before they come to the negotiating table so that it appears that they're negotiating from a position of power. This might actually be a sign that after all of our bad faith they are nevertheless willing to negotiate with the Biden administration.



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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: Speedy
Date: January 01, 2021 06:59PM
Good analysis of this situation.

Quote
Sarcany
A few things...

1. Lots of countries use the disorder surrounding a new administration in the US to exploit it for political points or worse. They plan all sorts of stuff ranging from silly attention-grabbing stunts to full-on invasions. The noise seems to be coalescing around an attack one of our allies in early January.

2. 45 has not given up on being a "war president" and would love to mire Biden's administration with a hopeless war. He's encouraging this.

3. You missed the bit in the news where they announced that they would be refining uranium at 20% purity. (They were limited to 3.67% by the agreement that we backed out from.)

4. Iran tends to move their troops and make big announcements and threats right before they come to the negotiating table so that it appears that they're negotiating from a position of power. This might actually be a sign that after all of our bad faith they are nevertheless willing to negotiate with the Biden administration.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 01, 2021 08:33PM
My concern is this is the real reason he returned from Mara Lago early.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 01, 2021 08:34PM
Quote
sekker
My concern is this is the real reason he returned from Mara Lago early.

I really hope that's a wrong guess!
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: Ted King
Date: January 01, 2021 08:45PM
I think Trump will need the approval or acquiescence of at least Israel and Saudi Arabia to get into an armed conflict with Iran. I think those countries are going to look at the long term risk to the relations with Biden and decide not to okay any of Trump's hair-brained schemes to get into a shoot-out with Iran.

I also think the American military establishment would push back as hard as it can.

With Trump, you never know because he has an unstable ego. He may not want to go the armed conflict route with Iran because he may fear it will hurt his prospects for the future more than help them. Or his obsession with not being portrayed as a loser may lead him to try every gambit he has at his disposal.

My guess at the moment is that there won't be armed conflict with Iran - at least not large scale armed conflict.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 01, 2021 08:56PM
He came into office proclaiming his absorbance of foreign entanglements, that was before his encounter with COVID and it's impact. I think we ought to settle for just getting to the point where he has no further authority - if we can get there.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: Don C
Date: January 01, 2021 09:50PM
I don't know if he is really smart enough to try this, but he might be dumb enough, to start a war so that he can say that he can't leave office with a war getting under way.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: bfd
Date: January 02, 2021 12:16AM
He's a chicken-s-hit, not a chicken hawk…
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 02, 2021 12:33AM
Quote
bfd
He's a chicken-s-hit, not a chicken hawk…

He's also unhinged and other nations know this; unless it carries an immediate gain for them, they won't be reacting to a final Trump initiative.

Our own military won't either.

Enough is enough!!
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: SteveO
Date: January 02, 2021 12:39AM
He's not well in the head. No telling what could happen. I agree there would be push-back all around, although he has done his Pentagon shuffling so who knows where that could lead.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: Rolando
Date: January 02, 2021 01:24AM
Quote
Sarcany
3. You missed the bit in the news where they announced that they would be refining uranium at 20% purity. (They were limited to 3.67% by the agreement that we backed out from.)
You are correct, The US backed out of the agreement.

Quote
RgrF
Our own military won't either.
I'm not sure he could not find someone to obey an order to start a war. The top guy might refuse, but he still is the Commander In Chief and I doubt the order could be found illegal. I'm sure there are plenty of future contractors/mercanaries still in service and wanting to show how tough they are!



San Antonio, TX (in the old city)


"All that is required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
“Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." - Eli Weisel

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

"I don’t want to see religious bigotry in any form. It would disturb me if there was a wedding between the religious fundamentalists and the political right. The hard right has no interest in religion except to manipulate it." - Billy Graham 1981

"Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise" - Barry Goldwater
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: $tevie
Date: January 02, 2021 01:25AM
Quote
Sarcany
4. Iran tends to move their troops and make big announcements and threats right before they come to the negotiating table so that it appears that they're negotiating from a position of power. This might actually be a sign that after all of our bad faith they are nevertheless willing to negotiate with the Biden administration.
That's how I see it.



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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 02, 2021 08:48AM
In any case,

In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

If there is a coherent strategy here, it is...umm...opaque, at best.
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Re: Iran US tensions heat up
Posted by: samintx
Date: January 03, 2021 12:16PM
Quote
pdq
In any case,

In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

If there is a coherent strategy here, it is...umm...opaque, at best.

TV news said to show Iran we don’t wan confrontation.
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